One of the biggest plot points in season 1 of Game of Thrones was that the Baratheon seed was strong, making it impossible for Cersei Lannister's blonde kid to be the trueborn children of her husband King Robert. House of the Dragon is trying to replicate the plot with Rhaenyra Targaryen's children, arguing that their dark hair is proof that they are not actually the trueborn children of her late husband Laenor Velaryon. However, it is not nearly as successful as its predecessor, to the extent that the show is hurt each time it is brought up.
In George R.R. Martin's Fire & Blood, the book on which House of the Dragon is based, the idea that Harwin Strong is the real father of Rhaenyra's children is a rumor that Alicent eagerly spreads, but it is never outright confirmed one way or the other. The show chose to confirm that the children are indeed Harwin's, which makes it more frustrating to waste time debating it. It's an open secret, and the repeated references to hair color reflect the idea that it should matter...but it doesn't.
Taking it at face value, there are plenty of reasons that Rhaenyra's kids Jace, Luke, and Joffrey could actually be Laenor's children, in spite of their appearance. But beyond that, it is unnecessary to the story to spend so much time on whether the boys are Laenor's or not. When Jace yells at Rhaenyra for not expecting him to have brown hair, it feels silly, especially compared to the other problems at hand.
By making physical appearance such a deciding factor in legitimacy, House of the Dragon is approaching a point where hair color is more important than political intrigue, which is the wrong direction for a franchise that is explicitly supposed to be about the moves people make when trying to gain power.
Why appearance is not proof of paternity
The world of A Song of Ice and Fire has always put an unnecessarily large amount of weight behind physical appearance when it comes to understanding family dynamics. As previously stated, hair color was considered proof that Cersei was cheating on Robert in the original series.
More than that, each of the Great Houses had distinct physical features. For example, Catelyn Stark and Lysa Arryn both have auburn hair and blue eyes, which are considered Tully features, tying them back to their birth families despite their married names.
However, that is a trend, not a rule. Of Catelyn and Ned Stark's five children, only one (Arya) had traditional Stark features in the original books. Even so, their legitimacy was never questioned, since everybody accepted that the other children looked like their mother. Similarly, the short story The Hedge Knight claimed that Baelor Targaryen "does not look a Targaryen in truth, with that dark hair." However, when it was explained that his mother is Dornish, the oddity was easily moved past.
In House of the Dragon, the problem is that Jace, Luke, and Joffrey don't look like either of their parents. Both House Targaryen and House Velaryon are defined, in the show, by their silver hair. The show also made Corlys Velaryon and his family have dark skin. Since the boys have light skin and dark hair, it is supposed to be incredibly obvious that they are Harwin Strong's children.
However, it is still biologically possible for them to be Laenor's children. While their skin color is an implicit sign to the audience (and other characters) that the boys are Harwin Strong's, there are plenty of mixed-race children in the real world who look more like one race or the other. Within the world of Game of Thrones, the Targaryens intermarried with House Martell in both directions, yet there were still "Valyrian" Targaryens and "Dornish" Martells.
Since hair color is what the show overtly discusses, however, that's where I'll spend more time. In Fire & Blood, Rhaenys Targaryen "had the black hair of her Baratheon mother," which might explain where the boys had gotten their dark hair. What makes Rhaenys' black hair so significant is that her ancestry was predominantly Valyrian. In addition to her Targaryen father (and his Targaryen parents), Rhaenys' maternal grandmother was Queen Alyssa Velaryon. Just one Baratheon grandparent gave her distinctive Baratheon features, yet her claim to the throne was never questioned.
Although she has silver hair in the show, Rhaenys is still a Baratheon, and so her grandchildren absolutely could have dark hair. Furthermore, Rhaenyra's mother was an Arryn, which is another place that more "common" features might have come from. There are multiple Targaryens in the books who had brown hair because of their parents or grandparents coming from non-Valyrian houses, so it's completely possible that the boys could be biologically Laenor's. Although granted, the show eliminates the possibility by giving Rhaenys silver hair.
The biological truth doesn't actually matter
While there is enough evidence to provide reasonable doubt that appearance defines parentage, it ultimately doesn't matter. The audience is told outright that Rhaenyra's kids are Harwin Strong's children, but Rhaenyra, Laenor, and Viserys all publicly deny that claim. Because of that, they are legally Laenor's children, no matter what anyone else might have to say about it.
The franchise draws heavily on real-world monarchies, which provide an important perspective. Historically speaking, it wasn't uncommon for rumors to spread that royal children were illegitimate. But the rumors weren't publicly addressed unless the person saying it had some degree of proof, an army, and an alternative heir to put forth. Questioning legitimacy was an incredibly dangerous move. It was not generally done for moral reasons, but as an excuse to put someone loyal to them on the throne instead.
When Alicent and her children repeatedly called Rhaenyra's children "bastards," that should be a reckless and dangerous claim, not an obvious one. As Rhaenyra herself pointed out in season 1, that kind of claim is treasonous. That's why Ned Stark was killed when he claimed Joffrey was a bastard. It shouldn't matter whether the children's paternity is an open secret or not, because calling it out should get someone killed.
As Baela asks Jace in the second season, "Do you believe that you are the first noble heir who was not sired by his noble father?" This sort of thing happens all the time, and it usually doesn't matter because it is dangerous for an outsider to question the validity of an heir that has been accepted by both parents (and the king) as legitimate.
Every person who threatens Rhaenyra and her children over their paternity is making an incredibly stupid political decision. The fact that more people weren't beheaded like Ser Vaemond Velaryon makes very little sense, and it's a weakness to the story not to acknowledge that more often.
How this focus hurts the story
Having outsiders judge Rhaenyra's children by their appearance is a weak narrative choice. The Greens already had Aegon's sex as a reason he should succeed Viserys, and his children would then be next in line. The legitimacy of Rhaenyra's children was a much smaller matter, which should have stayed a sign of their pettiness, not an important fact everyone was choosing to ignore.
Game of Thrones has always focused on how people get power and how serious the consequences can be when they misstep. However, House of the Dragon has repeatedly ignored the obvious consequences that should have come from questioning Jace and his siblings. If the writers are unwilling to punish people for their poor political choices, and if it's already confirmed that Rhaenyra's children are Harwin's, then it's not worth bringing up anyway.
But it's also hurting the show to have Jace himself claiming his appearance as a weakness. While his insecurity in the face of other legitimized bastards is a worthwhile matter to discuss from a character standpoint, it would be just as effective to rely on Rhaenyra's confirmation, rather than his hair color. After all, Addam of Hull is confirmed to be the son of Corlys Velaryon and a Targaryen-descended mother, and guess what color his hair is?
House of the Dragon has consistently struggled with issues of pacing. In season 1, decades of tension and snubs were rushed through, with multiple time jumps eliminating consequences for characters' actions. In the second season, the story dragged on, repeating the same plot points over and over in an attempt to stall the oncoming war.
The emphasis on Rhaenyra's children's appearances is yet another thing that has been overdone in the show, taking time away from scenes that could advance the characters or the plot in engaging ways. There are so many stronger directions that the show could go in, but it continues to linger on the idea that hair color should have any influence on legitimacy and who has a right to the throne. Rather than exploring the nuances of royal families or the complexities of war, the audience gets an elementary school understanding of genetics shoved down their throats on a loop.
Show me Rhaenyra grappling with how her actions have impacted Helaena, the only Green sibling she had a positive relationship with and a fellow mother whose child was killed for no reason. Show me Jace putting himself in increasingly dangerous situations to prove why he 'deserves' the throne more than the dragonseeds. But don't make me sit through another line like, "Did you think I would have dark hair?"
There is a lot of content to fit into season 3, so this plotline will hopefully be dropped in favor of ones that will actually impact the story. Because if the Blacks win the war, who Rhaenyra names as heir is all that will matter, and if the Greens win, then her children will be dead anyway.
I can only hope that the writers will finally stop acting like the color of a person's hair has any bearing on their future when they have fire-breathing dragons to effectively decide every dispute in a realm-shattering trial by combat.
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