With HBO Max dropping glimpses of House of the Dragon season 3 in its “hard launch” video, the anticipation for the Targaryen civil war is running high. Although Matt Smith in an interview with This Morning, spoiled the release of season 3, set to be in August 2026, the wait still seems long. In the meantime, let's prepare ourselves for some major losses that await us in season 3.
Season 2 left off with both factions ready and afoot for battle. Both the Blacks and the Greens are no longer preparing; they are marching and positioning for war, meaning with season 3, we officially enter the most destructive phase of the Dance of the Dragons. It's very likely that the first episode of this season will begin with a bang, with fire and blood spilling at the Battle of the Gullet. This action-heavy season is packed with major, devastating battles like the Battle at Tumbleton and the Battle at Harrenhal, and with that, we can expect some major, heartbreaking deaths.
Let's take a look at which characters are most at risk in season 3.
Spoilers ahead for "Fire & Blood" and potential season 3 events.
1. Jacaerys Velaryon
If there is one death that is most dreaded, it is that of Rhaenyra Targaryen's eldest son and heir, Jacaerys Velaryon.
Opening the season with the Battle of the Gullet, which could be described as the bloodiest naval engagement in the history of Westeros, Prince Jacaerys becomes one of the first to fall in this gruesome civil war. As we saw in the final episode of season 2, both parties are prepared to take on the fight at sea. We have Lord Corlys Velaryon with his illegitimate son and first mate, Alyn of Hull, on one end, who fight the Greens - the Triarchy and Tyland Lannister's troop on the other end. As the battle begins and devastation strikes, Prince Jacaerys joins the Blacks on his dragon Vermax. Corlys's forces are later joined by the other dragon seeds to successfully break the Triarchy fleet, but at a great expense. The Blacks emerge victorious but lose both Prince Jacaerys and his dragon Vermax in the midst of this bloody battle.
According to GRRM's book Fire & Blood, Jace's dragon Vermax is shot by crossbows and falls into the sea over burning ships and drowns to its death. While Jace manages to leap from his dragon and cling to a piece of wreckage, he doesn't survive long as he is ruthlessly showered with crossbows and meets his end.
Positioned at the heart of this battle, Jace's tragic death is symbolic and marks a turning point in the civil war. As Rhaenyra loses not only her son and heir, but this event destabilizes the Black faction politically, and the war then becomes about survival and not succession. Jace's death devastates Rhaenyra emotionally, and it fuels her ambition not only for the throne but for revenge, ultimately raising the stakes dramatically. As for the results of the battle, both parties emerge with tremendous loss and grief.
2. Otto Hightower
Towards the end of season 2, Otto Hightower and his usefulness were seen to rapidly diminish.
With Aegon burned and bedridden, and Aemond taking control, things seemed out of control on the Greens' side. To add to that, Otto, who left for Oldtown, went missing and was last seen captured in a dungeon. It is not yet revealed who and how Otto was captured, but it will be interesting to see if and how he reunites with the Greens.
Regardless, as the war escalated beyond calculated moves, Otto's political maneuvering and planning could no longer win them the war. In the books, Otto is executed when Rhaneyra takes King's Landing. Although, with Otto being captive for quite a long while, he was missing during the new developments in the war, and we are yet to see him escape and find his way back. But considering his scheming and manipulative nature, he might get out of captivity and find himself in the midst of the chaos, with the Greens destabilized and scattered.
If the showrunners have him executed it is very likely that we see him and Rhaenyra in the same frame, and what might unfold will most likely be his end, either executed by Rhaenyra herself, or by one of the Blacks or maybe even by Daemon. There is a lower possibility of his life being spared, as Otto conspiring and usurping her throne is reason enough for her to execute him, but there will be more reasons that fuel her anger to do so.
After losing Jace at the Gullet and taking the throne, she will definitely want her revenge and most definitely want to execute Aegon Targaryen. But as we know, from the final episode of season 2, Larys Strong secretly escapes with Aegon, and Aemond would be away fighting, leaving the throne empty, which will turn out to seem just as empty as Alicent's promise to surrender her son. This could push Rhaenyra further and escalate mistrust, giving her more reason to execute Otto instead.
Rather than dying gloriously in battlefield, Otto's fate is more likely to be sealed through execution, imprisonment, or quiet disposal. This narrative is also symbolic of how the man who set the war in motion meets his end quietly, leaving no mark.
3. Helaena Targaryen
Helaena's prophetic visions and insight to the future events plays a key role in this story, but season 3 may bring it to a conclusion.
While her death is not guaranteed in season 3, the aftermath of the multiple battles, continued violence, and loss, places her in a very vulnerable position. In the books, Helaena meets her end after throwing herself from the window, overwhelmed by grief and madness from the murder of her youngest son, Maelor. But in HBO's adaptation, Helaena has two children, Jaehaerys Targaryen, whom she lost in a tragic murder, and Jaehaera, while Maelor is cut from the story. So it will be interesting to see the role she plays during the battles and the arc of her story.
Considering Aemond insisting Helaena to fly on Dreamfyre to battle with him, it is yet to be seen if she does or doesn't fly to battle. But one thing we can expect to see is the psychological toll that the war takes on her, and what insight her visions give us about the events to come. As we enter a very disturbing phase of the war with season 3, it is likely that the violence that unfolds pushes her past the point of endurance and her end be sealed. Her death would definitely mark a pivotal moment in the story, signifying and heightening loss and grief in the bloody war, leaving all of us heartbroken.
4. Ser Criston Cole
Arguably the most hated characters of them all, Criston Cole might be wrapping up his character arc in season 3.
Skilled at combat and with experience in commanding a (not-so-successful) attack at the Battle of Rook's Rest, Criston Cole has proven to be one of the key and powerful players for the Greens' faction. But pairing up with Aemond for his schemes and strategies so far hasn't always gone as planned, and the major reason is both Aemond's and Criston's recklessness and unpredictability. As armies grow and dragons dominate the battlefield, Criston's role as commander will become increasingly significant and fatal, as he has a track record of being prone to miscalculation and misjudgment, costing the Greens immensely.
So, although his character might not say goodbye till late season 3 or probably in season 4, it'll be interesting to see his arc further develop amidst the battles and his role in influencing more chaos. According to "Fire & Blood", Criston Cole meets his demise at an event known as "The Butcher's Ball." After Rhaenyra and Daemon take King's Landing by tricking Aemond and Cole into attacking Harrenhal, both of them go their separate ways in a mission to reclaim the throne. But Cole is outnumbered as he encounters several Lords of the Riverlands and the North, and although he surrenders, pleading for the lives of his men, even calling for trial by combat, he is struck by arrows, bringing his story to an end.
There is no confirmation about Cole's end, but if it does in season 3, his role in the battles to come will be significant, and his death will be poetic, as the "Kingmaker" will meet his end amidst the very war and violence he drove.
5. Prince Daeron Targaryen and Ormund Hightower
It is very likely that the new key characters from season 2, and the new key characters yet to be introduced in season 3, meet their end in a singular mega event in season 3.
Season 3 will introduce two of the "biggest new roles" as per showrunner Ryan Condal- Ormund Hightower, Otto Hightower's nephew and head of House Hightower, along with Prince Daeron Targaryen, the youngest son of Alicent Hightower. In addition to that, a leaked footage of the filming of House of the Dragon season 3 battle scene featuring Ormund Hightower and Daemon Targaryen, suggests that this season will include the Battle of Tumbleton, meaning a few more deaths are definitely scheduled for this season.
The Battle of Tumbleton is a key event in the Dance of Dragons, which ultimately leads to death, destruction, and betrayal, shifting the momentum of the war and burning most of Tumbleton. Considering how the events of the Battle of Tumbleton unfold in the book, devastation strikes not once but twice in the town. As per "Fire & Blood, the First Battle of Tumbleton involves the Green army led by Ormund Hightower, against the Blacks led by Roderick Dustin, with a shocking twist of betrayal by two of Rhaenyra's dragonseeds. Dragonseeds Hugh Hammer (on Vermithor) and Ulf White (on Silverwing) mid-battle betray their loyalties and attack the Black allies, showering dragon fire onto them, and causing massive loss for the Blacks. Although the Greens emerge victorious, their leader Ormund is fallen in the chaos of this battle.
As a result of this betrayal, the second battle began. Dragonseed Addam of Hull, who is also the illegitimate son of Lord Corlys Velaryon, to prove his loyalty to Rhaenyra, sets out on his dragon Seasmoke to sneak and attack the remaining Green army in the middle of the night. This leads to a three-way dragon fight between Seasmoke (ridden by Addam) and two other riderless dragons, Vermithor (Hugh's dragon), and Tessarion (Prince Daeron's dragon), resulting in the horrific death of Addam, Seasmoke and Vermithor, and Tessarion mortally wounded, later put out of misery by an archer. Amidst all of this, Prince Dareon also loses his life, in an uncertain event, Hugh is killed by Ser Jon Roxton with his Valyrian steel as he was preparing for battle, and Ulf dies of poison wine, poisoned by Ser Hobert Hightower, who mistrusted him.
In a singular event, this battle sees the end of many major characters and their dragons, who may or may not perish in HBO's adaptation. But with the spoiler footage and the presence of Daemon in the battle scene, who was originally not a part of it, it is confirmed that the story is expected to unfold differently from that of the books. Regardless, this battle is action packed, betrayal packed, and dragon packed guaranteed to shake things up in the war. The Battle of Tumbleton will surely be a spectacle to watch, with multiple dragons dancing with fire mid-air and with the plot thickening as motives and loyalties shift mid-battle.
Other minor characters and dragons in danger
In another highly anticipated chaotic moments during the war, is the brutal event of "The Storming of the Dragonpit". This massacre is one of the bloodiest moments of the battle, which is a result of the consequences of the war.
According to the books, after Rhaenyra claims the Iron Throne, the small folk, furious and starving, riot the streets of King's Landing. They storm into the dragonpit with weapons and fire to kill the dragons and their riders with them. This ambush results in the death of Prince Joffrey Velaryon, Helaena's dragon Dreamfyre, Rhaenyra's dragon Syrax and other dragons and minor characters who get trapped in the pit.
We'll have to wait to see who survives this horrifying event, but we can definitely expect this carnage and pivotal moment to be a part of season 3 bringing more blood, more fire, more chaos, and more devastating scenes.
Season 3 is filled with some of the most cinematic and brutal battle scenes ever seen, with fire and blood spilling everywhere. It will be a ride to watch multiple character arcs soaring and multiple characters ending amidst the war. And not to forget multiple magnificent dragons flying and falling in battles.
The wait till August 2026 seems far away, but it won't be long before we get to see the land of Westeros in a different era, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms set to release on January 16, ringing in the new year. In the meantime, let's get excited to immerse ourselves in Westeros, 100 years before Game of Thrones, and 80-90 years after House of the Dragon.