Valar morghulis: All men (and women) must die. But when?
Welcome to Valar Morghulis, a weekly column about death and destruction in the wide world of Westeros. Each week, we’ll try to predict how likely every character on Game of Thrones is to breathe their last in the upcoming episode. We’ll also review what we got right, as well as what we got horribly wrong, last time.
Thankfully, last week’s episode, “Stormborn,” vindicated us. Unlike the first episode of the season, “Dragonstone,” “Stormborn” made like Game of Thrones and killed some people. We were beginning to worry.
Let’s take a look at what we got right:
"3. The Sand Snakes: 75%. Euron promised Cersei a gift, and that means someone’s head(s) is going to roll. Most of the people the people Cersei wants dead are in Dany’s forces, including the Sand Snakes, who conspired to kill Cersei’s daughter Myrcella. As they’re not very bright, the Sand Snakes’ number could be up."
Two out of three ain’t bad, right? Obara and Nymeria Sand were both brutally murdered by Euron Greyjoy during his vicious attack on Yara’s fllet. And we’d also like to point out that our prediction about the Sand Snakes not being very bright was spot on. How else would you describe taking on an armored mad man with a whip?
Now on to this week. Let’s start with that title. Previous monarchs in Westeros have employed a royal executioner known as the king’s justice. This episode is called “The Queen’s Justice.” Have Cersei or Dany named an executioner? That would help our body count.
****Percentages refer to how likely the character is to die, not survive.****
1-9. Jory-Cassel-picking-a-fight-with-Jaime-Lannister surprised
You had, like, three scenes in season 1. Why did you pick a fight with the Kingslayer? These are the characters we think most likely to die in Season 7. We hope they all have their affairs in order.
1. The Mountain: 100%. We’re keeping the Mountain at the top of the list so we’re sure we get one right. After all, he’s already dead.
2. Septa Unella: 75%. Last week saw Euron Greyjoy capture Ellaria and Tyene Sand, as well as his niece Yara Greyjoy. That means the dungeons of King’s Landing are going to be really crowded. And that Cersei will have new toys to play with. Neither is good for Unella, assuming she’s still alive.
3. Tyene Sand: 75%. Tyene is the only Sand Snake still alive, so she gets an entry all to herself. The bad news is she’s probably not long for this world. Sorry-not-sorry, Tyene.
4. Ellaria Sand: 75%. Euron captured Ellaria rather than kill her, but that doesn’t she’s safe. Euron will be taking Ellaria to Cersei, and we all know how kind and forgiving Cersei is.
5. Yara Greyjoy: 50%. Yara has slightly better odds of survival than Tyene or Ellaria, but Euron did want to murder her the last time he saw her. But he’s unpredictable, hence her 50/50 odds.
6. Theon Grejoy: 40%. Unless Gendry rows by, Theon might end up like poor Jack Dawson. Although it’d be a shame to lose him before we see him reckon with his shame.
7. Jorah Mormont: 35%. Every time we see Jorah, things are looking worse. Sam peeled off all his skin last week, so what’s next?
8. Grey Worm: 35%. Grey Worm has found happiness with Missandei. And now he’s headed off to storm Casterly Rock. Putting those two things together, we’re guessing something bad happens to Grey Worm this week.
9. Melisandre: 35%. Jon Snow and Davos are headed to Dragonstone, and Davos vowed to kill Melisandre should he ever see her again.
10-19. Wun-Wun-smashing-that-dude-into-the-wall surprised
When you shoot a giant with a crossbow, what do you think is going to happen? We wouldn’t be surprised if any of these people kick it.
10. Benjen Stark: 35%. Hopefully we don’t have to wait five seasons to see Uncle Benjen again. There’s only one season left you say? Okay, well, then things aren’t looking too hot for this already-dead warrior dedicated to taking on a vast army of ice zombies with no backup.
11. Randyll Tarly: 35%. Jaime Lannister courted Lord Tarly hard, and if he flips on Olenna, we expect it him to be on the front lines of the battle against Daenerys. The Tarly motto is, after all, “First in Battle.”
12. Bronn: 35%. Bronn hasn’t shown up yet, but when he does, the soldier of fortune will be right in the thick of things. Where people die.
13. Littlefinger: 35%. Littlefinger’s odds rise slightly this week, because he seems to quickly be wearing out his welcome with everyone. One word from Sansa, and Brienne will cut Littlefinger in half.
14. Qyburn: 28%. The former maester has risen to become Hand of the Queen to Cersei, but something tells us some of Qyburn’s little birds are still loyal to their former master, Varys.
15. Dickon Tarly: 25%. Dickon isn’t quite the jack wagon his father Randyll is, but he’s still a fighter, and should Randyll join with Jaime, Dickon will be in just as much danger of becoming dragon food as anyone else.
16. Dolorous Edd: 25%. Will Dolourous Edd be the last Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch? With the undead army on the way, the end could come for him at any moment.
17. Beric Dondarrion: 25%. There sure are a lot of already-dead people on this list. Anyway, Beric and crew are headed straight to the far north, the most dangerous place in Westeros.
18. Thoros of Myr: 25%. Thoros hasn’t died, but he’s in the same dangerous boat as Beric.
19. Edmure Tully: 25%. We’re going to see Edmure again, right? He’s not going to pass away offscreen like his uncle Brynden right?
20-30. Tywin-Lannister-sitting-on-the-toilet surprised
It was surprising, but the way he treated his family had to come back and bite him sooner or later. If these characters died in “The Queen’s Justice,” we’d raise an eyebrow.
20. Olenna Tyrell: 25%. As far as we can tell, Olenna is still on Dragonstone, where she is relatively safe. But based on her comments to Dany about being a dragon, she may be eager for bloodshed.
21. Viserion: 25%. With Qyburn’s giant crossbow in the mix, the odds of Viserion and the other dragons dying go up.
22. Rhaeghal: 25%. Plus, Dany doesn’t know about Cersei’s new toy, and may be overconfident enough to send her air force in without protection.
23. Drogon: 24%. Drogon is smarter than Rickon, right? He knows how to zig zag?
24. The Hound: 20%. We believe the Hound has some greater role to play, but as he approaches the Wall, his odds of dying go up.
25. Tormund Giantsbane: 20%. Tormund should have made it to Eastwatch by now. As we’ve said, this isn’t a safe area of the world to be right now.
26. Podrick Payne: 20%. The biggest danger to Podrick at the moment is accidentally getting clocked by the tower of power, Brienne of Tarth.
27. Brienne of Tarth: 10%. Jon might have departed Winterfell, but it still remains safe for everyone not named Littlefinger.
28. Meera Reed: 10%. Meera didn’t seem super-healthy last we saw her, but if she gets to Winterfell, her odds of survival go way up.
29. Euron Greyjoy: 10%. Euron was destruction incarnate last week, and we don’t see such a fearsome warrior dying AFTER the battle.
30. Nymeria: 10%. After being MIA since the second episode of the series, Nymeria returned a terror to behold. With that wolfpack in tow, we’re guessing Nymeria is quite safe for now.
31-48. Red-Wedding surprised
We would stake our life that these characters make it through “The Queen’s Justice.”
31. Jon Snow: 10%. Jon has departed Winterfell for Dragonstone. Unless Melisandre gets the urge to show everyone her party trick, he should be safe.
32. Varys: 10%. Varys jumps up the list this week on account of him apparently being on Dany’s s*** list, but isn’t in any immediate danger that we know of.
33. Yohn Royce: 10%. With Littlefinger as your boss, you’re never truly safe. But at least there are no armies for him to content with at the moment.
33. Davos Seaworth: 10%. Davos seems safe, but if he flies into a rage when (and if) he sees Melisandre, who knows what might happen?
34. Missandei: 10%. Characters who find love aren’t usually long for Westeros, but unlike Grey Worm, Missandei is still under Dany’s protection on Dragonstone.
35. Ghost: 9%. A scene with Ghost was deleted from last week’s episode, and if you’re not in an episode, you can’t be killed.
36. Samwell Tarly: 8%. Unless Sam catches greyscale, he’s safe for now.
37. Gilly (And little Sam): 8%. Same goes for Gilly and Little Sam. Just don’t bring any communicable diseases home with you, Sam.
38. Lyanna Mormont: 6%. Lyanna didn’t seem happy with Jon leaving Winterfell, but until the war with the undead kicks into high gear, she should be fine.
39. Cersei Lannister: 5%. Euron struck a major blow against Dany’s allies last week, and it should lead to escalation. Cersei should be safe this week as she plays with the toys Euron brings her. And by toys, we mean people.
40. Jaime Lannister: 5%. Jaime and Cersei are gearing up for war against the Mother of Dragons, which could be very dangerous for Ser Jaime. Unless he brings that giant crossbow with him.
41. Arya Stark: 2%. Arya is headed to Winterfell! Arya is headed to Winterfell! No way she dies before the show explores whatever feelings arise from that.
42. Sansa Stark: 1%. Jon left Sansa in charge of the North while he’s, and while she might not make all the right decisions, she’ll remain safe.
43. Tyrion Lannister: 1%. Tyrion is having to reign in Dany more and more, but is in little danger on Dragonstone.
44. Bran Stark: 1%. If Bran and Arya show up at Winterfell at the same time, our hearts will be full. And either way, Bran is safe south of the Wall for the moment.
45. Daenerys Targaryen: 1%. With her fleet eliminated, Dany could take more risks, but we don’t think she’s in mortal danger yet.
46. The Night King: 1%. The Night King is surrounded by an army of undead, and is unopposed north of the Wall. The Night King is safe until someone comes at him, bro.
47. Archmaester Ebrose: 1%. Ebrose hasn’t been super helpful to Sam so far this season, but the Citadel is still among the safest places in the Seven Kingdoms.
Next: Tourism Ireland adds scenes from “Stormborn” to its Game of Thrones Tapestry
How do you think we did? Who do you think is gonna bite it? Let us know, and we’ll be back to review our picks next Saturday.
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