Ormund Hightower gives Daeron Targaryen an important history lesson about the Yellow Toad of Dorne in House of the Dragon season 3 episode 5.
In the episode, Ormund (James Norton) learns from his little birds in King's Landing that his plan to cause general unrest in the city by assaulting the City Watch is going quite well. Then, he asks Daeron (Benjamin Evan Ainsworth) for a brief summary of his studies for the day. Ormund listens, and then, when it's his time to tell a story, he spins up quite the tale about Meria Martell, also known as the Yellow Toad of Dorne.
For those who don't know, Meria Martell was the ruler of Dorne way back when Aegon the Conquerer invaded Westeros from Essos.
According to George R.R. Martin's Fire & Blood, Meria was 80 years old when Aegon ventured across the Narrow Sea to conquer Westeros. While other Houses and Kings allied or fought against Aegon and the Targaryens directly, Meria did neither, basically. She abandoned Sunspear, the capital of Dorne, with her men and would not fight in the open.
Why do they call her the Yellow Toad? Well, as Ormund describes, it's because of her appearance. In her old age, her beauty faded, and she shared some resemblance to a toad, according to the text.
So, in Aegon's Conquest, Rhaenys Targaryen, Aegon's wife, led a force to Dorne, but Meria would not surrender or cooperate. She would continue to attack the Targaryens until they either killed everyone in Dorne or left. Rhaenys realized that without surrender and cooperation, the Targaryens could not hold Dorne while other conflicts remained, so they ended up leaving with a promise to return to Dorne one day after the rest of Westeros had fallen under Aegon's control.
All is well for a time. Then, a few years later, the First Dornish War breaks out, and the Targaryens return to Dorne to take over as they tried to do a few years earlier. This time, Meria has an even better plan. Meria goes back to what worked the first time. She hatches a plan to abandon the city and lie in wait. Eventually, the Dornish rise up from the desert and drive the occupying forces of the Targaryens, Tyrells, and Rosbys from Dorne.
Ormund describes this strategy to Daeron in season 3 episode 5. He makes a point of mentioning that Meria and the Dornish army didn't meet the Targaryen forces in open battle. Instead, they retreated and surrendered their castles and ground to the Targaryens until their foes grew comfortable and sent back some of their garrison home. When that happened, the Dornish army came out of hiding, entered the castles and cities, and slaughtered their invaders.
It took a long time, but eventually, Meria and the Dornish won back their lands and homes. Meria died about seven years later.
Despite Ormund's less-than-polite description of Meria's appearance, he has a lot of praise for her strategic acumen. While it might seem like Ormund was simply sharing a story about who Meria Martell was for fun, it has huge ramifications for Ormund's plan for Daeron, Rhaenyra, King's Landing, and the realm.
Why Ormund's story about Meria Martell matters in House of the Dragon season 3
With his dragons and massive army, Aegon conquered the continent, but he struggled to take Dorne. Ormund offered a brief explanation about why that was. In doing so, Ormund basically revealed his grand plan, and he's using history to be his guide with his strategy.
To me, Ormund is basically using Meria's logic and applying it to the situation at hand. The Targaryens, specifically Rhaenyra (Emma D'Arcy) and the Blacks, have the brute force and the best weapon of the war, their dragons. With resolve, those dragons and their riders can be beaten by sure will and strategy.
Sure, Rhaenyra has King's Landing in the same way that the Targaryens seized Sunspear during the First Dornish War. The Greens, and those loyal to them, have allowed Rhaenyra to take the Red Keep and city because they know they would lose in open war, but they're not going down without a fight. They're playing the long game, slowly ramping up the attacks and allowing the people to turn on Rhaenyra.
It's clear that Ormund is using this strategy in some form or fashion. Meria Martell of Dorne is likely not the first and was surely not the last in history to deploy something like this, but Ormund is definitely adapting from it. He knows Rhaenyra will not use her dragons to burn the entire city of Tumbleton. Eventually, he won't be able to turn and run and hide like Meria.
But, Ormund's plan isn't just a mirror of Meria's plan to save Dorne. He's not fleeing into the deserts of Dorne and allowing Rhaenyra to gain a stronghold. He's poisoning the city from afar, watching the people do his work by turning them against Rhaenyra. He just has to hold out long enough for public opinion to shift and some other balls to drop before he, like Meria and the Dornish, emerge again ready to fight.
I don't know if it's going to work out the way Ormund wishes, but it's not the worst plan we've seen in the history of the Game of Thrones universe.
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