Valar Morghulis: Who’s most likely to die in “The Door?”

Valar morghulis: All men (and women) must die. But when?

Welcome to our weekly column where we rank who is most likely to die in the coming episode of Game of Thrones. After the first couple episodes were rather busy mortality-wise, “Book of the Stranger” and “Oathbreaker” were fairly mild. Let’s see if we picked any correctly!

“Osha: 90%  Being delivered into the hands of the biggest psychopath in Westeros is going to put you at the top of this list more often than not. Rickon Stark has value, but the fierce wildling seems expendable. Sorry, Osha.”

Osha started out as just another wildling before becoming fiercely loyal to the Starks, particularly Bran and Rickon. From the moment she was delivered into Ramsay Bolton’s chambers, you knew she was a goner. Ramsay for all his faults, is no fool like Theon, and wasn’t likely to fall for Osha’s seduction. Sorry Osha, but thanks for watching over the Stark boys when no one else would. Read our more detailed Curtain Call here.

“Khal Moro: 60%. Moro hasn’t strayed into villain territory yet, but we are all just holding our breathe until Drogon wakes up from his nap. And when he does, no one will be safe.”

Not gonna lie, I kinda feel like Stephan Curry at this point. Not only did Moro get burned to a crisp like anything I try to cook, he even made the villain turn necessary to justify his murder at the hands of Daenerys. It was a pleasant surprise to have Dany do the deed herself, rather than have Drogon swoop down out of the sky. It did feel like the situation escalated rather quickly—did Dany even unpack before she burnt the place down? Read our more detailed Curtain Call here.

Honorable Mention: Aggo, the Dothraki bloodrider. He successfully dodged a fistful of sand to the face, but not a dagger in the back.

Our gut feeling is that this week’s episode, “The Door,”will be fairly light on the death front. Let’s dive into our rankings!

****Percentages refer to how likely the character is to die, not survive.****

1-10. Jory-Cassel-picking-fight-with-Jaime-Lannister surprised

You had, like, three scenes in Season 1. Why did you pick a fight with the Kingslayer? These are the characters we think most likely to die this week. We hope they all have their affairs in order. 

1. Maester Pycelle: 90%. You can’t continue to annoy Cersei and expect to live a long life, especially with FrankenMountain lumbering around. Might wanna back down a notch there, Pycelle. Pycelle jumps up a few spots since it appears Ser Kevan has bought himself at least another week with his alliance with the terrible twins.

2. Kevan Lannister: 85%. Ser Kevan seems to have appeased the Lannister twins by agreeing to help them save Margaery, but somehow we doubt this newfound alliance lasts long. Cersei wants power. Kevan has it. Sorry, Kevan.

3. Jorah Mormont: 75%. Oh Ser Jorah, that greyscale isn’t looking too good. We are pulling for you though, Lord Friendzone.

4. Loras Tyrell: 60%. We still maintain that Ser Loras will not long survive his captivity by the Faith Militant, and last week only seemed to serve as confirmation of this thought. Loras looked and talked like a broken man, which can’t be good. Finn Jones certainly looks good playing Iron Fist though.

5. Rickon Stark: 60%. As long as Rickon remains a captive of Ramsay Bolton, the youngest Stark will have to sadly remain in our top five. Just don’t flay him, Ramsay. Pretty please.

6.  The High Sparrow: 50%. The type of exposition Jonathan Pryce laid out last week, is exactly the type of speech one gives right before getting a sword to the belly in Westeros. Plus we know the Lannister/Tyrell super team is going to march into the Sept this week, so everyone hold your breathe.

7. Lancel Lannister: 50%. As with the High Sparrow and Maester Pycelle, you can only harass, annoy, or mess with Cersei for so long before FrankenMountain pays you a visit. They keep mentioning Cersei’s upcoming trial on the show, and who is the star witness? One Lancel Lannister.

8. Melisandre: 50%. As we said last week, if anyone feels the need to take out Jon Snow, eliminating Melisandre is a must. Another reason Mel may not stick around? Brienne of Tarth has clearly not forgotten who birthed the shadow demon that killed Renly. That’s not even mentioning what happens if Davos finds out what happened to Shireen.

9. Grey Worm: 45% Call this one a hunch, but I don’t think the Sons of the Harpy are as easily placated as Tyrion believes. They’re going to target someone, and we think it might be Grey Worm. Or the next person on the list…

10. Missandei: 45% Missandei is also a target if those sneaky slaver dudes prove to be as untrustworthy as she believes them to be. Time will tell.

11-20. Wun-Wun-smashing-that-dude-into-the-wall surprised

When you shoot a giant with a crossbow, what do you think is going to happen? We wouldn’t be surprised if any of these people kick it soon.

11. Mace Tyrell: 45%. Call us crazy, but if the Lannisters and Tyrells try to take down the High Sparrow, expect some highborn casualties. And when Mace does bow out, I think most viewers will react with a yawn.

12. Yara Greyjoy: 40% Despite a rather strong scene last week, we still believe that Euron’s arrival in the Iron Islands spells doom for Balon’s two living children. We hope to be wrong!

13. Theon Greyjoy: 40%. The same logic applies here, though it might be possible for one or the other to survive.

14. Yohn Royce: 40% We don’t really think Royce will make his return only to die one episode later, but it’s possible, especially with that crazy Robin Arryn kid in charge.

15. High Priestess: 40% This is the High Priestess of the Dosh Khaleen. It wouldn’t be surprising to see her end up a snack for Drogon now that Dany is apparently not wasting any time with people that annoy her.

16. Three Eyed Raven: 35% It may not be this episode, but the Three Eyed Raven is likely not long for this world. How many TV shows or movies have you seen where the mentor retires quietly to the country while the student takes on the great evil? Think Luke/Yoda/Obi-Wan, Harry Potter/Dumbledore, or Spider-Man/Uncle Ben.

17. Meera: 30% In the teaser trailer for “The Door” is any indication, things aren’t going too well for everyone in that cave, and Meera hasn’t struck us as having the strongest will to live lately.

18. Septa Unella: 25% If this is the week the Lannister/Tyrells finally clean house at the Sept of Baelor, Unella is a goner.

19. The Waif: 20%. We know things are looking hunky-doory for Arya and the Faceless Men, but we doubt that it lasts. Arya is too much of a wild wolf (excuse the pun) to last long in such a rigorously structured sect. When she goes rogue, the Waif would likely be the first casualty.

20. Margaery Tyrell: 20%. Attempting to force your way into the Sept of Baelor hardly seems like a solid plan, but that’s the plan the Lannisters and Tyrells are going with. It could put Margaery in danger.

21-30. Tywin-Lannister-sitting-on-the-toilet surprised.

It was surprising, but the way he treated his family had to come back and bite him sooner or later. If these characters died this week, we’d raise an eyebrow.

21. Olenna Tyrell: 20%. We have to expect some sort of retaliation from the Faith Militant if there is a blood bath at the Sept of Baelor, don’t we? The High Sparrow is surely aware of who has the brains in the Tyrell family.

22.  Dolorous Edd: 20%. Edd appears likely to be the next Lord Commander of the Night’s Watch, and as unlikely as that seems, that means Edd will provide the fist line of defense when the White Walkers show up.

23. Those Slaver Guys: 20% (Belicho Paenymion, Yezzan zo Qaqqaz, Razdak mo Eraz): 15% We believe Grey Worm and Missandei over Tyrion in this case, and these guys are therefore going to try something stupid that will ultimately lead to all three becoming dragon barbecue.

24. Jaqen H’ghar: 15%. Maybe Jaqen should be higher on the list, because who knows if he actually even can die? Or if he has before? Or if he’s the Waif? Or Benjen Stark? Our head hurts.

25. Bronn: 15% At this point, we aren’t even sure Bronn is alive. Or maybe he moved to Dorne for a reason most of you could guess. After all, aren’t the Sand Snakes in charge down there?

26. Jon Snow: 10%. Jon looks like he will be heading off to war with Ramsay Bolton sometime soon, which seems more than slightly dangerous.

27. Tommen Baratheon: 10%. Looks like little Tommen has been talking to the High Sparrow behind mommy’s back. That hardly seems safe.

28. Qyburn: 10%. Qyburn is working behind the scenes for the moment. He should be safe.

29. Petyr Baelish: 10%. It looks like Littlefinger will appear up north this week. Sansa may be miffed to see him, but we don’t see him dying quite yet.

30. Bran Stark: 9%. Bran takes a huge jump in the rankings because the cave he’s living in doesn’t seem to be as safe as we thought it was. Sure it repelled wights, but what happens when the Night’s King shows up?

31-40. Ned-Stark-getting-his-head-chopped-off surprised.

Everyone thought Ned Stark was the main character, right? It would be a major shock if anyone in this group died at this point in the story.

31. Jaime Lannister: 5%. The alliance with the Tyrells is off and running, and Jaime appears to be headed for a confrontation with the High Sparrow over Margaery’s release. Slightly dangerous.

32. Cersei Lannister: 5%. Yeah, other than Drogon, we are naming FrankenMountain as the best bodyguard on the series. A WHOLE LOT of people would have to die in the process of trying to take down FrankenMountain before they’d even get to Cersei. Safe for now.

33. Tormund Gianstbane: 5%. If the producers kill Tormund one week after he found true love, I’m seriously done with this show.

34. Wun Wun: 5%. Sure, as a giant, it can be hard to see things at your feet, but we don’t think this is the week Wun Wun trips and falls over something.

35. Davos Seaworth: 5%. Ser Davos looks like a lock to hang around a couple more episodes, but if he ever decides to take out the Red Woman, he may not survive the attempt.

36. Hodor: Hodor% Hodor.

37. Ornela: 5% Ornela is the young khaleesi Daenerys bonded with last week before burning down all those jack wagons in the hut. We say Dany has a new gal pal to talk about what shoes to wear on her dates with Daario.

38. Daario Naharis: 5% Daario survived the worst planned rescue mission we’ve seen since Jaime and Bronn winged it into the water gardens of Dorne. Now that that’s over, we should all feel safe to bask in the glory of his flowing locks.

39.  Sansa Stark: 4%. Sansa is gathering protectors—this week it was her brother Jon Snow. So we say Lady Stark is safe this week to carry on with her plan to retake Winterfell.

40. Samwell Tarly: 2%. Unless that ship has sunk, we say Samwell is safe to have the most awkward family reunion ever.

41-50. Red-Wedding surprised

We would stake our life that these characters making it through this week.

41. Euron Greyjoy: 2% It seems clear that Euron will play a major part in the next episode, as it’s election time in the Iron Islands! We are counting on Euron to move forward with whatever mad plans he has bouncing around his head.

42. Varys: 2% Varys might be in slight danger from that new red priestess we saw in the preview, but we think it will take a lot to surprise the eunuch.

43. Brienne of Tarth: 2% The Maid of Tarth seems to have finally found her purpose in life, and we don’t see her going anywhere anytime soon.

44. Podrick Payne: 2% Young Podrick, the greatest lover in the Seven Kingdoms, is safe as long as Brienne is. Their fates are intertwined.

45. Gilly (And little Sam): 2%. Is this the week we get to see Gilly meet Sam’s parents? If so, things should be fairly calm down at Horn Hill. (At least so far as death is concerned. There should be plenty of drama.)

46. Ramsay Bolton: 1%. Ramsay continues his mad rampage. The good news is, Ramsay is one of the main reasons we have this column. The bad news? He won’t be crossed off the list this week.

47. Tyrion Lannister: 1%. Tyrion actually did some good this past week, trying to make peace with the slavers, but he might have gained a few new enemies in the process. Either way, the littlest Lannister is safe this week.

48. Daenerys Targaryen: 1%. So apparently Daenerys is immune to fire, something that stirred a bit of a debate among book readers. Either way, Dany is safe this week, as she begins to assemble her Dothraki horde.

49. Arya Stark: 1%. Arya sat last week out, but will return in “The Door.” Arya still has a few names on her list, so she isn’t going anywhere.