Scientific climate model tries to explain Westeros’ long seasons

Winter is coming. Everyone in Westeros knows that. But fewer know when it will arrive. Seasons in George R.R. Martin’s world change erratically, and last for years at a time. No one knows why this is, although plenty of have offered explanations both scientific and magical. Climate scientists at the University of Bristol have gotten a little more serious about it and tried to simulate the weather patterns of Westeros by tweaking a real-world climate model. What did they find out?

First of all, the scientist published their findings in a mock paper written by “Samwell Tarly” in a fake journal called Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of King’s Landing. They keep in character through the paper, too, saying that Sam found his research material in the Citadel library. Scientists: they like a gag.

Anyway, here’re some of the paper’s findings:

• The paper’s basic thesis is that the seasons are caused by a wobble in the planet’s axis, which could cause one hemisphere of the planet to be pointed toward the sun (summer) or away from the sun (winter) for long periods of time as it revolves around the sun. This explanation makes more sense than the wonky seasons being caused by, say, volcanic activity, since characters in the Song of Ice and Fire novels mention days being shorter in the winter.
• The first attempt to run this theory in the model basically destroyed the world different hemispheres of the planet heated and cooled to vastly different degrees, but adjusting the tilt of the planet from 23.5 degrees to 10 degrees made it more manageable.
• During the summers in Westeros, the only frozen spot is a place far north of the Wall, probably a hangout spot for White Walkers. The rest of Westeros is pretty balmy, with places like King’s Landing experiencing temperatures roughly equivalent to those in Houston, Texas in the summertime. In winter, the North pretty much freezes over entirely, with temperatures at the Wall about equal to wintertime temperatures in Lapland, Finland.

• Not knowing everything, the author does have to make some assumptions, particularly about how the seasons change from winter to summer and back again. Sam posits that it might be “a passing comet or just the magic of the Seven.” That’s pretty loose, but it is his first paper as a maester-in-training.
• The paper also assesses the world’s sensitivity to climate change, which could come as a result of increased greenhouse gas emissions from dragons, excess use of wildfire, and deforestation to build ships; Euron just HAD to have 1000 for his fleet.

The paper can also be read in High Valyrian and Dothraki. You’re welcome.

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h/t Ars Technica