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Game of Thrones: A smash hit waiting to happen?

Filed Under: Editorial

Will Game of Thrones become a hit for HBO or just another decent show?  Certainly from the fans’ point of view seeing the story we love retold on screen will be exciting. But will the story capture the imagination of the general public?

The general consensus among the fan base is that the show is destined for success. And it seems to have the recipe for becoming the next True Blood or Sopranos. The characters, the setting, the intrigue, the action, the romance… all add up to a show that people will want to watch and talk about the next day around the water cooler. The quality of the show seems to be there as well. A great cast, an amazing crew, and show runners that are doing their best to stay faithful to the books while keeping the budget down.

But as we know, quality doesn’t always translate into a large audience. Look at The Wire, as an example. It was widely considered one of the greatest TV shows of all time, yet it never did capture the imagination of the general public. It’s ratings were low and on any other network, it would have been canceled after a season or two. So what was the problem?

One issue may have been the gritty urban setting, which could have turned a number of viewers off. Unfortunately a medieval fantasy setting may be even more of a turn-off to the average viewer. Then there is the genre, The Wire exists in the crime drama genre. The amount of crime dramas on TV are numerous and capturing the public’s imagination in that setting proved to be difficult. Fantasy doesn’t have the quantity of shows that crime dramas do, but the fantasy shows that are out there are low-budget and low-quality which may hurt Thrones‘ public perception. Lastly there is the aspect of characters with moral ambiguity. Sometimes people just like a basic good-vs.-evil story and a show with realistic characters may be depressing to the average viewer who’s just looking for some escapism. The Wire had a lot of these “gray” characters. Guess what? Thrones does too.

So where does that leave us? Will Game of Thrones become a phenomenon on the level of True Blood or just another The Wire, a great show but one that failed to capture a large audience? It could go either way. One advantage for Thrones’ is it’s passionate fan base. That passion is infectious and I’ve already seen how it can spread and add potential viewers. But will that be enough to make the show into the huge hit we are all hoping for?

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54 Comments

  1. Juhan
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 12:58 pm | Permalink

    First!

    Of course it will be a smash hit.

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  2. Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:14 pm | Permalink

    What kind of viewership does Legend of the Seeker get? That's on a network channel as opposed to a pay channel. Might give you an idea of the kind of viewership one could expect.____(Speaking in terms of a genre piece. I know the shows and stories are not that similar.)____Additionally, it is my understanding that True Blood boosted subscriptions significantly. If GoT manages to do the same we can almost guarantee more than a couple seasons.

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  3. Jim
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 1:16 pm | Permalink

    I am really hoping it does become a hit. I have purchased A Game of Thrones for 10 people now as a “you must read this!!!” and only one person has said “eh…” our taste often differs though and he always acts like something that I enjoy (book, movie, food, etc…) is drivel, so honestly I think he chose to not like the book for different reasons. Otherwise every single person loved it, bought and read the rest, and even ranks the series in their top favorite books. I am nearly banking on a similar reaction to the show, maybe more so since there are those so many of those odd non-readers out there.

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  4. Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:20 pm | Permalink

    We, the fans are confident that it will be great. But as the post suggests, that's simply not enough. Best shows don't get the highest number of viewers, and many great ones get canceled early.

    Take a Lost for example. In the beginning it had over 20 million viewers. But as the series become more and more complex, with a single story line running for 6 seasons, number of viewers was dropping to 11 millions this final season has now. And the show is better and better each season. Problem is that average viewer is not looking for complex story, or characters that takes a while to figure out (gray). Most need a simple who's done it type of show like CSI or other crappy police procedural (and they all pull 20 million viewers) despite all being the same and boring to watch.

    But, hopefully Game of Thrones will have enough fans of its on in the beginning and that number will grow over time to keep the series on air for all 7 seasons.

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  5. Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:24 pm | Permalink

    Mmmhh, I think Thrones might take a lil while for the general audience to warm up to. It is not a series you sit down and watch for just the fun of it. You have to be involved with the characters, the setting and the storylines if you plan to sit this one through. Some people, like me, would choose to watch it solely because it is that complicated. Others may not choose the same. That's a risk you ultimately take with a series like this one, but it doesn't fail to disappoint the ones willing to give it a chance.

    Its passionate fans do Thrones a whole world of good. We will watch it just to see how it turned out, which gives a good rating for the pilot at the very least. Furthermore, HBO is just the right channel for Thrones to be on. It allows for the story to play out in full without it being compromised in any way. That certainly helps, but can also be off-putting. It's a two-way thing most days. Either you're all for the HBO-approach to battle and blood and characterisation, or you're not.

    From this particular European's point of view, I can see a lot of good in Thrones being where it is. Being given the thought and the excitement over it so far, I think it'll continue to generate a stronger fan base in the time to come. People familiar with fantasy novels will check it out because of its name and status in that particular realm of novelling, people familiar with some of the actors might tune in to see them work their magic, people who're attracted to the big stuff like the series Rome will check this newie out… I can go on and on, but I think our chances of getting at least one season (and probably more) in are pretty good so far!

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  6. Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:29 pm | Permalink

    It's really up to the show. Once it starts airing, if the quality is there the buzz will grow and then it'll be a hit. It might take a full season to really do that, or it could surpass True Blood right away. We'll see. Having a huge set of great actors is a solid plus. Emmy nomination for Peter Dinklage or Lena Headey would add a lot to that.

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  7. Rer
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:30 pm | Permalink

    Honestly only time will tell.

    What the show does have going for it is that it is an HBO production. No matter the setting or genre people will usually tune into a new HBO show for the first few episodes to see if it is good.

    I completely agree with the cliche police/CSI procedural drivel comment. To many many people buy into the motivationaless white hat vs black hat and completely ignore the conscience and motivations that propel people. It drives me nuts that some people are so dense that they actually believe that people are either pure evil or pure good.

    One thing I think they should do before the series premieres (if it's picked up) is to do like they did with True Blood. The fake websites, promotionals and you tube virals and such.

    This is all just my opinion of course.

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  8. Mozart1986
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    I think that the best thing going for the TV series is the books. When you read the books you can't help getting sucked in, no matter what your taste in genre. I usually read the classics like Dostoyevski and Steinbeck and Camus, etc, and I hate fantasy. I hate LotR, I hate Harry 'fucking' Potter and David Gemmell and everything with magic. Yawl might contend that those are kiddy fantasy series and I've not been introduced to the really good stuff. And of course you'd be right. But if we consider public perception of fantasy, which my perception was, generally, then thats pretty much on the pulse of the average consumer. The only reason I started reading ASoI&F was because a friend of mine told me about it and said explicitly that it wasn't like your average fantasy series. He hated magic as well. And he was right, it was like heroin. It totally hooks you. Word of mouth has been this series biggest seller and its hooked people in who would never touch a fantasy series usually.

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  9. Mozart1986
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:32 pm | Permalink

    So, now here is my main point. Imagine GoT is just a big advert for ASoI&F. Its just a big TV ad for the books. Its gaurenteed to increase readership. Once it does that I predict that it will increase the fanbase exponentially, just like the books spread before, cross genre, and with every new reader you've got a new viewer, or with every 10 new readers you've got 9 new viewers.

    So because of this, and its very speculative, I believe by the start of series two GoT will be a sensational hit, just because I think that the readership is gonna rocket.

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  10. Arctor
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 7:05 pm | Permalink

    Usually the books get a face-lift when a movie or tv series comes out. I'm looking forward to see what the new covers look like (I'd also like to get my hands on some hardcover copies, I destroy paperbacks!).

    Unlike most primetime networks HBO has a fanbase all on it's own. That happens to be most subscribers (Who pays extra just for the movie channels?). Any new show is going to be watched by that fanbase.

    I worry that the genre puts off people who actually watch the show. There is also the fact that a good portion of the cast/characters are children who are going to get a lot of time on screen, and some people just can't relate to kids. In the books you can kind of forget that they are children, as they have a maturity of most adults nowadays. Seeing them on screen could put people off though.

    Every other aspect of the show thus far (plot/production/talent) shouldn't scare anyone off. It's up to the pilot to prove to the people who hate fantasy, that this is truly a great story.

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  11. Posted February 12, 2010 at 7:08 pm | Permalink

    I think a huge aspect to contribute to the viewership will just be word of mouth. True Blood did definitely not start off with the amount of viewers that it has now. I think a lot of people were skeptical about it because of the whole vampire thing, but its viewership grew because so many people heard such great things about the show. Now, GoT has to deal with the same skepticism about the fantasy aspect. But I think once people watch the show and realize it's so much more than that, the word of mouth will kick in and it will be clear sailing for this *hopefully* amazing show.

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  12. Zak Undersn
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 7:09 pm | Permalink

    That's right. I really hope it gets the success that ASOIAF deserves, but well, it's not the first time a great show doesn't get the audience it should, nor the first time a mediocre show/movie is made based on a great book/comic. The only thing we can do is to hope.

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  13. Vladimir
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 7:17 pm | Permalink

    As far as I am concerned the series can have just enough publicity for HBO to film all the books. It would be great for Martin, his books and future quality tv projects for the series to be as popular as possible, but I don't think that fans would mind less popular show that won't degrade the quality of Martin's storytelling and, having in mind other fantasy book adaptations, for once leave us – I dare to say this – completely satisfied.

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  14. Ondy2112
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 7:18 pm | Permalink

    I agree with this but I don't like the fact that the show being a hit means my beloved books go mainstream!

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  15. שמיל
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 7:22 pm | Permalink

    אני רק רוצה לראות את הפיילוט

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  16. Posted February 12, 2010 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    High valiryan? :)

    Actually, I do not know how to answer to this post.
    I guess I am too subjective as a fan.

    But I think the show has prospect, because of some elemnts like: juicy story, pretty people (and the prettiest are the most dangeours, too – folks like it), promissing productin team, some big names known to vast audience, crim story inside it (Who killed Jon Arryn?), and so on..

    It could be pretty much succefull. but we will see (I hope).

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  17. Sir D
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 8:48 pm | Permalink

    I for one will be very happy if Thrones becomes the next The Wire. Five episodes of first class TV, that would be something…

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  18. mwj
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 9:27 pm | Permalink

    I think the real question is: can HBO successfully sell a show like this to their existing subscriber base? It's telling that they were able to sell the Sopranos, Entourage and True Blood, but not the Wire, Deadwood, or Carnivale.

    There are some points to be made in its favor. AGOT is certainly more escapist than the Wire was, and it lacks some of the traits that made both Deadwood (idiosyncratic speech rhythms) and Carnivale (general weirdness) difficult. On the other hand, it has a difficulty all its own: a lot of politics and history, all taking place in a world not our own. I think this aspect of AGOT will be the hardest to sell, and may be what the writers end up leaving behind.

    Which might be too bad – the politics and history are a big part of what make the novels so enjoyable. One adds a lot of intrigue, the other a lot of mystery. I hope they can keep some of that, but I'll understand if they decide they can't.

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  19. mary
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    High Hebrew :) (גם אני)

    I'm really more worried about the show`s future seasons. Everything about the process makes me feel that we are going to see the pilot as the first episode of the first season (blind fan-optimism? may be…), but I hope that Firefly`s case is not what GoT will eventually face.

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  20. Steve
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 9:33 pm | Permalink

    I'd be fine if HBO just buys a season. It doesn't seem likely that this show could be a 'smash hit'.

    Some people (not pointing fingers) think they are above the mass viewership. If they weren't so concerned about what makes them better, slapping each other on the back at obscure web blogs, and wailing years-long dirges about canceled shows, I might think they are right.

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  21. Posted February 12, 2010 at 9:43 pm | Permalink

    I thought True Blood really took off after the first season was over and everyone went out and got the DVD. I can see the same for Thrones. It may also depend on the lead in show(s). If it get True Blood as a lead in then I can see it getting carry over ratings.

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  22. Dennis Brennan
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 10:17 pm | Permalink

    I pointed out these concerns before. If I were a producer of the show (or an HBO executive considering whether to greenlight the series), I would think that the big marketing hurdles for the show to develop an audience are:

    - It's a fantasy. Fantasy movies have an uneven track record (hey, Jackson's Lord of the Rings, and the Harry Potter films, and Wizard of Oz, but on the other hand… virtually everything else).

    - It's a fantasy that takes place on a completely different world than our own contemporary world or a historical world. So unlike "True Blood" or Harry Potter or Narnia or Lost or Twilight or even Beauty and the Beast, the viewer has to obtain an emotional connection to characters who don't live in a world that the typical viewer will have any familiarity with at all. Jackson's Lord of the Rings managed this, as did Star Wars, but these are the exceptions and not the rules. The Ron Moore version of Battlestar Galactica didn't even try to do this– nominally it's a non-Earth setting, but come on, their characters are contemporary Americans in space.

    (continued on next post)

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  23. Dennis Brennan
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 10:18 pm | Permalink

    - It's got children as prominent characters, from the outset. Some potential viewers will therefore wrongly conclude that this is a show _for_ children.

    - Its setting may suggest to many viewers that it's mostly a swashbuckling adventure story, or mostly a romantic story. Some viewers may initially tune in, expecting to find that kind of story, but then be disappointed when it turns out to focus on other genres as well (such as intrigue/backstabbing or actual no-kidding magic fantasy).

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  24. sjwenings
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 10:57 pm | Permalink

    People will be asking themselves "Is this the type of fantasy story thats actually good, or is it one of the sucky ones"?

    And then they factor in that HBO is doing it, and maybe make the connection to LOTR because of Sean Bean. I'm not really that worried about the fantasy aspect.

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  25. Who Is Jacopo Belbo
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    i imagine that the show will be fantastic and thusly get cancelled after two seasons. look, let's face it. the american tv audience is f**cking retarded on the whole. the hbo viewership is slightly better but it still sucks. most any show that is originial, creative and really well done …. especially in the sci-fi/fantasy genre is guaranteed to not do well with 'average schlubs' and thus get canceled. Let me list a series of both network and pay channel shows that were amazing and innovative and got sh*t canned: Firefly, Dead Like Me, Wonderfalls, Deadwood, Carnivale, Terminator: TSCC, Dollhouse, … ok, let's just stop the list there because I am already getting sad.

    I think the first hurdle that GoT passes is it is likely not to suck an be totally cheesy. The source material, the HBO and the people making the show almost guarantee that it will be quality and not Legend Of The Seeker (which is based on basically the worst fantasy books ever and whos production is seemingly done by retarded children).

    The second hurdle is it is not on FOX. FOX is where great sci-fi/fantasy shows go to die. HBO will kill a show too early too, ROME, but it has seemed to learn its lesson and allowed even a mediocre ratings but critically acclaimed show like the Wire to run for multiple seasons. But HBO is still television so while it is the best place in terms of patience for ratings it is still likely to cancel the show if the ratings sag.

    The third hurdle is the source material. Well I think we can say that there is no problem there. A. it is probably the best and most beloved fantasy to be put into any kind of production aside from LotR and B. unlike other book to tv shows the fan base for ASoIaF is far more rabid than almost anything short of LotR and HP. I mean who had really read those crap books that Trueblood was based on before the show came out? How many websites and blogs and even pre-pilot buzz in the press about that show. Yeah. None. Now the draw back is the fantasy genre itself. The Trueblood comparisons are not valid here because for some reason in our culture (i am looking squarely at you 15 year old girls) vampires are all the rage. Especially hunky vampires. People go gaga for vampires and people hate fantasy. Now is GoT typical fantasy?, No. But the regular joe is not that discerning so there is a potential draw back there.

    Another consideration is HBO's marketing/buzz/and show placement. How much and how effectively will HBO sell the show? Advertise and pimp the show? How will it place the show in its line-up to best effect (ie what show will it pair it with on which night?). All of these play a huge role in whether or not the show will be successful. I would personally like to see it somehow paired with Trueblood maybe a 12 week winter (Jan-Mar 2011) run on sunday night after Trueblood at 10pm, GoT at 11pm? Of course that is probably a pipe dream.

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  26. Chris
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 11:08 pm | Permalink

    I'll put my bet down that it will only air 2 seasons..that's it!

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  27. Mogons
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:11 pm | Permalink

    I think tghe moral ambiguity issue actually works in AGoT’s favor. Remember that The Sopranos was very popular and it required viewers to identify with a cast of characters which consisted almost entirely of vicious criminals. A Song of Ice and Fire has more graphic violence, yes; but it also has more “good” characters to balance out the bad ones along with a whole host of morally challenged people in between. And I predict that the most popular characters will actually be the morally ambiguous ones, Tyrion and the later Jaimie and others.

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  28. Lynon
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

    I think it will do well, but a lot of it depends on how it is advertised. They need to show the general public the quality of what they are making (in terms of budget), and let people know that it is being aired. Another idea would be to show off Sean Bean as much as possible. The Lord of the Rings connection could do it some good in terms of drawing in viewers, as a lot of the general public will have good memories of the films. Again, I think in whatever tv spots or newspaper/magazine articles they use, they should try to show the faces of any well-known cast members, big names draw in crowds.

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  29. nii
    Posted February 12, 2010 at 7:06 pm | Permalink

    I just want to watch the pilot.

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  30. Lord Ned's Head
    Posted February 13, 2010 at 1:09 am | Permalink

    I'll post more specifically about Thrones later (leaving my hotel room in a min for my niece's Bat Mitzvah), but I did want to offer a reason for the Wire's lack of success with the general populace…

    IT'S IN FRIGGIN BALTIMORE MAN!!!!

    Next to Ace of Cakes who the hell wants to watch a show that takes place in Baltimore??? ;P

    Yeah I say this mostly tongue-in-cheek. Once the word gets out about the quality of a show setting probably doesn't matter that much. I do know that I had no interest in the show from the beginning though when I found out it took place in Baltimore.

    I'm not trying to bag on the city. I've been there many times and I love the inner harbor area. I just don't get excited about the idea of investing my time in a series taking place there.

    That said, I've still never seen The Wire, but it is on my short list of shows (right after Dexter) to watch.

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  31. Josh.J
    Posted February 13, 2010 at 1:09 am | Permalink

    The fantasy genre is always a risk in the tv / film industry. the general public usually has little or no interest in the so called 'sword and sorcery' settings. If HBO does decide to take the project on, they need to come up with a smart marketing strategy. Rather than just marketing this as a fantasy adaptation from a best-selling author, they need to capture the scale and the historical aspect of the story.

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  32. Lord Ned's Head
    Posted February 13, 2010 at 1:14 am | Permalink

    Something else to think about. How much money has HBO made on DVD sales of "good" shows like The Wire and Rome that have been cancelled much too early for critic's and fan's liking? I know I just shelled out a C-Note for the complete series set of Rome (The best show evah!).
    If they are making some decent bank off of these sales, then the figures should be included in the discussion of how long to keep the series going. With critical acclaim, hardcore fan buzz, decent subscription hikes, a few possible emmys and the potential for some DVD sales to bloster profits, the show could last longer than some suspect. I hope anyway!

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  33. Hannah
    Posted February 13, 2010 at 2:44 am | Permalink

    I'm a big True Blood fan, and, just like you said, I got into it after the first season from the DVD's. I didn't read the books until after I watched the show. I completely expect the same type of thing to happen with A Game of Thrones- fans of the books will be the original viewers of the show, followed by fans of the show renewing lots of buzz for the books. I"m not expecting the show to become popular like American Idol or something, but I expect rich quality programming from HBO and it will catch on.

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  34. Posted February 13, 2010 at 10:07 am | Permalink

    Hm,

    there is another quite important factor for a show to become a success and thus staying on the air: international marketability.

    As Lord Ned's Head said: who want's to see a show (with an original story) taking place in Baltimore? My apology to anyone living there, but I would have to search it out on a map, and I guess that's true for most Europeans. Miami, Las Vegas, New York? Those are places everyone is kind of familiar with (or better: has an idea about based on countless other movies and TV shows). Baltimore? Not much of a chance. The same is true for a Western series like Deadwood.

    That being said, aSoIaF may be taking place in a fantasy setting, but it has already been translated in all major languages and has fans all over the world. And again: the All-Time Worldwide Box office list at imdb.com is dominated by fantasy and SF titles. OK: most of them are PG13 fare, but developing a program for adults only is always a risk – in ANY genre.

    Lastly, why did LOST lose so many viewers? Maybe because they keep fucking around with people's expectations to uncover at least SOME of all those unanswered questions for too long. AND they took out a lot of the suspense by letting characters come back "from the dead" on a regular basis. I still want to know if it all makes some sort of sense in the end, but I cared a lot more when the series started…

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  35. Who Is Jacopo Belbo
    Posted February 13, 2010 at 12:18 pm | Permalink

    or because lost sucked and always had? or because lost was better when they did it in the 70s and it had ginger and marry anne and no smoke monster/others/resurrection?

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  36. Lord Ned's Head
    Posted February 13, 2010 at 3:55 pm | Permalink

    Gillian's Island had others too! Or don't you remember when the Harlem Globetrotters guest starred?

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  37. Lord Ned's Head
    Posted February 13, 2010 at 3:56 pm | Permalink

    WARNING!!! JOHN LOCKE SPOILERS!!!!!!! ;P

    BTW, Lost is rocking harder than ever. And just for the record, no one has come back from the dead… At least not yet!

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  38. Posted February 13, 2010 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    I'm pretty sure people will get the idea that this is not a show for kid as soon as Ned takes off Gared's head. Ondy 2112, I don't know why you wouldn't want to see Martin get the respect he deserves. He is often reffered to as one of the greatest fantasy writers of our generation, but he doesn't get credit for just being one of the greatest writers for his originality and unpredictability. Personally the more people who read ASOIAF the happier I am. It's too good of a story for just us to know about.

    I think the characters grey personalities will be o.k. Deadwood had these types too and it worked for them. I'm just hoping that the show goes through ASOS. This series has a plot where there is always something going on, so as long as they choose their clifhangers with care they should have the buzz they need to build a huge following. Besides with so many reviews talking about the potential for this series imagine all the attention it will recieve when people actually see Dinklage talking shit to Thorne.

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  39. Posted February 13, 2010 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    I have all kinds of faith in HBO's alredy there fan base. I thought True Blood was corny when I first watched it. I didn't hear any hype for it either. I just saw new show on HBO and I watched. As I said I thought it was corny. That didn't stop me from watching it. It was still done right even for the bad acting of Sookie (she is so fine). Plus HBO is still upset for giving up on DEADWOOD and ROME two fabulous series that they pulled the plug on to early. They'll do just fine. After all.

    It's not T.V. it's HBO.

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  40. Vacuous Wastrel
    Posted February 14, 2010 at 12:49 pm | Permalink

    Excuse me, but… "just another 'The Wire'"??? I wish! I'd far prefer that to being another 'True Blood', certainly.

    Which part of the Wire are we meant to be avoiding? The part where it was successfull enough to be allowed to run its entire natural life until the creators wanted to end it? The part where it was extremely successful on DVD and will be for years to come (I can go to a shop here and get any major US series that hasn't just come out at about 50% discount if not more – The Wire is the only thing that is always at full price, and that isn't any cheaper second-hand*)? Or the part where it's universally acclaimed as the greatest thing that's ever been on television ever?

    To me, that sounds pretty good.

    *Note: when, in April last year, the Telegraph called it arguably the best show ever, it pointed out that the first series had been available on DVD for seven years – and yet all five series had continually been in the to 40 DVDs on Amazon (and for most of that time in the top 20). In 2008, after six years of sales, the first series reached #1 on Amazon! Sales in 2007 were four times higher than in 2006, and sales in 2008 were at least twice as high as in 2007. Its eventual broadcast on TV here (at 11.20 at night, one a night, no omnibus, no repeats, no internet repeats, randomly missing days and changing broadcast times…) was a cultual event – every newspaper went mad (the Guardian started up a special blog to react to the series episode-by-episode), the British Film Institute drooled over it… everybody I know either saw it and then bought the dvd, didn't see it but bought the dvd, or hasn't seen it yet but will buy the dvd if it comes down in price at all – even people I've lent the DVDs to have gone out and bought their own copies.

    The Wire may not have got a lot of viewers at the time, but it got enough to keep it going, and it's massively internationally famous and will continue to have strong DVD sales for years and years to come – long after, I suspect, True Blood has been forgotten.

    That's something to aspire to, not to avoid.

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  41. Tom
    Posted February 14, 2010 at 4:05 pm | Permalink

    HBO makes a killing on dvd sales like Vacous mentioned and had they known Rome would make so much on DVDs it would probably still be on HBO right now. They wont make that mistake again and GOT will benefit from that and the success of the shows like Trueblood.

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  42. Posted February 14, 2010 at 4:26 pm | Permalink

    You make some very good points. I'm just afraid that even if Thrones is great but doesn't get the ratings, HBO may still decide to cancel it since it is going to be a much more expensive show than The Wire was. The good thing is DVD sales have become huge. Like you say The Wire is growing in popularity even now because of DVD sales. And like Tom below me says, HBO seems to have learned their lesson in regards to canceling a show before factoring in the DVD sales, so hopefully if the ratings for Thrones aren't great the word-of-mouth and/or critical success will translate to good DVD sales.

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  43. Dahn
    Posted February 14, 2010 at 9:35 pm | Permalink

    One thing is troubling me about this. The common consensus here looks like the show will have a decent amount of viewers from the start and then grow on word of mouth. The problem is that this will be a complex continuos story. People "stepping in" the series who have missed the first couple of episodes but who decide to watch it because the (obviously) rave reviews will have a difficult time understanding what is going on. There's only so much information you can give in a "last week" introduction. Dumbing things down is not an option so I predict that at least the first series will not be a smash hit. After people have a chance to watch it from the start (because of a DVD release) it might become a smash hit.

    Off course if you accept the reality that people who have missed the first couple of episodes can watch them later through torrents this problem is not as big. Maybe HBO should do early reruns.

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  44. Ninepenny
    Posted February 15, 2010 at 12:39 am | Permalink

    If I were them I'd certainly do early re-runs.

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  45. Posted February 15, 2010 at 4:51 am | Permalink

    yes, I agree with the re-runs. HBO is really good about replaying previous episodes throughout the week. And today, you can just download the episodes if you really want to see them.

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  46. About Yea High
    Posted February 15, 2010 at 8:22 pm | Permalink

    Re-runs and other things. In fact, even if the first season doesn't get a windfall of gigantic ratings, there's always DVD sales. I hadn't watched a single episode of the first seasons of The Wire, Deadwood, or Dexter until I went out and got the first season of each to see if it was something I could invest time in.

    When I decided these shows were for me, then I became a regular viewer. I also later bought the DVD's (though I am a collector).

    I'll probably buy multiple boxed sets of Game of Thrones, just as gifts to other people. Like I did with the novels. "You must watch this, or you are a fool!"

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  47. Frank
    Posted February 16, 2010 at 8:20 am | Permalink

    The Wire is one of my favorite series, probably just beneath Six Feet Under which holds the top spot (forever). I always thought that The Wire might have missed the general at large because it really did show the whole system in the real-light instead of more defined good vs. evil. People don't necessarily want to view the truth, but fantasy.

    In that sense, Game of Thrones is good – it's fantasy. But is it also too real? That's the reason why I love the series so much, it kicks away all the typical fantasy conventions and tripes and presents us with real people with changing motives and perspectives. Just like The Wire. I would be willing to bet that if Game of Thrones (the series) fails to pick up audience, it's for this very same reason that The Wire also struggled with.

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  48. thebunk
    Posted February 17, 2010 at 11:54 am | Permalink

    I'm actually looking forward to this adaptation. Since you mentioned The Wire, if A Game of Thrones is half as good as The Wire, it will be an amazing show.
    I have been holding on reading the books until they are all out, tho the stories in the comic book adaptations are really promising.
    But anyway, The Wire is a great example to follow, however it is scary. The Wire was not a crime show, and its lack of success in the ratings was a sign of standing strong against the dumbing-down strategy to capture more audience (unlike CSI and other much less demanding series). But anyway, The Wire was not a crime show, it was a great story to happen to run in an urban environment.
    If A Game of Thrones TV series aspires to be a great story that happens to run in a fantasy environment, it must count with the commitment from HBO.
    I have waited a long time for the next The Wire, and the author of this article may have aimed too high mentioning the best TV series ever made. But if it becomes the next The Wire, oh, that will make the HBO network extremely proud.

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  49. Lois
    Posted February 18, 2010 at 11:04 am | Permalink

    Much of the success of True Blood is that the series contains many sex scenes, the audience likes it …
    I think, the fact that the characters are gray, Game of Thrones will be a hit.
    Here, in Spain, I'm spreading the song of ice and fire culture: D.
    Sorry, my English is not very good T.T.

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  50. World Dancer
    Posted February 18, 2010 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    No, not everyone likes the sex scenes. I had been planning to buy a subscription to HBO to watch True Blood, but after seeing the first two episodes, I determined that they were doing way more sex than I was at all comfortable with watching, and so chose not to buy in. After seeing bits and pieces of the second season when on vacation, I do not regret my choice in the least.

    Fans of the urban fantasy genre have had many discussions over how much sex is palatable, I can promise you the numbers are fairly equal between those who want more sex and those who are turned off by all the porn.

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  51. World Dancer
    Posted February 18, 2010 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    I think there's a factor no one else has brought up: Gritty fantasy such as ASOIAF is a bleeding edge trend in writing. The last trend was the kickass urban fantasy detective woman, of which Sookie Stackhouse in TrueBlood is one of the most popular examples. She's actually second generation on a trend that started in the very early '90s. It's only taken off since about 2006.

    ASOIAF is, I believe, the trailblazer of its kind and more in similar style are being picked up (Thorn & Bone quartet, Before They Were Hanged, etc.). This is to me the next breaking mass trend in fantasy. The only question to me is if the timing is right for the popular imagination to embrace the story. I think it might be, and that in this case the an additional year before the series begins (much as yesterday isn't soon enough for us) will only help.

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  52. World Dancer
    Posted February 18, 2010 at 3:36 pm | Permalink

    And remember, viewership isn't everything: How many people will buy HBO just to watch ASOIAF? I'm certainly considering it again. And even if I don't, I will be buying the DVDs. I think that's why the viewership numbers are so deceptive when it comes to estimating the actual popularity in DVD sales. Many people won't buy subscriptions, since they're basically purchased time, but will buy DVD sets, which are tangible items and allow them to see the shows again whenever they want, not just for a short period of time. You're also dealing with the coming of age of anime fans, who are used to purchasing entired TV shows sight unseen for high prices to accomodate language translation. I will bet you that there's a good quantity among DVD buyers who have never seen the show but only "heard good things about it."

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  53. Ian
    Posted February 20, 2010 at 4:58 am | Permalink

    HBO also puts its shows On demand the Monday following the initial airing, and keeps the whole season on throughout. So if you need to catch up you can. That's what I did with Rome. anyone with digital cable has the "hook up".

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  54. Ian
    Posted February 20, 2010 at 6:16 am | Permalink

    The Wire, whatever its ratings were, was, in my opinion, the greatest show in the history of television. As you watched it, you knew that what was being accomplished was not ordinary television. It was a diary of the fundamental injustice of American life, which America largely ignores, as it ignores the fundamentally unjust condition most of humanity lives in. It was a transcendent document of our times. HBO knew that the Wire was not only immensely entertaining, and drama at it's highest, but was also important. HBO is a subscription network and does not have advertisers to worry about. So it's reputation is of utmost importance. It's artistic credibility is the reason Martin Scorsese will produce a show on it and direct a pilot. I love A Song of Ice and Fire. What it expresses of the human heart and experience is complex and brilliant, and irregardless of it's genre, is art at its highest. But it can never be as important as The Wire. So if the vision and execution of the pilot of A Song of Ice and Fire isn't impeccable, it won't test as universally as thought, (because it does not have the pop sensibilities of True Blood, (which also has artistic credibility instantly from Alan Ball)) HBO won't feel the need to green light. So truly, the pilot is going to have to be spot on and riveting for HBO to move forward. I think at least.

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