One of the most important moments in the Game of Thrones franchise came when Ned Stark, who had seemed to be one of the main protagonists, lost his head. This told audiences that anybody could die at any time, a concept that drew a lot of fans in. Looking back, it actually seemed like this event was inevitable, with many steps clearly leading him to his execution.
With that being said, it can be interesting to think back on how things might have gone differently. Was there a point in the narrative where Ned or his family could have made different choices which would have changed his fate?
On a first watch, it seems like Ned's fate is in the hands of his daughter, Sansa Stark. She sends a letter to keep her brother Robb from going to war and begs the newly installed King Joffrey, her betrothed, for mercy. It really seems like she might have saved her father, who is given the option of mercy if he betrays his conscience and supports Joffrey's claim to the Iron Throne. But Joffrey ends up cutting off his head anyway in an attempt to show strength.
So what, if anything, would have saved Ned? Was there any moment where Ned or the other Starks could have made a different choice, and thereby saved Ned's life and maintained peace? Here, we explore eight potential turning points when things might have gone differently for the Stark patriarch.
Robert's Rebellion
Ned's death was a direct result of the conflict between himself and the Lannisters, and that conflict began during his and Robert Baratheon's war against the Targaryens. Going even further back, we could spin up a million what-ifs where Ned would never have even been relevant due to his brother Brandon's survival, but that seems excessive.
The key elements during Robert's Rebellion that set Ned on his path were: choosing not to claim the Iron Throne when he came to King's Landing, instead letting Robert take the throne and then speaking out against the Lannisters for their involvement in the deaths of the Mad King, Elia Martell, and her children. Had Ned become king, he never would have been in a position where he was beholden to Joffrey. Even with Robert as King, had Ned not been so vocal in his hatred of the Lannisters for Jaime breaking his oath and Tywin ordering the death of innocents, there may not have been any tension with that family to begin with.
However, it seems silly to believe that we need to go that far back to save Ned Stark. For one thing, too many events would have been different for the narrative to proceed in a predictable manner. But for another, there were events in Season One that seem like much more viable places to break from canon, where Ned might have had a chance to survive.
Bran climbing the Broken Tower
How many times did Catelyn Stark tell her son Bran not to climb, because he might fall? Plenty, and though his lack of skill was not the problem, his choice to climb the Broken Tower at Winterfell was incredibly significant. If he hadn't seen Cersei and Jaime Lannister having sex in the tower, Jaime never would have pushed him out of it, and much would have been different.
Many of Catelyn's decisions are prompted by the possibility of losing Bran, who falls into a coma after his fall. When an assassin comes to finish him off, she is set on a war path. The letter from her sister Lysa warning her about the Lannisters helped direct her focus, but it was Bran's life that mattered most. Had he never climbed (or fallen from) the tower, she wouldn't have gone to King's Landing for answers and justice.
That means she would have never met back up with Littlefinger, who misled her further and built up unearned trust with the Starks. She wouldn't have captured Tyrion, which had massive consequences we'll discuss later. Simply put, had Bran not fallen, many of the Stark-Lannister conflicts never would have happened. But while it would have changed everything, it was not the point of no return for Ned.
Becoming the Hand of the King
Perhaps Ned was doomed the moment he left Winterfell after accepting the position as Robert's Hand of the King. After all, his father, brother, sister, and eventually son all met their own deaths after leaving home. If he had rejected Robert's offer to be Hand, he presumably would have stayed in the North. But the two questions that must be asked are 1) Would that have saved him? and 2) Could he have survived the trip had he made different choices later?
For the first question, it seems highly likely that staying home would have protected Ned. After all, he would not have been within Joffrey's reach, and he would not have been in a position of sufficient power to require execution. However, Bran still saw Jaime and Cersei in the Tower, and an assassin likely still would have been sent to kill him, which might have sent Ned south anyway.
This doesn't seem like hte final turning point for Ned. Staying in the North would have kept him alive, but he could have stayed alive in the south had he made different choices down there, so let's continue to retrace his steps:
The fight between Arya and Joffrey
At this point in the story, there are definite tensions between the Starks and Lannisters, with more conflict to come. But there was hope that the children might be able to keep it from escalating. Sansa's betrothal to Prince Joffrey could have been a safety net to prevent either side from provoking the other.
But then Sansa's sister Arya and Joffrey fought. He threatened to kill her, and her direwolf attacked him. This made Joffrey in particular hate the Starks, and it also left both Stark girls without direwolves to protect them. In the broader political context, it cemented a more personal grudge on both sides, as the Starks now believed the Lannisters responsible for the attack on Bran, the death of Mycah, and the execution of Lady, while the Lannisters saw the Starks as responsible for an attack on Joffrey.
Had this fight not happened, there would have certainly been less tension between the families, particularly in the younger generation. Sansa and Arya also wouldn't have been turned against each other, which might have helped them later on. But it's hard to imagine that the necessary conclusion of the fight was Ned Stark's death, so this is not the moment that his fate was sealed.
Investigating Jon Arryn's death
Once the Stark contingent got to King's Landing, Ned could have simply gone about his duties as Hand, which would have produced minimal conflicts with the Lannisters. However, he needed to know what happened to his mentor Jon Arryn, the last Hand of the King, who died under mysteirous circumstances. This investigation put him in Littlefinger and Varys' sights, as well as eventually revealing the secret of Joffrey's birth.
Had Ned never figured out that Joffrey was a bastard, he would have tried to do as Robert asked and guided him to become a better leader. While that might not have been successful, since Joffrey was already pretty far gone at this point, it would have prevented Ned from being arrested and killed for treason. Furthermore, he might not have been seen as a threat by the puppetmasters in King's Landing puppet masters, both of whom would ultimately betray him.
With that being said, the Song of Ice and Fire books indicate that King Robert's brother Stannis already knew the truth about the king's children, so he may have told Ned anyway. In that case, Ned would have been bound by honor to defend the legitimate line of succession. Furthermore, Ned could have known and made safer choices, as evidenced by the fact that Stannis knew and didn't immediately confront Cersei about it. This is a crucial bit of information, but simply knowing it was not what killed Ned Stark.
Catelyn taking Tyrion prisoner
Tyrion's imprisonment is the moment when the Cold War between the Starks and Lannisters became red-hot. It's what caused Jaime to attack Ned and kill his men. It's also what caused Tywin to besiege the Riverlands. This is the spark that started true, deadly conflict. But did it have to mean Ned's death?
Despite being such a pivitol moment, I don't think so. First, this was Catelyn's action, not Ned's. Had he not covered for her, there might have been a way to broker peace with the Lannisters. Even if he couldn't, Tyion was a bargaining chip. Catelyn knew this, but she was unable to use him appropriately after Lysa accepted his request for a trial (and then a trial by combat). After Tyrion's proxy Bronn won that fight, they had to release him.
There were other choices that could have been made after Tyrion's capture that could have saved Ned. They would have greatly shamed Catelyn, but they existed. But Ned's protection of her resulted in his injuries and the loss of his men. Arguably, the resulting conflict between Cersei and Ned caused Robert to go on a hunt, which is when he took the wound that killed him. It's a major step on the path to Ned's execution, but there were still many ways to get off.
Refusing to kill Daenerys
Through all of the conflict, Ned was always safe because he was Robert's best friend and the Hand of the King. But that security was weakened when Ned fought Robert over Daenerys Targaryen. Because Ned would not be part of a plot to assassinate this potential rival for the Iron Throne, he gave up his position as the Hand and Robert threatened to kill him. Although Robert would get over the fight, it destabilized Ned's standing at court.
This gave Jaime Lannister the opening to attack Ned, because he was not currently the Hand of the King. It was also a sign of disloyalty that the entire court (and Joffrey in particular) could use as evidence that the later claims of treason were valid. But none of that would have mattered if Ned had just left King's Landing. Leaving the capital was undoubtedly the right move at this point, but Littlefinger kept Ned in the city investigating Robert's bastards, which meant he was still around to be targeted by Jaime.
Even that could have been overcome by Robert's forgiveness, but then Ned advocated for the execution of the Gregor "the Mountain" Clegane, then harrowing the Riverlands on the orders of Tywin Lannister following Tyrion's capture, and demanded that Tywin come to court or be considered a traitor. Ned didn't get to safety and provoked the Lannisters further. This is perhaps the best chance he had to leave and be safe, and instead Ned took every opportunity to make his situation worse.
Confronting Cersei with his knowledge
All of the events above mean that conflict between the Starks and the Lannisters was inevitable. But Ned's death was not. There were so many moments when he or others in his family could have made different choices to change his fate. Had Ned just taken his daughters and left the capital, Tywin probably would have kept his daughter and grandson from pursuing him.
That was Ned's plan, and it was the best one he could have made at that point. But then Ned figured out the truth about Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella — that they were all products of an incestuous affair between Queen Cersei and her twin brother Jaime — and he made his worst mistake. He told Cersei what he knew and insisted that nothing she could do would keep him from revealing the truth. It's this moment where his fate was truly sealed.
We can't know for sure if Cersei had already put her plan to kill her husband King Robert into action, but if not, Ned's bluntness was why she did it then. That meant that Robert couldn't protect Ned, and the new King Joffrey would be under his mother Cersei's control. Or so she thought, but Joffrey was never going to be controllable. He saw an opportunity to kill Ned and he took it.
It's worth asking if any later decisions could have changed this fate, but I can't see one that really would. Ned could have accepted Renly's support, but that would have only won him another hundred men. That might have been enough to make for a less crushing defeat, but it still would have meant defeat once the gold cloaks turned. According to the show, Cersei had a dozen knights and a hundred soldiers. With Renly, Ned would've had roughly the same support. But the City Watch was "2,000 strong," so the only difference would be that more men would die and Renly would be arrested too.
Ned could have accepted Littlefinger's plan and made peace with the Lannisters and raise Joffrey to be better. But that's something Ned would never do, and it's hard to imagine that it was ever a real offer from Littlefinger anyway. Ned staying on as Protector of the Realm hardly seems to fit into Littlefinger's other plans, so it's likely that he would have betrayed Ned later.
No matter how I think about it, I can't see a world where Ned doesn't end up imprisoned for treason once he tells Cersei that he was going to reveal her secret. From there, we might question how Sansa, Robb, and Ned's actions might have influenced things, but it seems clear that they only ever had the potential to sway Cersei. Joffrey had the power and the excuse to kill Ned, and nothing was going to stop him from doing it.
To be completely thorough, there were probably thousands of little moments that built up to Ned's execution. What if Ned had left Winterfell earlier and built a relationship with Joffrey and his siblings? What if Catelyn hadn't encouraged him to trust Littlefinger? There are also huge changes that might have saved Ned, but they seem a bit too broad. What if Jaime had never killed the Mad King? What if a different mix of Stark children had come to King's Landing?
The point of our investigation here was to see when Ned was doomed. The series is heavily based on actions having consequences, so which actions were the most consequential? At what point was there no turning back? We examined seven other moments that might have changed things, but the only one that feels like it truly would have altered things was the last.
When Ned decided to confront Cersei about what he knew, he sealed his fate. He told her what he knew, told her that he was going to use it against her, told her that there was nothing she could do, and then let her go. There was no turning back from that, making the episode "You Win or You Die" the last point where Ned could have acted differently if he didn't want to lose his head.
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