Could James Cameron be thinking of abandoning the Avatar franchise if the latest film, Avatar: Fire and Ash, isn't a smash hit? From the sounds of a recent interview, the answer is yes.
The build is coming for Avatar: Fire and Ash. The long-awaited third film in James Cameron’s sci-fi saga is set to join its predecessors as a billion-dollar hit, continuing to grow the franchise. Cameron famously declared that he has a five-film plan for the saga and hopes it will come to fruition. However, speaking on The Town with Matthew Belloni podcast (via IGN), Cameron admitted he was nervous about Fire and Ash’s box office performance due to various issues such as “sequelitis.”
"People tend to dismiss sequels unless it’s the third Lord of the Rings film and you want to see what happens to everybody, which in my mind this is — this is the culmination of a story arc, but that may not be how the public sees it," he said.
Cameron also mused on the realities of the industry, including fewer people are going to theaters these days thanks to the rise of streaming and the COVID-19 pandemic changing viewing habits. That makes any movie a risk, especially one with as big-budget as Avatar.
While the budget is rumored to be anywhere from $250-300 million, Cameron simply said, “It is one metric f**k ton of money, which means we have to make two metric f**k tons of money to make a profit. I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will make money. The question is, does it make enough money to justify doing it again?”
Thus, the big question was asked: Would Cameron give up on the franchise if Fire and Ash fails to deliver and Disney won’t finance another entry?
Could the Avatar series end with Fire and Ash?
When pressed on it, Cameron revealed that yes, he would “absolutely” leave behind the Avatar franchise if the third movie isn't successful enough to continue.
“I’ve been in Avatar land for 20 years. Actually 30 years because I wrote it in ‘95, but I wasn’t working continuously on it for those first 10 years," he said. "Yeah, absolutely, sure. If this is where it ends, cool. There’s one open thread. I’ll write a book!”
It seems like a crazy idea to simply give up on this long-standing passion project. As noted, Cameron took over a decade to develop the first Avatar movie before putting it together. This is a man who knows how to take huge risks that pay off, such as Titanic. However, the sad reality is that if the third movie fails to deliver for fans or, more importantly, the studio, then continuing the franchise is a money and time-wasting expense.
Cameron was quick to state that he would not let Avatar continue under a new creative team. “Absolutely not! I have choices there. There are levels in which I immerse. I could produce it. I don’t think there’d ever be a version where there’s another Avatar movie that I didn’t produce closely. But in terms of taking over my life, that’s a threshold issue for me.”
So no, this wouldn’t be like George Lucas selling off Star Wars and Indiana Jones to other people. Avatar was always Cameron’s baby, so he won’t let others play in his sandbox. Cameron has hinted he is interested in other projects, such as adapting the novels Ghosts of Hiroshima and The Devils. If there are no Avatar sequels, he can always work on those or continue the Alita: Battle Angel saga.
James Cameron is known for playing by his own rules and not getting pigeonholed by one genre. It may be better if he lets go of Avatar and turns his unique vision to another property or a fresh film. While ending the saga as a trilogy would be sudden, continuing it for another two movies might drag things out too much. Perhaps it would be better for the franchise to go out on a high note and let some books wrap the dangling plot threads up.
This all may be a moot point if Avatar: Fire and Ash becomes another billion-dollar hit film and Disney gives Cameron the go-ahead for the final two films to end the saga. Still, that Cameron is bold enough to walk away if the movie doesn’t live up to expectations shows how seriously he takes these movies, and why Avatar is his crowning achievement.
Avatar: Fire and Ash premieres in theaters on December 19.