Speculation: What role will the Iron Bank play in Game of Thrones seasons 7 and 8?

Actor Mark Gatiss recently revealed that he’s returning to the role of Tycho Nestoris for Game of Thrones seasons 7 and 8. Tycho, you’ll recall, is a representative of the Iron Bank, a powerful financial institution located in Braavos. He’s appeared twice: he and his fellow bankers lent Stannis money to buy sellswords in season 4’s “The Laws of Gods and Men” and stood firm in the face of Mace Tyrell’s charm offensive in season 5’s “The Dance of Dragons.”

So he’s appeared in two episodes so far. However, it sounds like we’ll be seeing much more of Tycho going forward. “I’ve done four episodes now and there’s two more they think,” Gatiss told members of the press at the BFI & Radio Times Festival. Remember: filming on season 7 is over, so if he’s done four episodes total, that means he’s in two episodes of season 7. And the “two more” would have to happen in season 8. And because seasons 7 and 8 are shorter than normal (seven and six episodes respectively), those appearances will count for more.

If Tycho is getting more screen time, we can assume that he, and by extension the Iron Bank, will have a bigger role going forward. But what kind? Let’s investigate.

WARNING: SPOILERS FOLLOW

Let’s start with what we know: according to SPOILERS, Tycho Nestoris will visit King’s Landing in Game of Thrones season 7. His purpose: to tell Cersei that the Crown’s debt to the Iron Bank is due. The show has been setting up something like this for a while. Back when Littlefinger was the Master of Coin in King’s Landing, he had a reputation for making gold appear out of nowhere. But when Tyrion took over the position in season 3, he found out that Littlefinger wasn’t summoning money from out of thin air; he was borrowing it, mostly from the Iron Bank.

Tyrion articulates the problem with this method: “If we fail to repay these loans, the bank will fund our enemies. One way or another, they always get their gold.”

This is terrible news for Cersei, because as Tywin told her in season 4’s “First of His Name,” the Lannisters are short on money, despite appearances. “Our last working [gold] mine ran dry three years ago,” he said. To fix this problem, Tywin planned to lean in to Lannister-Tyrell alliance, since the Tyrells actually have money to spend. But that’s not an option for Cersei, since she exploded Loras, Margaery, and Mace Tyrell and alienated Olenna.

In short, there’s no way Cersei will be able to pay the Iron Bank back when Tycho Nestoris comes calling. So what does he do then?

Option 1: Fund Daenerys

The most obvious course of action is to skip on over to Dragonstone, where Daenerys has set up her new home base, and offer her money on the condition that she assumes the Lannisters’ (and Robert Baratheon’s) debt upon taking the throne. Daenerys may be happy to have the gold, too. She’s got thousands of soldiers to feed, arm, and clothe, plus a fancy new island fortress to maintain. Wars are expensive, and she’s planning a big one.

But there are also reasons for the Iron Bank to steer clear of Daenerys. For one thing, she has a history of…aggressive negotiating. The Iron Bank may not want to work with someone who once exchanged a dragon for a slave army and then had the slave army kill her trading partners before taking the dragon back anyway.

The dragons themselves may also be a sticking point. Braavos was founded by slaves fleeing Daenerys’ ancestors, powerful families who used dragons to maintain their positions. As a Braavosi, Tycho Nestoris may have an inherent mistrust of anyone who uses the beasts.

We get a little taste of this in A Dance with Dragons when Tycho meets Jon Snow and tells him rumors of dragons in the East. Jon makes a little joke about things “warming up,” but Tycho is not amused.

"My lord jests. You will forgive me if I do not laugh. We Braavosi are descended from those who fled Valyria and the wroth of its dragonlords. We do not jape of dragons."

But if not Daenerys or Cersei, who does the Iron Bank fund?

Option 2: Fund Jon Snow

In the novels, Tycho Nestoris visits the North looking for Stannis, intending to lend him money in the hope that he’ll take the Iron Throne and pay back the Lannisters’ debt. He meets Jon, then the Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch, on the way, and Jon jumps at the opportunity to get a loan so he can buy supplies for the Night’s Watch.

The show roughly adapted the bit where the Iron Bank gives Stannis a loan. (But on the show, Stannis goes to the Iron Bank, not the other way around.) It seems to have cut any interaction between Jon and the Iron Bank, but might that change in season 7 or 8?

It’s possible, but Jon may not be an attractive candidate, either. As King in the North, he doesn’t have access to the kind of revenue streams whomever sits on the Iron Throne does. And unlike Daenerys, Jon has no intention of taking the Iron Throne — he’s focused on the far less predictable war against killer ice zombies north of the Wall. And in any case, the Starks were never an especially rich family.

Option 3: Collapse and Panic

Over the past decade and change, the Iron Bank lent a lot of money to first Robert Baratheon and then the Lannisters. Cersei can’t pay it back. It lent a lot of money to Stannis Baratheon, and obviously he can’t pay it back. We don’t know exactly how deep their pockets are, but it’s possible that the Bank is in danger of collapse if it doesn’t get paid on these loans. If they were a normal bank, they would have taken something for security — an expensive piece of property, for example. But just watch what Cersei does if they try to repossess the Red Keep. The Iron Bank could be in trouble.

Or they could be the last one standing. That was Gatiss’ idea when he spoke to the showrunners, anyway. “I made a pitch to be the last one alive because if anyone survives, it’s the banker, isn’t it?” he said. “They smiled at me and then plotted my doom.”

Game of Thrones season 7 premieres July 16.