A history of the women of Game of Thrones: who survives Season 6?

According to HBO, the women on Game of Thrones “power this season.” Having now seen most (but not all) of their storylines reestablished in the Season 6 premiere episode, ‘The Red Woman,” let’s reacquaint ourselves with the female characters who have been a big part of the show so far.

As Season 6 opens, we find every one of our characters and their families/allies reeling from one setback or another. In these circumstances, opportunities abound for anyone willing to take risks. Remember Littlefinger’s advice from Season 3.

"Varys: “But what do we have left, once we abandon the lie? Chaos? A gaping pit waiting to swallow us all?”Litlefinger: “Chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder.”"

Survival is always a big question on Game of Thrones, so I offer odds on how likely I think it is that each (still breathing) female character will make it through to Season 7. Let’s look at the warriors first.

HAVE SWORD WILL TRAVEL

BRIENNE OF TARTH: The heroic Brienne has suffered mightily in her quests. Renly Baratheon died right under her nose, and Lady Catelyn in her absence. Since then, she’s brawled her way through various companies of soldiers, Bolton captors, and the the Hound. She avenged Renly by killing Stannis, and now has a chance to make good on her oath to Catelyn by swearing a new oath of fealty to her daughter, Sansa.

It’s wonderful to see Brienne winning, but by raising her high, showrunners David Benioff and Dan Weiss could be setting her up for a fall. I’d hate that. Live, Brienne, dammit, live. Sansa needs you. (Season 6 odds of survival: 85%)

MEERA REED: Sister to the deceased Jojen and protector of Bran Stark, the dark-haired Meera was last seen scrambling into the cave under the great weirwood tree with Bran, Hodor, and Summer the direwolf. The girl has moxie, and she’ll honor Jojen’s sacrifice by guarding Bran’s back to the very end. Perhaps she’ll end up in a romantic relationship with Bran. Why not? They both deserve something good.

On the flip side, she seems like an awfully easy character to kill off with minimum disruption, though that predictability might be her ticket to survival in behind-the-scenes story meetings. A smooch with Bran could save her, plus open the door for more character development. I’m all for that. (Season 6 odds of survival: 65%)

OSHA THE WILDLING: Osha, the loyal protector of Bran and Rickon Stark, was last seen escorting Rickon and Shaggydog towards the relative safety of the House Umber stronghold, in the North. Considering the show’s female wildling mortality rate, we can only hope that our spearwife Osha doesn’t suffer the same fate as the other wildling ladies on this list. May the old gods be merciful. (Season 6 odds of survival: 50%)

ELLARIA SAND: Vengeful and conniving, Ellaria the bastard and her Sand Snakes single-handedly eliminated the leadership of Dorne in one fell swoop in the premiere episode. They should beware, however, because power voids in this world rarely work out the way the bloody-handed assassins intend.

The scenes in Dorne scenes have left Ellaria Sand feeling largely one-dimensional, and because of that, we don’t empathize with her. Her revenge tactics have seemed so hamfisted, and it seems like a real mastermind rising in Dorne would have no trouble sending her to an early grave. (Season 6 odds of survival: 25%)

ARYA STARK: Wow, it feels like a lifetime has passed since we first met this character as a little girl. Arya is a major player, but I put her lower on this ‘Have Sword Will Travel’ list because she currently straddles the sword-swingers and…whatever the Faceless Men are—she’s becoming a shadowy assassin who destroys only those the Many-Faced God selects. To become No One, as the Faceless Men want, she’ll have to put aside her sense of self, and thus her own private war. It’s not clear if Arya, who still has Needle hidden near the waterfront, is capable of entirely leaving her old self behind. If she can’t, the Many-Faced God may not take it well.

I think she survives Season 6, but I have no idea where her journey is going to take her. (Season 6 odds of survival: 95%)

YARA GREYJOY: Yara is a character who’s steadily grown on me. She’s won the hearts and minds of the rough ironborn sailors because she is competent and tough, and she wins viewer’s hearts because she has been a stalwart ally to her unfortunate brother, Theon. Whatever force she controls is a force to be reckoned with.

The problem is that the Greyjoys are not the strongest outfit in Westeros, and if her father, Lord Balon, plays his cards badly, it could also end badly for his daughter. (Season 6 odds of survival: 49%)

ROYALS, MOTHERS AND ENCHANTRESSES

Political power is pretty much everything in Game of Thrones. These ladies are either seasoned pros or newcomers to the great game.

CERSEI LANNISTER: Helplessly married off to a king as a young woman, Cersei is an experienced power player who sometimes gets played herself, a fiercely loving mother, and a vindictive enemy. She celebrated the death of her husband Robert and suffered the deaths of two of her beloved children. She was humiliated by the Faith Militant, and has turned her fury towards all those who have wronged her.

With Jaime home, the boy king Tommen may still stand a chance. Cersei is nothing if not a survivor, and with the FrankenMountain as her bodyguard, I’d say she has a 90% chance of making it through Season 6. (I’m ignoring my spidey sense, which is faintly tingling…could we see Cersei and Jaime overwhelmed and the Lannisters all but wiped out?)

DAENERYS TARGARYEN: Good old Dany has already proven she can weather adversity, and we can already feel the wheels of fate turning once again in her favor in “The Red Woman.” She’s obviously going to break out of that widowed khaleesi retirement home in a big way, and we’ve seen Drogon’s shadow over the horde in the trailers.

Dany will likely pick up another Dothraki army, but of much greater concern, now that her entire fleet is a smoking mess, is how and when she is ever going to bring that army across the Narrow Sea and get the final act started. (Season 6 odds of survival: 99%)

LADY OLENNA TYRELL: One of the most capable behind-the-scenes players in Westeros, Lady Olenna is an old pro at handling the likes of Cersei Lannister and Littlefinger. She also positioned Margaery so she could become queen, and thus enhance the status of the Tyrell family. What’s more, she made sure that Margaery was queen to the right king by helping to kill off her first husband, Joffrey.

However, the Tyrells may be in for a rough season, simply because they’re getting pulled deeper and deeper into intrigue, and nobody escapes that unscathed. (Season 6 odds of survival: 70%)

MELISANDRE: As the new season opens, the ancient crone has revealed her true self. Her machinations have failed her thus far, and she appears forlorn. If she is going to have a hand in Jon Snow’s resurrection, it’s murky what she might do and how long she might last afterwards. I can totally see Melisandre, in an act self-redemption, sacrificing herself to help raise Jon if she truly believes he is needed. There also seems to be a new Red Priestess waiting in the wings in Meereen. (Season 6 odds of survival: 55%)

SANSA STARK: battered and bruised, Sansa is finally maneuvering herself into a position where she can control the world around her. She has escaped the Boltons, and good fortune has given her a brave protecter in Brienne of Tarth. Podrick and Theon may provide good counsel as well.

I suspect they’ll head for Riverrun, the House Tully stronghold, and Sansa will begin to wield more influence. I also fully expect Sansa to make it through the season: the next stage of her journey is just beginning. (Season 6 odds of survival: 99%)

MARGAERY TYRELL: Margaery’s obsession with becoming queen—and her skill at making it happen—has carried her from the beds of Renly Baratheon to Joffrey Lannister to Tommen Lannister. However, her attempt to cover up for her brother Loras’ homosexuality got her in trouble with the Faith Militant, and she now rots in a dank cell under the Sept of Baelor. Neither Margaery nor Loras have a great shot at getting through this season intact. (Season 6 odds of survival: 40%)

SMALL PLAYERS WITH POTENTIAL

Never count out the players on the sidelines.

MISSANDEI: Former interpreter/slave turned Dany’s closest confidant, Missandei may find opportunity to shine alongside Tyrion and Varys as they struggle to control Meereen in Dany’s absence. The girl knows this part of the world, and it doesn’t hurt to have the commander of the Unsullied deeply in love with you. (Season 6 odds of survival: 80%)

GILLY: Craster’s daughter is uneducated but wise, and she wants nothing more than to to care for her child and Samwell Tarly. She is capable but highly vulnerable. Sam is trying to take Gilly and her baby away from the danger in the North, but in Westeros, there is danger everywhere. (Season 6 odds of survival: 85%)

TYENE SAND OF THE SAND SNAKES: I singled out Tyene, third of the eight bastard daughters fathered by Prince Oberyn Martell, because her character has managed to stand out from her sisters (her playful prison cell scene with Bronn was one of the few decent scenes featuring the Sand Snakes last year).

Masterful with daggers and seduction, Tyene might prove an interesting character if she could somehow break free of the Dornish scenario. Maybe she could run away and team up with Bronn and travel the world on great adventures. I’d be ready to watch that duo in action.

But that probably isn’t going to happen. If the producers mercy kill the Dorne story line (assuming they haven’t already), I suspect Tyene won’t escape. (Season 6 odds of survival: 35%)

SEPTA UNELLA: I don’t see potential here. Somebody just kill her, please. I’m looking at you, Jaime. (Season 6 odds of survival: 1%)

THEY DIED BEFORE THEIR TIME

Game of Thrones is famous for stacking up bodies, both male and female, and over five seasons we’ve lost some good ones, along with some some questionable ones:

LADY CATELYN STARK (nee Tully): The determined and stately Stark matriarch died alongside her son and daughter-in-law at the Red Wedding. Her love for her family (with the exception of Jon Snow) and her wise counsel to her husband and sons made her an important cog in the Stark family machine. She might make for one helluva angry ghost, as well…

YGRITTE THE WILDLING: as mentioned before, the hard-fighting wildling girls don’t fare well in Westeros. But Ygritte gave us one of the most heartwrenching deaths on Game of Thrones. Jon Snow, her former lover, spared her once, but she spared him twice. When she loved Jon, she gave it her all, and expected the same thing from him. At the end, when she lowered her bow and arrow at Castle Black, she knew that Jon could never give her all of himself, no matter how much he wanted to. As she died in his arms, it was a tragedy for both of them.

KARSI THE WILDLING: we only got to see Karsi in one episode (“Hardhome”) but she made an impression. A wildling chieftan, mother, and two-handed fighter, we liked her for her willingness to screw her dead ancestors and follow Tormund into an alliance with Jon Snow. Her battle against the wights was memorable, but in the end she died horribly, torn to pieces by wight children she could not raise her hand against. I sure could have used a lot more Karsi. It’ll be awful if we see her again with her ice-blue eyes as a member of the White Walker army.

MYRCELLA LANNISTER: The innocents have a hard time of it on this show. Myrcella was all beauty and softness and hope, and of course she was snuffed out.

SHIREEN BARATHEON: Shireen was another intelligent and loving innocent killed in a terrible way, and by her own father. Melisandre proved her own soullessness by suggesting and carrying out Shireen’s ritual murder.

TALISA STARK (nee Maegyr): Volantean battlefield healer and counselor/wife to Robb, she had the potential to one day be a fine queen of the North, or even all of Westeros. She had a better head for the intricacies of politics that the everything-is-black-and-white Stark males (she raised her voice alongside others for Robb not to behead Rickard Karstark back in Season 3). Had Robb heeded Talisa’s advice, he might have been able to keep his northern army intact.

LYSA ARRYN (nee Tully): wife to Jon Arryn and sister to Catelyn, Lysa wielded some power as the Lady Regent of the Vale, but she was mentally unstable. She would do anything to prove her wildly misguided love to Littlefinger, who destroyed her after using her to help murder her husband and framing the Lannisters for the deed.

SHAE: Tyrion’s goodhearted concubine wanted to make him run away with her, but when he spurned her, Shae made the fateful decision to share Tywinn Lannister’s bed. Tyrion killed her in an ugly, brutal scene.

ROS: Moving up in the world, from the brothels of Winterfell to a high position in Littlefinger’s house of pleasures in King’s Landing, looked like a good move for Ros, until she turned spy for Varys and Littlefinger fed her to Joffrey.

MIRRI MAZ DUUR: The Lhazareen godswife was victimized by Khal Drogo’s khalasar before Daenerys rescued her from further abuse. The exact nature of Mirri’s blood magic, which resulted in turning Dany’s son Rhaego into a stillborn monster, is unknown, but Daenerys made sure she paid for it by burning her with Drogo’s funeral pyre.

So there it is.

The only thing certain about Season 6 is that the ladies are going to be in the thick of it once again. They’re likely to obtain and wield more power than ever before, and as a result, suffer more casualties than ever before. Do you agree with my odds on your favorites? Did I forget somebody?