Valar morghulis: All men (and women) must die. But when?
Welcome to Valar Morghulis, a weekly column about death and destruction in the wide world of Westeros. Each week, we’ll try to predict how likely every character on Game of Thrones is to breathe their last in the upcoming episode. We’ll also review what we got right, as well as what we got horribly wrong, last time.
Thanks to Daenerys and Drogon, we had a few deaths this past week on “Eastwatch.” Let’s take a look at our predictions from last week.
"3. Randyll Tarly: 70%. Technically, we don’t even know that Randyll isn’t dead already. He was present at the start of the battle, and then seemingly disappeared. That can’t be good."
Randyll survived the battle, but was quickly torched by Daenerys for refusing to bend the knee. After the way Randyll treated Samwell, we weren’t sad to see him go though.
"4. Dickon Tarly: 69%. Dickon’s whereabouts are unknown as well, and we know from the preview for “Eastwatch” that Dany is still lurking about with Drogon. Neither bodes well for poor Dickon. We like that guy."
Poor, stupid Dickon. While Randyll might have had it coming, we liked Dickon. Despite being given an out by both his father and Tyrion, Dickon chose to be roasted alongside his father. Farewell, Dickon. We barely knew ye.
Onto this week’s episode: “Beyond the Wall.” The title comes from Jon Snow’s mission to capture a wight…beyond the Wall. Get it?
Anyways, the episode looks incredibly dangerous, and we are guessing there will be a lot of casualties.
****Percentages refer to how likely the character is to die, not survive.****
1-11. Jory-Cassel-picking-a-fight-with-Jaime-Lannister surprised
You had, like, three scenes in season 1. Why did you pick a fight with the Kingslayer? These are the characters we think most likely to die in Season 7. We hope they all have their affairs in order.
1. The Mountain: 100%. Someday, someone will knock the Mountain off the top of our list. It might not be this week, though. For now, he’s already technically dead, so here he sits.
2. Thoros of Myr: 80%. Basically everyone who is heading north of the Wall makes our top ten, but Thoros and Beric rank higher due to their being more expendable than most. They have no plotline outside of this mission, so they have the lightest plot armor.
3. Beric Dondarrion: 79%. Beric ranks just below Thoros on account of him being a little more interesting, but should Thoros perish, Beric won’t be far behind. And without Thoros, Beric won’t be coming back from this death.
4. The Hound: 75%. The Hound is a ferocious fighter, one few can match. But the preview for “Beyond the Wall” shows our heroes running. The Hound doesn’t run so well since his fight with Brienne.
4. Tormund Giantsbane: 70%. We don’t want to see Tormund die, but trying to capture a wight sounds dangerous. And foolish.
6. Jorah Mormont: 68%. Jorah returned to Dany’s side just in time to join the most dangerous mission of his life. Could his age cause him to fall behind at a crucial moment?
7. Gendry: 67%. Bringing Gendry back only to kill him shortly after seems cruel, but it wouldn’t be the first time Game of Thrones has done it. (RIP the Blackfish.)
8. Jon Snow: 50%. Jon dying once more might seem outlandish, but anything can happen beyond the Wall. Happily, there is a red priest around who specializes in resurrection.
9. Grey Worm: 48%. We still don’t know Grey Worm’s fate, but we left him in a very tight spot at Casterly rock.
10. Littlefinger: 45%. Littlefinger is making his play to spread chaos in Winterfell, but with Arya and Bran back in town, he might have finally made a misstep.
11. Benjen Stark: 40%. Benjen was last seen north of the Wall, which is where we head this week. That could prove deadly for the already-dead Benjen.
12-21. Wun-Wun-smashing-that-dude-into-the-wall surprised
When you shoot a giant with a crossbow, what do you think is going to happen? We wouldn’t be surprised if any of these people kicked it.
12. Bronn: 38%. Call us crazy, but we didn’t like how Cersei was talking about our favorite mercenary last week. Does she have it in for him?
13. Dolorous Edd: 35%. Might Jon call his old friend Dolorous Edd for help while he’s north of the Wall? If so, that could be quite dangerous for the Lord Commander.
14. Varys: 30%. We’ve had a bad feeling about Varys ever since Melisandre predicted his death back in “Stormborn.” He seems safe, but we keep looking for daggers in the dark now. Thanks, Mel.
15. Qyburn: 30%. Qyburn is the brains behind many of Cersei’s ploys, making him a target. Would Dany be above an assassination?
16. Yara Greyjoy: 29%. We might not have seen Yara in a few weeks, but her odds won’t get any better as long as she remains locked in the dungeons of King’s Landing…or on Euron’s ship, whichever.
17. Edmure Tully: 28%. We still haven’t received proof that Edmure is still alive, but someone would have said something if he died, right?
18. Drogon: 25%. Dany did not promise to cease hostilities with Cersei, so another raiding party might be in order. And we’re guessing Qybrun has more scorpions around.
19. Rhaegal: 25%. What better way for Dany to force an armistice with Cersei than a little shock and awe? And what’s more shocking than three full grown dragons burning something to ash?
20. Viserion: 25%. See above.
21-32. Tywin-Lannister-sitting-on-the-toilet surprised
It was surprising, but the way he treated his family had to come back and bite him sooner or later. If these characters died in “Beyond the Wall” we’d raise an eyebrow.
21. Yohn Royce: 23%. Royce appeared to be conspiring with Littlefinger last week, and that could get him killed if Arya finds out.
22. Robett Glover: 23%. Ditto.
23. Theon Greyjoy: 22%. While Cersei is distracted by thoughts of an armistice, could Theon sneak into King’s Landing and try to rescue Yara? Sounds risky.
24. Melisandre: 20%. According to prophecy, Melisandre will die in Westeros. But she’s messed up more than one prophecy, and we think she’s left the continent for the moment.
25. Missandei: 18% No one wants to hurt Missandei right? That would make her death a shocker, a Game of Thrones specialty.
26. Podrick Payne: 17%. There might be a Littlefinger-led insurrection going on in Winterfell, and Pod would be on the front lines.
27. Brienne of Tarth: 16%. Likewise for Brienne, except she’s much more capable with a sword.
28. Tycho Nestoris: 15%. Things seem hunky dory with Cersei, but if you play with a snake, eventually you get bit.
29. Ghost: 14%. Well, at least we got a mention of Ghost mention last week, even if we didn’t see him. Hopefully that will change soon, but for now, Ghost is safe. Somewhere.
30. Euron Greyjoy: 13%. Euron is a madman, a highly skilled time-warping madman who is safe for now.
31. Meera Reed: 11%. Meera will have reached her home in Greywater Watch by now, a floating castle no one knows the location of.
32. Davos Seaworth: 11%. Davos isn’t normally in much trouble, but sitting at Eastwatch hardly seems safe with the Night King lurking about.
33-45. Red-Wedding surprised
We would stake our life that these characters make it through “Beyond the Wall.”
33. Archmaester Ebrose: 10%. Ebrose isn’t quite a villain, but he’s been sufficiently dickish this season that we wouldn’t mourn him if he died.
34. Daenerys Targaryen: 10%. Hopefully Dany got all her anger out of her system and stays on Dragonstone for a bit. But there is a war going on, and she could fly off at any moment.
35. The Night King: 10%. Odds are low that the Night King will die this soon, but Jon and his crew are wandering around north of the Wall, and Jon has a Valyrian steel sword. Maybe they’ll get lucky.
36. Nymeria: 9%. Arya seems safe for now, and until Nymeria is needed, we doubt we’ll see the direwolf.
37. Samwell Tarly: 7%. Sam has officially left the Citadel, which ordinarily would raise Sam’s odds. But we need to see where Sam lands first.
38. Gilly (And little Sam): 6%. Gilly and little Sam hold the key to Jon’s parentage, which makes them safe for now.
39. Lyanna Mormont: 5%. Unlike some other lords of the North, Lyanna is not plotting treason, so she’s safe. Plus, no one wants to mess with her.
40. Cersei Lannister: 4%. Cersei seems to have gone off the deep end, but is safe in King’s Landing unless Dany’s dragons show up.
41. Tyrion Lannister: 4%. Tyrion snuck in and out of King’s Landing with only a few dead Gold Cloaks to show for it. This week, it looks like Tyrion will sit by the fire and drink wine with Dany, snug and safe.
42. Bran Stark: 4%. Bran’s reconnaissance mission north of the Wall was a cool trick, but we think Bran has a bigger part to play in the war to come.
43. Arya Stark: 3%. Arya playing detective was fun, and she’s got eyes in the back of her head now thanks to the Faceless Men. It’s very hard to get the drop on her
44. Sansa Stark: 2%. Winterfell is looking more dangerous than before, but with Brienne at her side, Sansa should be safe for now.
45. Jaime Lannister: 1%. We dropped Jaime to last in recognition of surviving his valiant, stupid charge of Drogon. Don’t do that again, Jaime.
Next: Game of Thrones Screencap Breakdown: “Beyond the Wall” Trailer
How do you think we did? Who do you think is gonna bite it? Let us know, and we’ll be back to review our picks next Saturday.
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