"“The road to hell is paved with good intentions.”"Saint Bernard, 12th Century
All good men can succumb to evil. We are all capable of it. For some, their choices determine their descent, but for others, they are given little or no choice at all. This, I feel, will be the case for Hugh Hammer, a character introduced in the second season of House of the Dragon.
Already, we have seen Hugh forced into circumstances that weren’t truly of his own making. This character has a better heart than most, having had to suffer the indignities of being a bastard and living in poverty in King’s Landing, but despite his desire to make change for himself and his family, the world he is in simply won’t allow it. Let's take a look into this character's upcoming possible storyline for season 3 of House of the Dragon.
Beware SPOILERS from here on it!
Once a blacksmith in King’s Landing, Hugh Hammer's family begins to struggle under the increasing pressures of a city under blockade. As with many common folk, starvation began to set in, and with the responsibility of caring for an ill child, Hugh's situation was likely more dire than most. Despite the promise of pay from King Aegon himself, nothing was delivered, forcing Hugh to have to steal food when Rhaenyra provided aid in Season 2, Episode 6, "Smallfolk."
The first step on Hugh’s downward path is the death of his daughter. It hist him so hard that he even revealed his deepest secret to his wife, Kat: "She [Hugh's Mother] used to tell me I was no different to her brother's boys, Viserys and Daemon.” It is not solely the fact that their daughter died, or that she was their only child, but also the severe indignity of it. The result of the Velaryon blockade (and the Green’s incompetent administration of the city), has brought suffering to the thousands of poor commoners in King’s Landing. A desire to change that state of affairs clearly drives Hugh’s decision to leave the city and answer Rhaenyra’s call for Dragonseeds. It's a choice made with the best of intentions, but ultimately drives a wedge between him and Kat, who tells him, “I do not care to be a lady, Hugh. And neither do I want to be a widow.” Blinded by his grief, Hugh’s thought process was likely this: that even a single man with enough power can make a difference to so many people. Little did he know that so many tyrants also begin by thinking this way.
Claiming a dragon will always affect the rider, for good or for ill. Ultimately, like how a Targaryen’s fate is determined when the gods flip a coin, the same can be applied to the moment they claim their dragon. Where some remain noble, like Rhaenyra (with Syrax), or Addam (with Seasmoke), others falter, becoming something else entirely. Aemond, for example, was small and overlooked compared to his elder brother, Aegon. But the moment he claimed Vhagar, his character immediately changed.
Hugh ends up claiming the dragon Vermithor. When they bond, we see a glint in Hugh's eyes. It lasts only for a moment, but the course of his life has suddenly flipped on its head. Already, he can feel the power of a dragon. To many, like Rhaenyra's son Jacaerys, this is the exact problem with Rhaenyra’s plan to allow smallfolk to become dragn-riders. Jace, like many other nobles, can see the writing on the wall.
"“House Targaryen is blood of the Dragon, if any may lay claim to it, what are we then?""Jacaerys Velaryon - Season 2, Episode 7
A natural order of succession is in place in Westeros for a specific reason: the retention of a powerful, feudal class over their subjects. This can be maintained honorably or tyrannically, depending on the ruler in question. But to get to the point, for a commoner, or bastard to suddenly gain a significant amount of power will undoubtedly upset the delicate balance that had kept the realm stable for generations.
Obviously, Jacaerys is also concerned with his own position, knowing full-well that he is not the true-born son of Laenor and Rhaenyra. Hugh Hammer looks more like a Targaryen than him, and now this previously unknown bastard is riding the second-largest dragon in the world.
"“The idea that we control the dragons is an illusion.”"Viserys Targaryen - Season 1, Episode 1
To claim a dragon is not the same as maintaining permanent control over it. Dragons, like men, are sentient beings with minds of their own. And the larger the dragon, the more independent they will naturally be. We have already seen Aemond lose control of Vhagar and Lucerys lose control of Arrax in the season 1 finale, proving that no rider can truly control their dragon. Vermithor is the second-largest dragon in the world and arguably more aggressive than even Vhagar; you don't get a nickname like “The Bronze Fury” without good reason.
If House of the Dragon follows the outline set out in George R.R. Martin's book Fire & Blood, Hugh Hammer (and his fellow peasant dragon-rider Ulf White) will eventually betray Rhaenyra and the Blacks, turning their coats and helping the Greens. In the book, Hugh and Ulf betray Rhaenyra mainly because of their inflated egos, but it's hard to know if things will be the same in House of the Dragon. In the book, it was suggested that Aemond intentionally tried to kill Lucerys above Storm’s End, but in House of the Dragon it's revealed that Vhagar the dragon largely acted on her own, even if Aemond set up the situation.
Being a bastard in Westeros rarely results in a happy life, particularly among the highborn. They are always looked down upon and treated with such disgust that they are even deemed naturally treacherous. This is the kind of unforgiving world that Hugh now finds himself in, and things will only get worse once Rhaenyra takes King's Landing, as she does in the book. Dragonstone, being an isolated island, has its problems, but in comparison to the politicking of King’s Landing, it is a different animal entirely. Rhaenyra, with more rival lords surrounding her, will be forced to strike compromises between the unreliable noble lords at court and her bastard dragon-riders. Like Viserys says to Alicent in Season 1, Episode 3, “...I am forever doomed to anger one person in the pleasing of another.” Rhaenyra will be subject to such difficulties, and in a kingdom at war with itself, someone will have to lose out. Like Rhaenyra, no matter what Hugh could do, no matter how loyal he is, no matter how effective he is to the Black's cause, it will never be good enough in the eyes of many.
What will happen to Hugh Hammer in House of the Dragon season 3?
In the book, Daemon Targaryen tries to win Hugh and Ulf over by proposing that they be married to the eldest daughters of Lords Rosby and Stokeworth, both of whom are joined to the Green cause; that way, they would inherit the Stokeworth and Rosby lands and castles. However, at the urging of the Hand of the Queen, Corlys Velaryon, Rhaenyra refuses this plan, on the count that "Disinheriting their sons in favor of their daughters would overturn centuries of law and precedent...” Daemon later offers a similar proposal by offering Casterly Rock and Storm’s End to Hugh and Ulf, but once again, the offer is refused. It is a mistake made twice, and thus the insult to the Dragonseeds is doubly felt. It is possible that Daemon may not trust Hugh and Ulf, like most, but these attempts at placating them with lands and castles would be the best way to prevent them from turning their cloaks. Considering they have two of the largest dragons in the world, it will prove a fatal mistake for Rhaenyra to deny them.
Something that House of the Dragon has already set up is that Kat, Hugh’s wife, has family in the city of Tumbleton. Following the departure of Hugh from King’s Landing, Kat, I believe, will travel to the only people she has left in her life. It is possible that she could believe Hugh to be dead, as the likelihood of successfully claiming a dragon is extremely low. Fleeing King’s Landing, especially as she grieves her daughter’s death, seems the most plausible thing.
A tragic story twist could be that, in her belief that Hugh has dead, Kat could either start a new family in Tumbleton or outright refuse to take him back because he left her. It would be the spark that lights the fire inside Hugh, driving him to treachery. In the book, Hugh and Ulf's betrayal of Rhaenyra comes to light in the First Battle of Tumbleton, when the city is torched.
Another tragic possibility is that during the battle, Kat is killed in the chaos, possibly even by Vermithor’s own flames. It would signify Hugh losing the last vestige of love he had in his life, turning him into the selfish antagonist he will (I believe) ultimately become in season 4.
A final detail for Hugh’s story in season 3 regards a prophecy. Considering we have already seen two prophecies on the show — Viserys reciting the Song of Ice and Fire in season 1 and Daemon’s wierwood vision in season 2 — it’s possible that a one-prophecy-per-season approach could continue. The prophecy I speak of is, “...that the hammer would smash the dragon...” As far as I’m concerned, the prophecy actually refers to Robert’s Rebellion (if you know, you know), but like all prophecies, is interpreted wrongly by those who want it to be about them. It's unlikely this prophecy will be brought up in season 3, considering that there are only eight episodes, but if it were, Hugh’s character would have a sudden, renewed motivation to act on his worse impulses.
In all, Hugh Hammer is a compelling character, perhaps even endearing, a good man whose path to evil is laid by his own good intentions. We have already seen the beginnings of his story, showing the brief flicker in his eyes of what happens when someone is suddenly given the power of a dragon. Hugh is played so convincingly by actor Kieran Bew that I am looking forward to seeing his journey unfold in season 3.
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