Lena Headey submits her performance in “The Dragon and the Wolf” for Emmy consideration—Can she win?

Last week, the Television Academy revealed the nominations for the 70 Annual Emmy Awards. Thanks to the late premiere date for season 7, Game of Thrones wasn’t eligible for the 69th ceremony, but it’s back with a vengeance this year, earning more nominations than any other show with 22.

Among the nominees is Lena Headey, who’s in contention for the Best Supporting Actress in a Drama award, thanks to her performance as Cersei Lannister. This is actually the fourth time she’s been in this category; she was nominated after season 4 for “The Lion and the Rose”; after season 5 for “Mother’s Mercy”; and after season 6 for “The Winds of Winter.” What episode has she submitted for season 7? GoldDerby reveals that it’s “The Dragon and the Wolf,” the season 7 finale.

“The Dragon and the Wolf” is definitely a terrific showcase for Headey’s talents. By my count, she knocks it out of the park in at least three different scenes: when she holds court in the Dragonpit, trying her hardest not to be impressed when Daenerys rides in on a dragon and losing her composure when the wight lunges at her; during her intimate chat with Tyrion; and during her breakup with Jaime. She brings drama, she brings pathos and she brings dark comedy (“We’ve been here for some time“). The only other scene this season that lets her cut loose like this is the one with Ellaria Sand in the Red Keep dungeon, but the finale has quality and quantity.

But will she win?

The Best Supporting Actress field is pretty crowded these days. Here’s who Headey’s up against:

• The Crown, Vanessa Kirby as Princess Margaret
• Game Of Thrones, Lena Headey as Cersei Lannister
• The Handmaid’s Tale, Alexis Bledel as Ofglen
• The Handmaid’s Tale, Ann Dowd as Aunt Lydia
• The Handmaid’s Tale, Yvonne Strahovski as Serena Joy
• Stranger Things, Millie Bobby Brown as Eleven
• Westworld, Thandie Newton as Maeve

For reference, Ann Down of The Handmaid’s Tale won this award last year, when Game of Thrones sat the ceremony out. Clearly, the Emmys voters are fans of The Handmaid’s Tale, and I could see someone from that show taking home the gold again. Then again, the field is a little weaker than it has been in the past. The Handmaid’s Tale is still a critical darling, but now that it’s in its second season, the novelty factor is gone. Millie Bobby Brown is a fun choice for a nomination, but the Academy has rarely given the award to actors that young. Vanessa Kirby is stately as Princess Margaret on The Crown, but she doesn’t have the weight of, say, Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey, to whom Headey lost this award in 2016. And while Thandie Newton did terrific work on this season of Westworld, her plotline was a bit muddled.

Looking at the nominees closely, I think this may be Headey’s best chance yet to snag a statue; you can only be nominated so many times before the Emmy voters start to look silly when you don’t win. On the other hand, if we’re going on track record, it’ll go to someone else. But even if that happens, Headey seems all but guaranteed to win the award for season 8; I don’t see the voters letting Game of Thrones end without giving Headey something, not after all these nominations.

So I’m cautiously optimistic. The 70th Annual Emmys Awards air on NBC on September 17.

Next: Game of Thrones armorer Natalia Lee talks being a woman in a male-dominated business

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