The Mandalorian should win Outstanding Drama Series at the Emmys…but it probably won’t

The Mandalorian is already racking up technical Emmys, but even against some stiff competition, I think it deserves the top Primetime prize. Here’s why:

We’re over halfway through the Creative Arts Emmys, which are being given out every weeknight this week. These awards honor the technical side of television production before the Primetime Emmys this Sunday give out awards for stuff like writing and acting and directing, and so far, Disney’s The Mandalorian is in the lead. It’s already won Outstanding Visual Effects, Outstanding Cinematography For A Single-Camera Series (Half-Hour), Outstanding Sound Mixing For a Comedy or Drama Series (Half-Hour) and Animation, Outstanding Sound Editing for a Comedy or Drama Series (Half-Hour) and Animation, and Outstanding Production Design for a Narrative Program (Half-Hour). The Star Wars spinoff about an interstellar bounty hunter determined to protect an adorable space baby has turned into an awards horse for Disney+ right out of the gate, and there are still nights to go.

And there’s little question that The Mandalorian deserves these awards. The first season was immaculately put together, well-paced, and used pioneering technology. Still, there was a time when it probably wouldn’t have been taken seriously enough to sweep like this. Thanks to Game of Thrones, which was long an Emmy darling, sci-fi and fantasy shows like The Mandalorian are getting more serious consideration at awards shows than ever before, to the point where Mando isn’t just dominating the technical categories but has a chance to take home the top prize of the night on Sunday: Outstanding Drama Series.

• Better Call Saul (AMC)
• The Crown (Netflix)
• The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu)
• Killing Eve (BBC America)
• The Mandalorian (Disney+)
• Ozark (Netflix)
• Stranger Things (Netflix)
• Succession (HBO)

As you can see, The Mandalorian is only one of several sci-fi/fantasy shows up for the award, something at one time would have been unthinkable. And personally, I want it to win, because it was probably the most fun I had watching TV last year, and because I think it’s the show doing the most to push genre series into new territory now that Game of Thrones is no longer around.

There are a lot of sci-fi and fantasy shows out there trying to equal Game of Thrones for scope and weight, and to lap up the critical acclaim that came with it. On HBO, both Westworld and His Dark Materials are taking stabs at it, but both feel bloated, like they’re trying too hard to be seen as important. On Netflix, The Witcher strives for seriousness, too, but there’s also a strain of camp that sometimes makes it feel like a cheap fantasy serial from the ’90s made with a Game of Thrones-sized budget. Clearly, Netflix has had more success with Stranger Things, which is a more singular vision that blends fantasy-horror with ’80s period detail.

The Mandalorian has managed to thread the needle through these extremes. It has its serious moments, but doesn’t feel the need to oversell them. While more and more dramas seem determined to have episodes that last an hour or more, Mandalorian showrunners Jon Favreau and Dave Filoni have no problem keeping the adventures of Mando and Baby Yoda as short as a half-hour, if that’s all the time needed to tell that week’s story. And when they need more time, they take more time. Looking at all the tentpole TV these days, sometimes I wonder if the creators just assume bigger is better and endeavor to fill as much time as possible. They’d be better taking cues from Mando instead.

And The Mandalorian knows how to make those minutes count. The show is as sci-fi/fantasy as it gets, but the reason it hooked people is because the relationship between Mando and Baby Yoda feels genuine and vital; they care about it, and want to see it grow. And while other shows feel the need to explain their mythologies at length, Mando has elegantly introduced elements of the title character’s backstory and culture without giving everything away, letting it breath and fascinate.

It knows how to have fun, too. Casting cult film director Werner Herzog as a grizzled Imperial remnant sounds like a silly stunt, but he’s unforgettable in his small role. The whole first season was a parade of people you wouldn’t think would work in their roles, from Carl Weathers to Gina Carano to Amy Sedaris to Nick Nolte, but each fit snugly into this world, and none outstayed their welcome.

Admittedly, The Mandalorian is more lightweight than Thrones, but its willingness to get goofy sometimes (while never losing sight of the sincere story it’s telling) is one of the ways it sets itself apart from the rest of its post-Thrones competition. It takes risks and goes its own way, and it’s working. If any series could take up Game of Thrones’ reputation as the fantasy show that wins the top Emmy year after year, I think it should be this one.

That said, I’d bet against it come Sunday. It’s been a long since anything but Game of Thrones has won the Outstanding Drama Series award — the only time it didn’t in the last several years was when it took the year off, in 2017. The Handmaid’s Tale took it that year, and it could again, if the Emmy voters want to go with what they know.

The other obviously fantasy candidate is Stranger Things, but I don’t think its weighty enough for the title. The same goes for Killing Eve. If the voters wanted to play it safe, they could award Netflix’s historical drama The Crown, but that would be a boring choice.

If the Emmys want to give the award to the best-written show, it’d be hard to overlook Better Call Saul, although they have, again and again. The Emmys do seem to have a soft spot for the gritty drug-running drama Ozark, and HBO’s Succession seems like exactly the kind of edgy, timely drama that would appeal to them.

To me, Succession, Better Call Saul and The Mandalorian are the most deserving shows up for the top prize, but in my heart I’m rooting for Mando, because it captures my imagination the most.* We’ll find out what happens when the 72nd Primetime Emmys air this Sunday on ABC.

*There are other great shows that could have been nominated but weren’t, like The Expanse on Amazon. And HBO’s Watchmen deserves some accolades, but it’s being nominated everywhere as a miniseries, which will no doubt help it win a pile of statues.

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