11 events we're looking forward to seeing in House of the Dragon season 3

House of the Dragon is a Game of Thrones prequel series focused on a section of Targaryen history known as the Dance of the Dragons. Those events were mentioned from time to time in the Song of Ice and Fire books by George R.R. Martin and on HBO's Game of Thrones TV show, but are detailed most extensively in Martin's pseudo-history book Fire & Blood. With two seasons of the prequel completed and a confirmed four-season arc, it's relatively easy to say what events will have to happen in the next couple of seasons.

The first season was all about getting the pieces in place. Audiences were introduced to Viserys Targaryen and the two sides of his family: his daughter Rhaenyra and his children with his second wife Alicent Hightower. Over about two decades, the tension between these sides of the family built, culminating in the Green Council stealing the throne from Rhaenyra and giving it to Alicent's son, Aegon.

From there, it would seem as though war was the natural next step. However, the writers decided to have season 2 focus on attempts to avert the war, as well as showing the actions that made war impossible to avoid. Rhaenyra grieved her son, Helaena’s son was butchered before her eyes, Rhaenys was killed, and Aegon was grievously injured. All the while, both sides mustered their forces, from Rhaenyra’s dragonseeds and Daemon’s army to the Triarchy and the forces of King’s Landing.

The second season set an incredibly slow pace, but it can’t be delayed any longer. War is coming for Westeros, and the Targaryen family will destroy itself in an onslaught of Fire and Blood. Here are 11 events that fans can expect to see in season 2, drawn from Fire & Blood and the plotlines established in the season 2 finale of the show.

WARNING: Major spoilers from Fire & Blood follow below!

1. The Battle of the Gullet

Fans expected the Battle of the Gullet to be at the end of Season 2, but the decision to hold back on it until season 3 means it pretty much has to be the start of the next season. According to showrunner Ryan Condal, the Battle was delayed because the writers wanted to "give it the time and the space that it deserves." Hopefully, that decision will be born out by a high-quality conflict that launches this Targaryen civil war to a new level.

The Battle of the Gullet is one of the most significant events in the Dance of the Dragons, with particular importance for Rhaenyra's side. As detailed in Fire & Blood, the Battle begins when the Triarchy runs into (and attacks) the ship taking Rhaenyra's younger sons Aegon and Viserys to Pentos. Prince Aegon flies away on his dragon, and while both landed on Dragonstone, his dragon Stormcloud dies shortly thereafter. Prince Viserys is taken prisoner and assumed dead. After hearing about the conflict from his younger brother, Prince Jacaerys and the dragonseeds fly out to face the Triarchy forces, with fatal consequences.

It ends up being called a tragedy and a victory by both sides, as the Blacks take horrible personal losses but maintain the Velaryon blockade and destroy the Triarchy fleet. If done well, this could reinvigorate fans' interest in House of the Dragon by providing both the action that season 2 was sorely missing and the personal stakes that the series has occasionally failed to establish properly.

2. Rhaena bonding with a dragon

The end of Season 2 teased that a book character named Nettles was being merged with Rhaena Targaryen. In both the book and show, Rhaena was given a dragon egg as a child, but the hatchling didn’t survive long. This put her on the sidelines of the civil war, something the show’s version of the character resents.

But there’s a pretty big deviation coming. In the book, Rhaena stays safe and relatively happy through most of the war as a ward of Jeyne Arryn’s in the Vale. Eventually, one of the dragon eggs she brought hatches and bonds with her. Meanwhile, a peasant girl named Nettles manages to become a dragonrider by bringing sheep to the wild dragon Sheepstealer on Dragonstone until it accepts her.

But the show has placed Sheepstealer in the Vale, giving Rhaena the opportunity to claim him after leaving the Eyrie, which implies that it's cut Nettles altogether. It will be exciting to see if Rhaena uses the same strategy Nettles did, and how it will change things for another of Daemon’s daughters to join the fight. Nettles was the subject of a lot of suspicion, especially because she may have had an affair with Daemon; the book isn't entirely clear on this point. Assuming that Rhaena will not follow this path, her relationship with Rhaenyra and value in the war effort could have massive ripple effects.

3. The Battle of the Honeywine

The Greens assumed that the Reach would side with them during the civil war because House Hightower is from the area. However, House Tyrell declared itself neutral and many of the lesser houses declared for Rhaenyra. In the book, Otto Hightower orders Lord Ormund Hightower to get the region under control, but it proves difficult.

In the book, House Hightower is plagued by rebels for months, with Aemond Targaryen — then in charge of things in King's Landing — refusing to send assistance because of his obsession with his uncle Daemon. This leads to a conflict at the Honeywine river where the Hightower troops are caught between two enemy armies. It seems like they were doomed until Daeron Targaryen (who has yet to be seen onscreen in the show but who has been talked about) arrives on his dragon and destroys many of the Blacks' most prominent leaders.

In the histories, it's a relatively minor battle in terms of the overall war, although it does chip away the strength of both sides. But the show's version will probably be far more interesting for two reasons. First, the introduction of Daeron has the potential to add nuance to the Greens, as Alicent has already been desperate for proof that her sons aren't inherently monstrous. Perhaps more importantly, the show has changed things so Otto Hightower is being held captive somewhere after he leaves King's Landing, whereas in the book he stays in the city the whole time. It seems likely that he is being held by the rogue forces in the Reach, in which case he will either be a valuable hostage or a Trojan horse for his captors.

4. Aemond’s obsession with Daemon takes him to Harrenhal

Season 2 left off with Daemon committing his troops at Harrenhal to Rhaenyra, but the location is certain to appear again in season 3. In the book, Daemon uses the castle as a base of operations until he learns that Aemond is coming. Then he abandons the stronghold to give Aemond a lackluster win, hoping he will stay there long enough for Daemon to make other attacks.

This is a pretty important plot point, because it helps set up where Daemon and Aemond are at various points in the upcoming battles, as well as what strongholds have been left undefended. But the personal element could be an exciting addition in season 3. The show has depicted Aemond as being obsessed with besting his uncle Daemon, and that will only heat up as the story continues.

There are a few places to explore this idea. First, why does Aemond care so much about Daemon when there are so many other targets? Yes, Daemon has a military background, but he has almost no established connection with his nephew in the show at all. Going further, Daemon was seemingly aided by Alys Rivers at Harrenhal, but in the book Alys eventually becomes Aemond’s mistress. There’s an odd sort of love triangle there, and the rivalry between Aemond and Daemon could be both a strategic focus and an emotional engine in the upcoming season.

5. The Fishfeed (Battle by the Lakeshore)

While there are many battles in the Dance of the Dragons where one side dealt blows to the other, few have as significant an impact on the characters audiences actually care about in the show. But the Battle by the Lakeshore, sometimes called the Fishfeed, is the bloodiest land battle of the entire war and marks a major power shift.

The forces raised by Jason Lannister are trying to fight for the Greens but they face foes on all sides. Various groups fighting for Rhaenyra, mostly from the North and the Riverlands, trap the western forces at the Gods Eye lake and plan to slaughter them before they can get reinforcements from Aemond.

Although many of the Blacks' forces are killed in this battle, the western soldiers are absolutely destroyed, either dying in combat or drowning in the lake. The battle prompts Dalton Greyjoy to join Rhaenyra's cause as an excuse to pillage the westerlands. Aemond and Criston Cole must abandon Harrenhal, which they had just recently 'won.' Thousands die on both sides, but the Fishfeed forces Aemond into a defensive position without the Blacks deploying a single dragon.

6. Daemon and Rhaenyra’s partnership

The end of Season 2 saw Daemon fully commit to Rhaenyra, both militarily and personally. This would seem to suggest that the pair will be together again in season 3, but will that be as a romantic pair or simply as allies in war?

In the book, Daemon was an ally for Rhaenyra, but certainly not a faithful husband. He rekindles his relationship with Mysaria for much of the Dance, possibly switching to Nettles when he is sent after Aemond and Vhagar. In the show, neither of those relationships seem likely, since Daemon betrayed Mysaria and Nettles’ story was given to Daemon’s daughter.

That means that Daemon could actually be faithful in the show, but Rhaenyra is now having an affair with Mysaria, or at least seemed to start one. That might not be a huge problem, as the book suggested that Rhaenyra didn’t mind Daemon sleeping with Mysaria, and the show could either flip that dynamic or make them a power throuple. But it’s just as likely that they decide to keep their relationship for political reasons without romantic reconciliation.

The pairing is popular amongst fans, in large part because Matt Smith and Emma D’Arcy have excellent chemistry. But Daemon’s simmering resentment has always been part of their relationship, and they were rarely in the same place once the Dance truly began. It’s hard to imagine too many more scenes with them together, but it would be nice to see at least some happiness and closure for the duo before the war rips them apart.

7. The Fall of King's Landing

Based on the deal made between Alicent and Rhaenyra in the season two finale, it’s unclear how the Fall of King’s Landing may play out in season 3. In the source material, Aemond's obsession with Daemon leads him and Criston Cole to leave King’s Landing to attack Harrenhal. However, Daemon had already moved on, coordinating with Rhaenyra and Corlys Velaryon to launch an attack on the capitol by air, land, and sea. The city is taken in a single day, with King Aegon and his children fleeing the city with Larys Strong and Rhaenyra officially claiming the Iron Throne.

A lot of this will have to be different in the show. For one thing, Aegon and Larys have already left King’s Landing, so Aemond leaving will mean that the only royal residents will be Alicent and Helaena (the fates of the children is currently unclear). In the book, Otto Hightower is captured and killed at the capitol, while his current whereabouts are unknown in the show.

The biggest question for how successful this battle is from a narrative perspective is whether there will be real stakes. Since Alicent offered to give the city to Rhaenyra, it’s hard to imagine that Rhaenyra, Daemon, and Corlys will come across as strategic geniuses. It will either happen with little effort or something will cause them to break the original deal.

The best way to handle this would be by invoking personal stakes. Alicent may be willing to give Rhaenyra the city now, but not if her father gets executed in the Battle of the Honeywine. Rhaenyra might offer a peaceful solution for Helaena’s family now, but not after learning that two of her sons were killed by the Greens. It will either be a fairly disappointing transfer of power or the most impactful conflict so far in the show, entirely decided by when it takes place and how.

8. Helaena’s role in the war (and her fate)

Helaena Targaryen is probably the character who changed the most from book to show. Her status as a dragon dreamer was at best exaggerated, at worst completely invented, for House of the Dragon, and that has caused a complete shift in her plotline. Thus, it's hard to know what to expect out of her as the war begins in earnest in season 3.

In Fire & Blood, Helaena was completely destroyed by the events of Blood and Cheese, having been forced to choose between her sons and then watching the mercenaries behead the one she picked to live. That guilt, along with her grief, makes her fully retreat into herself, refusing to ride her dragon or participate in the war effort. After Aegon is injured and the capitol taken by Rhaenyra, Helaena's other son (who doesn’t yet exist in the show) is killed, and Helaena takes her own life, leading to riots in the city.

This is a very dark plotline, and at this point, it would be incredibly difficult to adapt onscreen. The absence of Helaena's son Maelor is a huge part of this, but the reveal in the season 2 finale that she was helping guide Daemon during his visions at Harrenhal pretty much takes it off the table. She seems to know what is going to happen and be completely okay with it. Instead of succumbing to her grief, the show's version of Helaena might be actively involved in the war, just behind the scenes.

So what will become of Queen Helaena after Rhaenyra takes King's Landing in season 3? They will either have to cut Helaena’s suicide entirely or invent a new reason for her death. Although her final fate might not be revealed until season 4, how Helaena acts in Season 3 will decide whether George R. R. Martin was right to complain that the show has ruined her character arc.

9. The Butcher's Ball

For the most part, season 2 showed the Greens in power, with the Blacks scrambling to get a foothold. Season 3 will likely show the reverse, and as shown already, Aemond likes to burn entire towns when he gets angry. That’s just the beginning of how he responds in the book.

Along with destroying towns and cities, Aemond develops a hobby for slaughtering people and posing their bodies in grotesque mimicries of real life. This has a major impact on Criston Cole’s mental health, but it also creates the opportunity for the Blacks to stage an ambush, masquerading their troops as corpses and then attacking when the Greens got too close.

Cole is killed in this trap, along with nearly all of his forces. In the show, this will be the moment where the Greens seem to have truly lost. Practically all of their allies will have died or deserted, and all that remains is the royal family and a handful of their dragons.

It will also be a significant moment given the importance of Criston Cole in the show. He turned to the Greens because of his twisted sense of honor and duty after Rhaenyra rejected him, but witnessing the Battle of Rook’s Rest broke something in him. He knows that he backed the wrong side, or rather that there is no good side. By the time of the Butcher’s Ball, it will be clear how much he meant that, “to die will be a kind of relief.”

Aegon’s life in exile

In the book, Aegon flees King’s Landing when Rhaenyra takes the city. But the show version of the character is already gone. So the question that season 3 must answer is where he has gone, and what he will be doing there.

In the book, Aegon pretends to be a member of the smallfolk, which eventually allows him to break into Dragonstone. This isn't particularly difficult because Rhaenyra was already in King’s Landing and most of her forces were away. But unless the show completely restructures the timeline, Dragonstone should still be a very dangerous place for most of season 3.

The season 2 finale suggests that Aegon may be on his way to Braavos, as Larys hid most of Harrenhal’s wealth at the Iron Bank. This plotline will have to be completely original, however, because there was little going on there in the source material until much later in the civil war. How will Aegon handle being in exile, under threat of death from both his brother and his sister?

Another question the writers will have to answer is whether Aegon is going to get a new dragon. In the book, Sunfyre survives the Battle of Rook’s Rest and simply goes into hiding until he reconnects with Aegon later. But the show has claimed that Sunfyre is dead, although we haven't seen a body. So season 3 will either have to reveal that as a lie or give Aegon a new dragon to ride moving forward, or else heavily rewrite the subsequent events.

11. The Treasons of Tumbleton

Although Rhaenyra was winning on many fronts, the First Battle of Tumbleton causes a drastic shift. The Greens are trying to reclaim the capitol, so Rhaenyra sends a majority of her forces, along with Dragonseeds Ulf White and Hugh Hammer, to stop Ormund Hightower and his men from advancing any further.

At first, it seems to be going well. Many people die, but the Black forces are winning, taking out several Green leaders. However, the battle is plagued by betrayals. Hugh and Ulf are supposed to stop Prince Daeron from getting anywhere, but instead they side with the Greens and attack the town in hopes of getting greater rewards down the line. Two of the commanders also switch sides.

This battle has massive implications for both sides. The Greens technically won, but many of their men are killed and others out of control, pillaging and attacking the city before deserting. The Blacks lose an important battle, but more importantly trust in their allies. This leads Rhaenyra to become paranoid, threatening the other Dragonseeds and trapping the smallfolk in King’s Landing with her.

There are a lot of implications for this battle in the show. First, the writers will need to sow the seeds of the Dragonseeds’ betrayal. In addition, it can continue playing with themes of inherent brutality, honor, and the general hopelessness for ordinary people when dragons decide to turn on them.

At this point, we don’t know precisely where the story of House of the Dragon will end. If it’s simply the end of Rhaenyra and Aegon, then season 3 will likely end with the series of betrayals at Tumbleton. If the show plans to include the establishment of the next line of Targaryens, then fans should expect to lose nearly every main character the show has introduced so far over the course of season 3.

Whichever way they choose to take it, season 3 has to finally dive into war. And that war needs to be more than just a battle here and there. The Dance of the Dragons is the beginning of the end for the Targaryen dynasty, and House of the Dragon needs to be willing to show that. More than that, they need to provide enough scenes with the main characters that audiences care when their lives are at risk.

Season 3 is expected to debut in 2026, and it may take until then for fans to know whether or not Ryan Condal and his writers can pull it off.

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