Valar Morghulis: Who’s most likely to die in “Oathbreaker?”
By Corey Smith
Valar morghulis: All men (and women) must die. But when?
Welcome to a new weekly column where we rank who is most likely to die in the coming episode of Game of Thrones. Today, “Oathbreaker” is on deck.
The way this season is going, it looks likely that at least one character will die in each episode. There are a lot of characters on this show, and we’ve organized them into groups of ten according to how surprised we’d be if they died, and given each of them odds on dying.
So who sits atop the coveted Valar Morghulis rankings this week? Grab some bread and salt, and read on. Be aware: spoilers abound from the previous week, but if you haven’t seen last week’s episode, what are you doing here, anyway?
****Percentages are for the death of the character, not their survival.****
1-10. Jory-Cassel-picking-fight-with-Jaime-Lannister surprised
You had, like, three scenes in Season 1. Why did you pick a fight with the Kingslayer? These are the characters we think most likely to die this week. We hope they all have their affairs in order.
1. Ser Alliser Thorne: 95%. Last week, Ser Alliser’s murder/mutiny was put down in spectacular fashion by Tormund Giantsbane, Wun Wun, and the rest of the wildlings, and Ser Alliser was hauled off in chains. With Jon Snow’s revival, we don’t see Ser Alliser surviving much longer.
2. Kevan Lannister: 90%. Call this one a hunch, but seeing as there was a picture of Kevan in the official images HBO released from “Oathbreaker,” we’re calling Kevan Lannister a goner. There have been a lot of one-and-done appearances so far this season, and the eldest Lannister could be next.
3. Olly: 89%. We can see Olly buying it for the same reason Ser Alliser does, but the only reason we don’t rank him above Kevan Lannister is that Jon Snow wouldn’t kill a kid. Would he?
4. Maester Pycelle: 85%. If Ser Kevan meets whatever gods the Lannisters worship, our money is on Small Council-mate Pycelle not being far behind.
5. Rickon Stark: 75%. Rickon finally returning after two seasons only to get put in the ground? That’s cruel even by Game of Thrones standards, but it could happen. Based off the trailer for “Oathbreaker,” we know Ramsay Bolton will be receiving a gift, and what better gift than the youngest Stark child?
6. Osha: 75%. The last we saw the wilding Osha, she was protecting Rickon Stark by ferrying him to House Umber’s stronghold. If Rickon Stark does indeed meet the Old Gods this week, Osha will presumably be joining him.
7. Jorah Mormont: 50%. The guy has Greyscale, so he’s not likely to leave the top ten all season. Unless of course he leaves the top ten.
8. Melisandre: 45%. Hear us out on this one. The Red Woman has now served her main narrative purpose, so what else is there for her to do? Also, has Ser Davos found exactly how Shireen met her doom?
9. Loras Tyrell: 40%. Where exactly is the heir to Highgarden? Ser Loras hasn’t been seen in quite some time. Do we even know if he’s still around? We do know that Finn Jones was recently cast as the lead in Marvel’s Iron Fist. Things that make you go hmmm.
10. Khal Moro: 40%. The biggest and baddest khal around recently took our favorite dragon mother captive. Last time someone threatened Danerys, Drogon lit them on fire. So yeah.
11-20. Wun-Wun-smashing-that-dude-into-the-wall surprised
When you shoot a giant with a crossbow, what do you think is going to happen? We wouldn’t be surprised if any of these people kick it soon.
11. Lancel Lannister: 35%. You can’t be the star witness against Cersei Lannister and expect to live long. Also, he threatened the Mountain in the trailer. It doesn’t seem like he’s going to live a long and fruitful life, does it?
12. Yara Greyjoy: 30%. She’s pretty much the only Greyjoy we love, but when your crazy uncle shows up and throws your dad off a bridge, it might be time to get out of town. Or in this case, the Iron Islands.
13. The Waif: 30%. We all assume that Arya will eventually get fed up with the Faceless Men in general, and her tormentor the Waif in particular. When she does, Needle will most likely be making an appearance.
14. Daario Naharis: 30%. – Pursuing a Dothraki horde with just a single companion sounds rather dangerous, no?
15. Mace Tyrell: 30%. We wonder if the dim-witted Mace Tyrell will notice his Kingsguard, Maryn Trant, was murdered in Braavos, but we are guessing probably not. Either way, with both his children held captive by the Faith Militant, Lord Mace doing something foolhardy doesn’t seem out of the question.
16. Theon Greyjoy: 25%. Theon looks to be headed home, but he might not like the reception he gets when he arrives. Uncle Euron probably won’t like another heir to the Salt Throne. (By the way, that’s the lamest name for a throne ever.)
17. Olenna Tyrell: 20%. How many more magically quick trips can she make between Highgarden and King’s Landing? The Queen of Thorns is a fan favorite, but she is fairly old. And she lives in Westeros.
18. Grey Worm: 20%. Patrolling the mean streets of Meereen can often prove fatal; just ask Ser Barristan.
19. The High Sparrow: 20%. We expect the High Sparrow to stick around for a while, tormenting the high and mighty. But who knows when someone might stick a sword in his belly?
20. Margery Tyrell: 15%. As a captive of those crazy Sparrows, Margaery isn’t in the best place right now. However, if she goes, look for a lot of other characters to go down swinging too. Looking at you Tommen.
21-30. Ned-Stark-getting-his-head-chopped-off surprised.
Everyone thought Ned Stark was the main character, right? If these characters died this week, we’d raise an eyebrow.
21. Euron Greyjoy: 15%. You can’t die one episode after being introduced, can you?
22. Qyburn: 15%. Creepy ex-maester Qyburn raised the Mountain from the dead to watch Cersei’s back, but now what has he got to do?
23. Bronn: 15%. On one of these dangerous missions, Bronn’s luck has to finally run out. (If he ever shows up this season.)
24. Hodor: Hodor%. Hodor.
25. Meera Reed: 10%. Meera didn’t exactly look like a woman with a purpose the last time we saw her squatting in the snow. How long until she does something rash?
26. Jaqen H’ghar: 10%. Jaqen spends his days and nights as an assassin. One time he’s gonna try to wrong person. This week perhaps?
27. Dolorous Edd: 10%. The is a war coming to the Wall. So anyone hanging around there might not have the longest life expectancy.
28. Missandei: 10%. Meereen can go any direction this season, but we think Missandei should be safe. For now.
29. Petyr Baelish: 10%. Eventually some of those plots and schemes have to catch up with Littlefinger, right? He did look awfully worried in the trailer. Also, Baelish dropped Sansa off with the most psychotic person in the Seven Kingdoms. She might not be that happy with Littlefinger. 10%
30. Tommen Baratheon: 10%. Not quite the shocker that Joffrey was, but we’d be surprised if he makes it through the season.
31-40. Tywin-Lannister-sitting-on-the-toilet surprised.
It would be a major shock if anyone in this group died at this point in the story.
31. Jaime Lannister: 5%. Ser Jaime looks likely to survive the series if you ask us, unless he keeps wandering around the Sept of Baelor by himself. Seriously, if you are a Lannister, how are you not walking around with at least a hundred men everywhere you go?
32. Cersei Lannister: 5%. Cersei, on the other hand, seems like she could go at any moment, what with her pile of enemies and deteriorating mental state. We just don’t think it will be this episode.
33. Jon Snow: 5%. Who’s to say the Lord Commander won’t die again and again? Depends on how long Melisandre sticks around.
34. Tormund Gianstbane: 5%. Whoever takes down Giantsbane, it will be an epic struggle. Not today, though.
35. Varys: 5%. Meereen does seem like a rather dangerous place to call home, but Lord Varys should be safe this week.
36. Wun Wun: 5%. Someone killing Wun Wun the giant? We don’t buy it in this episode.
37. Davos Seaworth: 5%. From the looks of all the trailers, Ser Davos has a lot to do this season beyond arranging Jon’s resurrection.
38. Bran Stark: 5%. Bran has a lot of important things to do this season, not the least of which is interacting with some White Walkers. He’ll stick around.
39. Brienne of Tarth: 5%. If Podrick is safe, we say the same for the Maid of Tarth. Plus, she has a Valyrian steel sword. So safe we say.
40. Podrick Payne: 5%. Poor little Podrick looked like a halfway decent fighter in the season opener, even if he still can’t make a fire. Either way, Pod is safe as can be this week.
41-50. Red-Wedding surprised
We would stake our life that these characters making it through this week.
41. Sansa Stark: 4%. Some of these are too easy. Sansa was heavily featured in the trailers, so we know she has a few more things to do. This early in the season? No. Later in the season? Mayhaps.
42. Arya Stark: 3%. Arya kicking the bucket the same week she gets invited back into the House of Black and White? Yeah, no.
43. Samwell Tarly: 2%. Who would want to hurt Samwell Tarly?
44. Gilly (And little Sam): 2%. Yes, they kill mothers and their babies on Game of Thrones, thanks to the next person on this list, but we still say Gilly is safe this week.
45. Ramsay Bolton: 1%. We wish we could put him higher on the list, trust us.
46. Tyrion Lannister: 1%. He’s the main character, right? So how could he die? (Yes we know Jon Snow died, but it didn’t stick.)
47. Danerys Targaryen: 1%. If you had a giant fire breathing dragon for a buddy, we’d put you last on the list as well.