Dune movie could clear $1 billion worldwide, per analysts

Is Dune going to be for Warner Bros. what Star Wars is for Disney, or will people be put off by the cerebral sci-fi story? Analysts get into it:

Denis Villeneuve’s Dune would be the cinematic event of 2020…if it were still releasing in 2020. Unfortunately, the science fiction epic has been pushed back to October of 2021 in light of so many theaters still being closed thanks to the coronavirus. Best wait until they’re back on they’re back on their feet; releasing the movie this year is too big a risk.

And Warner Bros. can’t really afford a risk given that it’s spent $200 million making the thing. This is a big play for the studio, a major sci-fi tentpole movie that could become for Warner Bros. what Star Wars is for Disney. The trailer certainly looks good, Villeneuve’s credentials speak for themselves, and the original book by Frank Herbert is one of the best-selling sci-fi novels of all time. Will all this translate to franchise gold?

If you ask Comscore Senior Media Analyst Paul Dergarabedian, the answer is yes. “This is a huge brand with a major filmmaker backed by a very filmmaker-centric studio,” Dergarabedian told Observer. “Moving release dates doesn’t show a lack of confidence in theaters. It’s the opposite. It shows that Warner Bros. has confidence both in the long game and in the property as it would rather wait for theaters to return.”

"Interest is off the charts…This is a movie with the global potential of $1 billion. I can see this becoming that kind of film with worldwide appeal in the vein of James Bond."

I’m certainly interested in seeing the movie, but then again, I’m a bid nerd who’s into this kind of thing. Jeff Bock, Senior Box Office analyst at Exhibitor Relations, wonders if Dune is a little too cerebral to catch on like Star Wars, which is a little more fun. “It’s no secret that WB wants its own Star Wars franchise,” he said. “So, for starters, to be successful on that scale you need to have cross-promotions and partners that will invest in your product. Unfortunately, Dune is not Star Wars in that sense. Target and Walmart aren’t going to be selling action figures and sandworms aren’t going to make their way into McDonalds’ Happy Meals anytime soon. Unfortunately for WB, hardcore sci-fi, even when adored by critics as [Blade Runner 2049] was, is largely ignored by the multiplex masses.”

It’s true that “hard” sci-fi movies like Villeneuve’s own Blade Runner 2049 or Ad Astra haven’t blown up the box office, although there are exceptions. For example, Gravity made $725 million on a $100 million budget when it came out back in 2013, although that movie was anchored by a star turn from Sandra Bullock to lure people in. Dune itself has a tremendous cast –including  Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Jason Momoa, Oscar Isaac, Dave Bautista, Josh Brolin and more — which is very much on purpose: if people are put off by Dune’s big ideas and heady narrative, perhaps they’ll show up for all the stars.

I think Dune’s chances of being a big hit are pretty good — I mean, even if it’s darker than Star Wars, the story has clearly struck a chord with fans over the decade — but Bock preaches caution. “In terms of real numbers, [Dune] probably needs to get closer to $500 million worldwide to be a success for everyone involved,” he said. “And with the amount already invested in spin-off potential, the sequel will have to exceed that number, and not pull a Fantastic Beasts. That’s a huge ask for a dark sci-fi flick. This is a massive gamble for WB, but I suppose you have to go big, or go fortify your streaming content.”

That’s the other tricky bit: Dune is set to cover only the first half of Herbert’s book, with a sequel partially contingent on how much it makes. HBO Max also ordered a series about the Bene Gesserit sisterhood. There’s a lot riding on the movie, and I for one am crossing my fingers that it blows us all away.

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