Nikolaj Coster-Waldau submits his performance in “The Spoils of War” for Emmy consideration—Can he win?

The Emmy nominations are out, and Game of Thrones has scored 22, more than any other show in contention. Among the most exciting is Nikolaj Coster-Waldau’s nom for Best Supporting Actor in a Drama. Coster-Waldau has been knocking it out of the park as Jaime Lannister for years, but has never been nominated for an Emmy. Can he win the race his first time on the track?

Awards site GoldDerby reports that Coster-Waldau submitted his performance in “The Spoils of War” for consideration. That was a smart move. To me, “Spoils” was easily the best episode of the season, and Coster-Waldau carries it. The whole back third of the hour is taken up by Daenerys’ attack on the combined Lannister-Tarly army, and Jaime is our eyes and ears on the ground. We’re swept up in his desperation as he rallies his men, are aghast along with him when Daenerys — who flies into battle atop Drogon — burns his army to a crisp, and on the edge of our seats when he picks up a spear and tries to charge down the Dragon Queen.

In the full arc of Game of Thrones, Daenerys is arguably a more sympathetic character than Jaime, and the episode could have taken the easy route and showed the battle from her perspective. By sticking with Jaime, “Spoils” becomes something much knottier and more interesting. It demands a lot of Coster-Waldau and he steps up; it’s probably the best showcase for his talents in the history of the show, which explains why he’s only been nominated now after all these years.

And all of that’s great. But can he win? Here’s what the field looks like:

Outstanding Supporting Actor In A Drama Series

• The Crown, Matt Smith as Prince Philip, Duke of Edinburgh
• Game Of Thrones, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau as Jaime Lannister
• Game Of Thrones, Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister
• The Handmaid’s Tale, Joseph Fiennes as Commander Waterford
• Homeland, Mandy Patinkin as Saul Berenson
• Stranger Things, David Harbour as Jim Hopper

That’s some tough competition. Like Coster-Waldau, Matt Smith and Joseph Fiennes are Emmy newcomers, and like Coster-Waldau, they’re nominated for shows that have been on the air for at least one season, indicating that Emmy voters were more impressed by their work this year than in the past. Also, their profiles are a little higher than Coster-Waldau’s, and name recognition matters, for better or worse. I could see either of them taking it.

On the other hand, Coster-Waldau got a nomination despite not having as high a profile as those guys, so voters must have really liked what they saw of him in Game of Thrones season 7. David Harbour and Mandy Patinkin have both been nominated in this category before, and Patinkin even won an Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series back in 1995 for his work on Chicago Hope. But if they haven’t won Emmys for Stranger Things and Homeland yet, I doubt the most recent seasons of those shows will put them over the top.

Then there’s Coster-Waldau’s castmate Peter Dinklage (Tyrion Lannister). To this day, Dinklage is the only Game of Thrones cast member to win an Emmy for acting — he’s won in this category twice before. Dinklage is an excellent actor, but I feel like Emmy voters are almost in a rut with him; they want to nominate someone from Game of Thrones and he’s their default go-to guy. Dinklage was no slouch in season 7, but I think Coster-Waldau gave the more memorable performance.

I hope Emmy voters feel the same way, because I feel Coster-Waldau deserves this award, and it would be a treat to see him win on his first time out. Then, if Lena Headey (Cersei) wins this year or next year, all three Lannister siblings will have Emmys and the world will be as it should be.

You can watch the 70th annual Emmy Awards on NBC on September 17.

Next: When will Game of Thrones season 8 debut? We investigate

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