Expert ASOIAF theorist BryndenBFish talks his favorite theories, Winds of Winter release date

In a wide-ranging interview with The Verge, prolific A Song of Ice and Fire theorist BryndenBFish, who can be found on the Song of Ice and Fire subreddit or minding his Wars and Politics of Ice and Fire blog, touched on a variety of topics. Immersed in the series as he is, Brynden has some pretty interesting ideas about where the series is going, and where it might diverge from the books. Perhaps most strikingly, he believes that, in the books, Stannis might actually win the battle of Winterfell, despite being annihilated in just a few short moments in “Mother’s Mercy.”

"If you’re going to look at how the story progressed from season five to season six, I think what you’re actually seeing is Jon Snow taking a lot of Stannis’ role from the books. In A Dance With Dragons, Stannis is recruiting different Northern houses and lords into his service and he’s marching on Winterfell and he doesn’t have much hope of winning the battle of Winterfell but he has a plan in mind. And that’s all Jon in season six."

Recently, Game of Thrones has made a habit of merging plotlines from the novels to save time. For example, think of Sansa going to Winterfell and marrying Ramsay Bolton. In the books, that burden falls to Jeyne Poole, who doesn’t appear on the show outside of the pilot. In this context, it’s easy to imagine the producers merging Stannis’ and Jon’s plot from the books.

So how does Brynden come up with such theories?

"I just have kind of a long-standing series of resources that myself and others have put together, compiling things that Martin has said about the series and different things he wrote about on his blog. Sometimes I’ll ask around for help and bounce ideas off of people if I have an idea that I’m not entirely sure about. That’s the cool thing about these online communities like Reddit, is that you have so many people who want to participate and want to have some kind of stake or ownership in analyzing a fantasy book series."

But in the end, no theory is certain until George R.R. Martin confirms it, something BryndenBFish doesn’t think he’s likely to do outside of his books.

"I think Jon Snow’s mother being Lyanna Stark and his father being Rhaegar Targaryen will most likely be explicitly confirmed in the books as it has already been on the show, but there’s going to be a fair number of things that George is never going to come out and say and it won’t be in the books and we won’t get a hint of it on the show either."

One of the theories floated around recently is the “Mad Queen” theory. It suggests that Daenerys might give in to her hereditary Targaryen madness and burn Westeros to the ground, rather than save it from the White Walkers. (We saw some flashes of her murderous tendencies when she murdered the khals in Season 6. That’s not a theory I personally subscribe to, and neither does BryndenBFish.

"When she’s out in the wilderness in the Dothraki Sea, she makes the decision to abide by the Targaryen words “fire and blood” and she says “dragons plant no trees,” which is a really ominous turn for her. She’s saying I’m not here to plant roots and settle down and be peaceful, my words are “fire and blood” and I will go to Westeros. But it would be almost cliche if Daenerys went from being a good person to being an out-and-out villain. I don’t think that’s the way that George has written characters and I don’t think it’s the way that he’s going to write Daenerys."

Finally, BryndenBFish weighed in on that all-important question: when might we finally see The Winds of Winter?

"I looked at it by analyzing George’s writing speed for Dance With Dragons, and I still tend to see early 2017 as a potential date for when the book might come out. The greater issue for me is not necessarily when the book is going to come out, but whether the book is going to be good. It’s not talked about as much now, but five years ago when a Dance With Dragons came out, George was mostly satisfied but he had intended for the Battle of Winterfell and the Battle of Fire to end the book and that’s where those two storylines would naturally conclude. He had to push those events back into The Winds of Winter, which led to a lot of fan disappointment."

I tend to agree with BryndenBFish regarding the release date. Months ago, Martin expressed his disappointment that he couldn’t finish Winds before the start of Game of Thrones Season 6. At one point, he thought it was a deadline he could hit. That implies Martin is at least close enough to being finished for an early 2017 release date. For now, though, we await the next installment of the series, be it on the screen or the page.