Valar Morghulis: Who’s most likely to die in “The Broken Man?”

Valar morghulis: All men (and women) must die. But when?

Welcome to a weekly column where we rank who is most likely to die in each coming episode of Game of Thrones Season 6. This past week’s episode, “Blood of My Blood” was completely bereft of deaths, so none of our predictions were correct. For our punishment, we were required to take a walk of shame through the town square. (Not sure who that was a punishment for, though.)

Unless you are the Three-Eyed Raven, look away. Spoilers follow below.

Honorable Mention: The wights? Seriously, no one died this episode. “Blood of My Blood” makes us question the point of our existence.

****Percentages refer to how likely the character is to die, not survive.****

1-10. Jory-Cassel-picking-fight-with-Jaime-Lannister surprised

You had, like, three scenes in Season 1. Why did you pick a fight with the Kingslayer? These are the characters we think most likely to die this week. We hope they all have their affairs in order. 

1. The Waif: 95%. Another week, another new number one. Look, we know the Waif has been kicking Arya’s behind all over Braavos for the past season and a half, but now that Arya has officially become a target, we think it will be a different story. Arya remains a fan favorite (and a favorite of George R.R. Martin’s wife), and thus our money is on Arya and Needle winning the coming fight. Was nice knowing you, Waif.

2. Lady Crane: 80%. Lady Crane dodged a bullet last week, but surely she is still a target of the Faceless Men?  

3. Loras Tyrell: 75%. So Margaery got sprung from the slammer last week, but where is Ser Loras? Even Margaery cryptically implied that Loras would need to atone for his sins. Things continue to look dismal for the Knight of Flowers.

4. Melisandre: 75%. It might be a unpopular call among my fellow Small Council members, but I still hold that the Red Woman will eventually pay for her crimes. Melisandre has no lack of enemies, either. Brienne may have departed for the Riverlands, but it’s only a matter of time until Ser Davos figures out what happened to Shireen.

5. Septa Unella: 70%. From the looks of the preview pictures for “The Broken Man”, Septa Unella now appears to be Margaery’s parole officer. Away from the Sept of Baelor, we’re not sure how long the septa will last.

6. Jaqen H’ghar: 50%.  Jaqen rockets up the rankings based off of his approval of the hit on Arya. If Arya does defeat the Waif as we predict, might Jaqen become involved?

7. Lancel Lannister: 50%. Lancel made his first appearance of the season last week, and has yet to confront Cersei and the FrankenMountain as we saw in the Season 6 trailer. Might that scene come in “The Broken Man?”

8. Edmure Tully: 50%. Edmure made his first appearance onscreen since his (Red) wedding night back in Season 3. He’s being taken to Riverrun as a captive, to be used as leverage against his uncle, Brynden “the Blackfish” Tully.

9. Pycelle: 45%. Pycelle has taken the last few episodes off, but it’s only a matter of time before Cersei has the FrankenMountain clean house.

10. Kevan Lannister: 45%. Ser Kevan stood sneering as Jaime was dismissed from the Kingsguard last week, and that doesn’t seem like the sort of thing the wonder twins will forget anytime soon.

11-20. Wun-Wun-smashing-that-dude-into-the-wall surprised

When you shoot a giant with a crossbow, what do you think is going to happen? We wouldn’t be surprised if any of these people kick it soon.

11. Mace Tyrell: 35%. Mace was given his longest bit of dialogue in a while last week, and yet it fell on the deaf ears of his troops. Mace is such a non-factor that we expect audience reaction to match that of his soldiers when he meets his maker.

12. Rickon Stark: 35%. It would be nice to catch up with Rickon before he inevitably meets some sort of tragic fate at the hands of Ramsay Bolton, but thus far we have only seen one brief glimpse of the youngest Stark.

13. Olenna Tyrell: 30%. If last week’s ill-fated confrontation hammered anything home, it was that Olenna is the brains behind House Tyrell. Ultimately that makes her a threat, and this is Game of Thrones; even little old ladies aren’t safe.

14. Grey Worm: 30%. Meereen and everyone in it took a week off for “Blood of My Blood,” but expect them back this week. The peace forged by Tyrion can’t last forever, and Grey Worm is on the front lines of that fight.

15. Missandei: 30%. Missandei remains in Meereen, even if we didn’t see it last week, and thus remains a target of those wily slaver guys, who surely aren’t actually considering giving up slavery.

16. Margaery Tyrell: 25%. Look, it seems fairly apparent that Margaery is trying to play the High Sparrow, but we have yet to see the High Sparrow actually get played. So we think Marge is still in quite a bit of danger, despite her new found “freedom.”

17. Samwell Tarly: 25%. Randyll Tarly hardly seems like the type of guy to just forgive someone for stealing his family’s most previous heirloom, even if that person is his own son. Sam makes the biggest jump of any character this week, for those keeping track.

18. Gilly (And little Sam): 25%. Even if Gilly wasn’t a party of the theft of Heartsbane, she is a wildling, and Randyll Tarly is an avowed wildling hater.

19. Those Slaver Guys: 25%. (Belicho Paenymion, Yezzan zo Qaqqaz, Razdak mo Eraz): 30% We assume those slaver guys will show their true colors shortly before Dany returns to Meereen with that giant Dothraki horde. And that giant dragon.

20. The High Sparrow: 25%. Mr. High Sparrow dodged a bullet last week by expertly playing the crowd when confronted by Jaime and the Tyrell army. Adding Tommen as a follower is certainly a bonus, and yet the High Sparrow continues to play with fire, so it’s only a matter of time until he gets burned.

21-30. Tywin-Lannister-sitting-on-the-toilet surprised.

It was surprising, but the way he treated his family had to come back and bite him sooner or later. If these characters died this week, we’d raise an eyebrow.

21. Arya Stark: 25%. Yes, we’re picking Arya to win her looming showdown with the Waif, but we aren’t always right, are we? (Don’t answer that.)

22.  Dolorous Edd: 25%. Poor Edd. He finally makes it to the top of his profession, but at the worse time possible—right before the expected White Walker invasion. Until those guys are taken care of, Edd remains in more danger than most.

23. Petyr Baelish: 25%. Are we even going to see Littlefinger this week? We think not, as Baelish was told to bugger off by Sansa a couple weeks back. When was the last time Littlefinger did as he was told, though?

24. Bran Stark: 20%. Bran appears to be safe for now, as his dead Uncle Benjen has returned. Bran has a new protector, and this one has a flaming ball of fire on a chain. Not sure how else to describe it.

25. Meera Reed: 15%. Meera looks safe alongside Benjen and Bran, but she also serves very little purpose now that Bran has an undead flame whip-wielding uncle around.

26. Jon Snow: 15%. Jon appears safe in “The Broken Man,” as the showdown with Ramsay Bolton likely won’t happen until Episode 9, aptly titled “The Battle of the Bastards.”

27. Tommen Baratheon: 15%. King Tommen the Blessed? Who saw that one coming? Still, how long can little Tommen survive among the vicious power players that are pulling at him like warm bread?

28. Davos Seaworth: 15%. We fully believe that Ser Davos will take a shot at Melisandre shortly after deducing the truth about Shireen’s death. Sadly, the Onion Knight may not survive the attempt on Melisandre’s life.

29. Jorah Mormont: 10%. Have we seen the last of Ser Jorah this season? Quite possibly. That would ordinarily mean a character was safe, but Jorah still had Greyscale the last time we checked.

30. Walder Frey: 10%. This season has been all about the return of long-lost characters, and despite Walder Frey’s history, we missed the old curmudgeon. That being said, we have a feeling old man Frey does not make it out of the season alive.

31-40. Ned-Stark-getting-his-head-chopped-off surprised.

Everyone thought Ned Stark was the main character, right? It would be a major shock if anyone in this group died at this point in the story.

31. Jaime Lannister: 5%. Jaime is off to the Riverlands after being thoroughly outplayed by the High Sparrow last week. Will Ser Jaime have better luck with Brynden Tully? We think not, but it doesn’t seem likely this will be where Ser Jaime meets the gods.

32. Cersei Lannister: 5%. Judging from this week’s teaser, the High Sparrow looks to have broken the short lived Lannister/Tyrell alliance. This looks like bad news for Cersei, but again, it’s not likely to lead to her death.

33. Tormund Gianstbane: 5%. Tormund looks like he’s rallying the troops for a march south to Winterfell, and is thus safe for this week.

34. Wun Wun: 5%. Wun Wun isn’t likely to be running around  the North on the recruiting mission alongside Sansa and Jon, so the giant looks safe for now.

35. Benjen Stark: 5%. The good news? Benjen made his triumphant return after almost six seasons, the longest absence of the series. The bad news? Benjen looks to be some sort of undead wight. But we doubt that Benjen would come back just to die again so quickly, so we say he’s safe for at least one more episode.

36. Yara Greyjoy: 5%. The Greyjoy siblings look to be sailing for Meereen—they’re in Volantis in the teaser trailer—so we say they’re safe at least until they arrive.

37. Theon Grejoy: 5%. Theon looks safe by his sister’s side, but all bets are off when they arrive in Meereen. We don’t think Dany will be leaving peacefully, and that means casualties.

38. Daario Naharis: 5%. Dany looks to have quite a few battles ahead of her, but her boy toy looks safe for now.

39.  Sansa Stark: 4%. Although the teaser for next week attempts to imply that Sansa might be in some trouble during her trip to House Glover, we don’t buy it.

40. Randyll Tarly (And Dickon): 4%. The Tarly boys seems pretty safe for now, being badass soldiers and having a large army at their call. And we desperately want to see more Randyll Tarly. Maybe chewing out the cook for some bad soup?

41-50. Red-Wedding surprised

We would stake our life that these characters making it through this week.

41. Qyburn: 2%. Qyburn has taken the last few weeks off, but still has his little birds running around King’s Landing. But are they really his?

42.Varys: 2%. Despite being rattled by Kinarva two weeks ago, we believe the eunuch to be safe for now, as very little surprises a spider.

42. Euron Greyjoy: 2%. So crazy uncle Euron is building a thousand ships. How long is that going to take? At least the length of this episode, we think, and if so, Euron is safe on the Iron Islands.

43. Kinarva: 2%. Kinarva doesn’t strike us as the type to be surprised, so unless she is planning on dying, we don’t see it happening this week.

44. Brienne of Tarth: 2%. If Brienne arrives at Riverrun in “The Broken Man,” she could be reunited with her long lost love, Ser Jaime Lannister. We don’t see the Kingslayer allowing anything to happen to the Maid of Tarth.

45. Podrick Payne: 2%. Ditto goes for Brienne’s faithful sidekick, especially if Bronn meets up with Podrick and the two swap stories about their conquests.

46. Bronn: 1%. Bronn is back! Bronn is back! We couldn’t be more excited for the return of Bronn, and if they kill him this episode we will fly to Los Angeles and burn down David Benioff and Dan Weiss’ homes. Kidding.

47. Ramsay Bolton: 1%. Since we’re pretty sure now that the ninth episode is titled “The Battle of the Bastards,” who else would be battling but Ramsay and Jon? Gendry is still rowing, last we checked.

48. Tyrion Lannister: 1%. Tyrion is walking a fine line right now, trying not to anger the freed men of Meereen while appeasing the slavers at the gates. It’s possible someone could take a shot at the littlest Lannister, but we think Tyrion makes it back to Westeros.

49. Daenerys Targaryen: 1%. So Daenerys is headed back to Meereen, and may or may not be ready to finally head back to Westeros. But where will she find ships?

50. Melessa and Talla Tarly: 1%. The Tarly women had to have been some of the sweetest characters we’ve ever met in the normally brutal Seven Kingdoms. Who would ever want to hurt them?