In honor of the Iron Anniversary, we’re continuing our series on how Game of Thrones might have been different had certain big events gone another way. This time, it’s all about the Red Viper of Dorne.
Imagine a world where Oberyn Martell survived his battle with the Mountain in the fourth season of Game of Thrones. While leaving the show after one incredible season did wonders for Pedro Pascal’s career, the character of Oberyn was immediately missed, especially since after he suffered one of the show’s most horrific, gruesome and shocking deaths.
As all fans remember, the Mountain crushed Oberyn’s head with his bare hands after they fought a trial by combat to determine the guilt of Tyrion Lannister in the murder of King Joffrey Baratheon (justice is funny in Westeros). What rankles about the fight is that the Viper had basically won. If he’d finished the job instead of trying to get the Mountain to confess to his crimes to the crowd, Gregor Clegane wouldn’t have been able to grab him and pop his skull like a gusher…yikes.
This swift turn of the tide is a pivotal moment in the series. Had Oberyn survived his battle, here are a few things that would definitely not have happened, or at least not the way they did: Oberyn’s paramour Ellaria Sand wouldn’t have killed Myrcella Baratheon out of revenge, Tyrion wouldn’t have been convicted for Joffrey’s murder and wouldn’t need to escape King’s Landing for his life, and Cersei wouldn’t have The Mountain as her personal zombie guard.
Would Tywin still survive? What would happen to the Lannister family? What would happen with Dorne? Let’s explore a bit.
Lannister vs Martell
First of all, we know that Gregor Clegane isn’t the type of person to confess his crimes while dying. Literally as he crushes Oberyn’s head, he admits to the rape and murder of Oberyn’s sister Elia Martell and her children, but absent those circumstances it’s very unlikely he would do the same thing.
But Oberyn wouldn’t need a confession to know who was responsible for his family’s massacre: Gregor Clegane may have done the deed, but Tywin Lannister gave the order. With the Mountain out of the way, Oberyn would turn his wrath on the head of House Lannister.
Tywin is a man with a plan for everything. Now he’s surrounded by problems on all sides. Even though Tyrion is now innocent, he is not safe in King’s Landing from his sister, who still firmly believes that he is responsible for her son’s death. Tywin can’t have Lannisters killing Lannisters, especially with the realm scattered and the tides of rebellion rising in the south.
First, Tywin decides to send Tyrion north to Winterfell. As a free man, Tyrion is the rightful Lord of Winterfell due to his marriage to Sansa Stark. Tyrion is tasked with keeping a close eye on the Boltons and improving the Northern economy in order to help fill the crown’s dwindling treasury. Before leaving, Tyrion would have a final confrontation with Shae about her testimony at her trial, where he learns of her affair with his father. Tyrion would kill Shae in the same fit of passionate rage as in the original show. However; after turning himself in for the crime he finds that nobody cares about someone of her station. Racked with guilt, he travels to Winterfell intent on punishing himself.
Second, Tywin turns to deal with the Dornish problem. Oberyn makes it clear that peace is no longer an option for him and returns to Dorne to convince his brother Doran to raise their armies in rebellion. To ensure their protection, Tywin quickly marries Cersei to Loras Tyrell and instructs the Tyrell forces to begin marching south to guard the border to Dorne. Cersei remains at King’s Landing as her new husband leads the Tyrell forces into the fray. However, unbeknownst to the Lannisters, Oberyn and Loras struck up a close friendship while Oberyn was in the city. After seeing flashes of his former lover Renly in the way that Oberyn talks about change, freedom and liberation, Loras defects to the Dornish side. He marches his forces to Highgarden and declares himself the Warden of the South in service to the rightful Queen of the Seven Kingdoms: Myrcella Baratheon, recently married to the young Trystane Martell, son of Doren and nephew to Oberyn. In a move that harkens back to George R.R. Martin’s books, the Dornish raise the Lannister daughter as the rightful Queen of the Realm, claiming that under law, she inherits the Iron Throne before her younger brother Tommen.
Tyrion at Winterfell
Meanwhile, in the North, Tyrion struggles to acclimate himself to the harsh climate and strange people who now surround him. The Boltons and their pet, Reek, unsettle him. What is there to do here but drink himself into the grave? This time, sadly, he doesn’t have Varys to stop him and is unaware of Daenerys’ existence. For a while, he rules Winterfell in name only as the Boltons continue to expand their armies and influence in the North. Tyrion is woken from his drunken stupor when he gets closer to Reek, aka Theon Greyjoy. During this time, he also becomes aware of the White Walker threat as well as the advancing armies of Stannis Baratheon. He tries to convince the Northmen to make peace and fight the White Walker’s together, but is thrown into the dungeon for his efforts. However, Theon brings him books to pass the time in his cell and Tyrion discovers the true parentage of Jon Snow in the ancient records. With a renewed purpose, he convinces Theon to escape with him as the Boltons fight Stannis, and they go in search of Jon Snow.
Back in the South, Tywin watches his kingdom crumble around him and searches for a way out. He has the Lannister army, half the Tyrell forces, and the Kingsguard, which should be more than sufficient to fight Dorne. However, this war would pit brother against sister and decimate all armies involved. He may have risked it even still, if it weren’t for Varys leaving King’s Landing. After Varys flees the city, Tywin starts paying more attention to the rumors a lost Targaryen child in Essos rumored to have three dragons. Tywin realizes that if this war is fought, there will be no one left to defend the country against the oncoming storm. So he begins planning.
In order to appease the Lords of Westeros, who believe that a son is more qualified to rule than a daughter regardless of age, Tywin poisons his grandchild Tommen, not enough to kill him but enough to destroy his mind and make him incapable of rule. Tywin allows Myrcella to ascend the Iron Throne under the condition that he remain Hand to the Queen and that the traitor Loras Tyrell be arrested and tried for treason. But even all this is done, Tywin remains surrounded by silent enemies, mainly his own daughter, who suspects him in the poisoning of her son. After Loras is sentenced to join the Night’s Watch for his crimes, Cersei has both Loras and Margery murdered in secret. Olenna takes her army and returns home, leaving the Lannister’s behind until something better can arrive.
Tyrion reaches the Wall and finds Jon Snow, newly raised from the dead and preparing to march south with a host of Wildlings. Tyrion reveals his true parentage to him and Jon agrees to take his throne after defeating the White Walkers.
Later, when Daenerys arrives in Westeros, she is met this time by a marriage proposal from Jon Snow. He aims to unify the North and South and combine their forces to take out the White Walkers. Daenerys agrees, because she needs Jon’s help in order to defeat the combined forces of the Lannisters and the Martells. The Battle at Winterfell plays out much the same as it does in the show and the remaining armies turn their sights on the Iron Throne. Daenerys is unable to make a peace with the Martells or the Lannisters and takes the Iron Throne by force. This time, the casualties are much, since the Lannister and Martell forces outnumber the weakened Northeners. Dany unleashes her dragons and wins the throne, but it comes with a great cost.
Instead of allowing Tywin to bend the knee and return to Casterly Rock, she executes him. This leads Tyrion to conspire against her and crown Jon Snow, aka Aegon Targaryen, as the rightful king of the Seven Kingdoms.
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