Fan Theory Corner: The Northern Fool Fallacy and Jon Snow’s Motivations in season 7

Jon plays the game, but holds his cards close to the chest

Kit Harington talked about Jon Snow’s character development in season 7 to Smile Magazine (emphasis mine):

"Jon is probably one of the more stable characters all the way through. You return to him each year and he doesn’t change a great deal. I have always quite liked that about him. But this year, he does change. He becomes a politician. Having gone to the brink and seen things that other people haven’t seen, he starts manipulating people — in a very Jon Snow way, in a very kind way. You see the greatest change in him. It’s a weird thing playing a character like that. You live with him for all these years, and as he changes, you change. He is not the kind of mopey teenager type anymore. He is a bit more of a man on a mission. So this is a good year to look out for him."

This very much jives with Maester Aemon’s words to Jon in the fifth episode of season 5: “Kill the boy, Jon Snow. Winter is almost upon us. Kill the boy, and let the man be born.”*

But the question is: Who is Jon manipulating, and why? With whom does he have to play the part of politician?

Jon Snow is fighting the White Walkers, but there’s no playing politician with them. Jon also has to deal with Cersei Lannister, but he doesn’t try and manipulate her during the summit at the Dragonpit. Rather, he’s completely honest about pledging himself to Daenerys when manipulating and lying might have served him better, as Tyrion points out. The only other candidate is Daenerys herself.

Jon is playing the political game. He is not, as Sansa warned against, acting rashly as Ned and Robb did; he is more aware of the dangers of his position, and he responds accordingly.

In season 1, Ned laid all his cards on the table for Cersei, telling her that he knew of her children’s true parentage and planned to reveal all to Robert. That might have been the honorable choice, but it led directly to the downfall of his family. In season 7, Jon gives nothing away to Daenerys — instead, he molds himself to her demands and preferences so that he might earn his freedom. Jon doesn’t put his family’s safety on the line.

Jon does not allow Daenerys to get to know him intimately, ensuring she has nothing to use against him should their alliance sour. This could account for Jon’s muted reaction when he learns that Bran and Arya are alive and at Winterfell. That’s also why Jon never willingly tells Daenerys about his murder at the hands of the Night’s Watch, even stopping Davos when he’s about to say too much in “The Queen’s Justice.” The less Daenerys knows, the better. Jon does, however, freely discusses the matter of his resurrection with Beric Dondarrion (albeit only after Tormund told Beric of it offscreen), so it’s not as though he’s completely opposed to such conversation.

In fact, even as late as the fifth episode of the season — “Eastwatch” — Jon downplays any connection he has to the Dragon Queen (emphasis mine):

"I came here, knowing you could have your men behead me or your dragons burn me alive. I put my trust in you, a stranger, because I knew it was the best chance for my people, for all our people. Now I’m asking you to trust in a stranger, because it’s our best chance."

Jon still considers he and Daenerys to be strangers. With only two episodes of the season left to go, there’s still an emotional disconnect on Jon’s end. That doesn’t exactly spell “epic romance.”**

Kit Harington does not play Jon Snow like a man in love, but a man willing to do what he must to schieve his goals. He is constantly placating Daenerys, telling her what she wants to hear or at least sugarcoating his observations to avoid any backlash. See especially: Jon’s initial reaction to Daenerys when she comments on how “beautiful” her dragons are in “Eastwatch.”

"Daenerys: “They’re beautiful, aren’t they?” Jon: “Not the word I was thinking of, but…” [off Daenerys’ look] “…but yes, they are. Gorgeous beasts.”"

Jon swaps out his light incredulity for acquiescence once he realizes that Daenerys does not take kindly to criticism of her “children.” This is also apparent when Jon advises her against burning the Red Keep in response to Cersei’s victory at Highgarden in “The Spoils of War.” And while Daenerys takes his advice, she goes on to destroy the food Jaime and his army had brought back from the Reach, food meant for the common people in King’s Landing she claims to represent. Daenerys doesn’t burn the people in their homes, but she still dooms them to starvation in the midst of war.

At the Dragonpit, Jon does the same thing: Daenerys talks about how the Targaryens are nothing without their dragons, and Jon assures her that she’s still something special. Because Jon Snow knows two things: One, dragonglass/fire kills wights and White Walkers; and two, through his interactions with Daenerys, as well as his conversation with Missandei on Dragonstone, Daenerys is taken with her own “liberating queen” persona. He needs Daenerys to trust him, because the Northerners are likely to reject her.

Considering that, it’s strange that almost no one has suggested the possibility of a marriage alliance between Jon and Dany. That could promote goodwill, reconcile the bad blood between Houses Targaryen and Stark, and ensure that the White Walkers would face a united front when the time comes. It’s the kind of solution that Tyrion, Varys or Davos might propose, but the only person to bring it up is Littlefinger, of all people, when he’s talking to Sansa in the season 7 finale.

Why isn’t this angle given more consideration? Put simply, it’s because the purported “romance” between these two isn’t what it might seem at first blush.