Valar Morghulis: Who’s most likely to die in “Battle of the Bastards”?

Valar morghulis: All men (and women) must die. But when?

Welcome to a very special edition of Valar Morghulis, as we look ahead to the ninth episode of Game of Thrones Season 6, “Battle of the Bastards.” Like “Blackwater” and “The Watchers on the Wall,” this one looks to concern itself mainly with one event, in this case the battle between Ramsay Bolton and Jon Snow for control of the North. Death promises to be in abundance this episode, but as it probably won’t jump around in space too much, we will only be looking at the participants who are likely to show up in what we hope is the best episode of the year.

We have divided the characters into three groups for this edition of Valar Morghulis: those we are certain will appear, those related to the battle who might appear, and those unrelated to the battle who still might show up.

But first, let’s take a look at what we got right from last week’s episode, “No One.”

“The Waif: 95%. Okay, so we got this one wrong last week, and it was actually the Waif scoring a victory over Arya. But we aren’t counting out Arya quite yet, and that entire scene had a fishy feel to it. Call us skeptical that the Arya/Waif throwdown is over, and we still believe Arya will emerge victorious.”

We nailed this on the head. Things did not look good for Arya Stark after being gutted in “The Broken Man” at the hands of the Waif, but thanks to some magical soup from Lady Crane, Arya was soon up and running, literally.

Arya was clever to lure the Waif into her hovel before eliminating the only light source and killing the Waif in darkness. (By the way, who lit that candle? Was it burning the whole time?). Despite losing both of his pupils, even Jaqen H’Ghar approved. Read our detailed Curtain Call for the Waif here.

“Brynden Tully: 50%. Our trailer breakdown for “No One” seems to show Brienne departing Riverrun in a boat, with a horrified look upon her face. What would horrify Brienne? Mayhaps the death of the Blackfish and every other man in the Riverrun garrison?”

So the Riverrun garrison survived, but the Blackfish chose a samurai’s death and went down swinging. I remain disappointed we didn’t see it, and refuse to agree with producers about the gratuity of showing his death. Read our detailed Blackfish Curtain Call here.

Honorable Mention: Lady Crane. After spending several weeks at the top of our list, we removed her entirely as we assumed she would no longer appear on the show. Boy, were we wrong. Not sooner did Lady Crane reappear as Arya’s nursemaid that she was impaled upon her stool by the Waif. Ouch. Read our detailed Lady Crane Curtain Call here.

Okay. On to “Battle of the Bastards.”

****Percentages refer to how likely the character is to die, not survive.****

The characters we know will participate.

1. Ramsay Bolton: 99%. Finally! We’ll hopefully see this awful character meet his doom this week. Granted, it might be wishful thinking to put Ramsay at the very top of the list, but if the previous battle of Winterfell is any indication, he’ll likely lead his forces into battle. This means the bastard of Bolton will be exposed, and hopefully in quite a bit of peril. It’s certainly possible that the victorious Stark forces will simply decide to place Ramsay in chains, but if they do, I am throwing my replica of Needle straight through my TV. Save my TV, Game of Thrones producers. You don’t want its death on your hands.

2. Wun Wun: 90%. This one saddens us, as we love the giant Wun Wun, but we just don’t see how such a huge target escapes the battlefield alive. We know from the Battle of Castle Black that giants are not invincible, despite what it might have looked like during the Massacre at Hardhome last season.

We also saw in the teaser for the episode that the Bolton forces have more than a few archers on hand, and we just don’t see how all of them could miss such a huge target. We think Wun Wun will take out more than his fair share of the Bolton forces, and we’d love nothing more than to see him pick up Ramsay and smash him against a wall before he goes, but we still believe the giant won’t survive.

3. Harald Karstark: 90%. For some unexplained reason, even Ramsay Bolton has friends, and Harald Karstark is one of them. True, Robb Stark executed Harald’s father Rickard way back in Season 3, but still we aren’t sure how you take up the cause of a man like Ramsay. Either way, Harald pledged his house, one of the biggest in the North after the Starks and the Boltons, to the Bolton cause, and appears to be Ramsay’s new right-hand man.

If we are right about the death of Ramsay, we believe that Harald’s death will precede it, and we don’t believe anyone will shed a tear to see this turncloak meet his doom.

4. Tormund Giantsbane: 75%. Once again, we are saddened to even think about the death of the Tormund Gianstbane, if for no other reason than because we’ll miss his penis jokes. But either way, we believe this might be the point when the extraordinarily lucky wildling finally runs out luck. Surviving the battles of Castle Black and Hardhome seems an improbable feat in itself.

Tormund will most certainly be among the first into the fray, and with the size of the arrayed Bolton forces, we have to think he’ll also be among the first casualties. We can only hope that he manages to take out someone important down with him.

5. Smalljon Umber: 75%. Here’s yet another former Stark ally who has taken up the Bolton cause, and we can’t understand why. There was some noise about the wildlings, and since the show has gone heavy on trying to convince us that the North is full of xenophobes, we suppose that will have to do. Unlike the Karstarks, however, the Umbers were thought to be loyal house to the Starks, but that relationship ended when the Smalljon handed over Rickon Stark to Ramsay.

Considering the Umbers have broken faith with House Stark, we hope the Smalljon meets with a swift death.

6. Melisandre: 50%. I’ve been predicting Melisandre’s death for most of the season, and it appears that this might be the episode where the Red Woman finally meets her end. Unlike some of others on this list, however, I believe Melisandre will meet her fate at the hands of an ally, not an enemy.

A teaser breakdown revealed the moment we have all been waiting for: Davos finding the pyre Melisandre built to burn Shireen alive back in Season 5. We simply cannot believe that Davos will find the pyre (and likely that wooden stag he carved for Shireen), and simply shrug it off. We expect the normally steady and level-headed Davos to fly into some sort of rage, and put an end to his old enemy.

7. Davos Seaworth: 50%. If Davos survives at attempt on Melisandre’s life, he should at least make it to the battle, but surviving that is a whole other story.

We can’t see much narrative reason to keep Davos around after, and if, he kills Melisandre, despite our desire to see him become one of the rare “good guys” to survive until the end of the series. Will “Battle of the Bastards” be the last ride of Davos Seaworth? Come and see.

8. Rickon Stark 50%. Rickon has remained unseen since a brief sighting back in “Oathbreaker.” when the Smalljon handed over to Ramsay Bolton as a gift. The youngest Stark sibling remains in the hands of the most psychotic man in all of Westeros, and that isn’t what you would call a healthy living situation.

Remember those shots in the teaser images of flayed men burning on Bolton crosses? We fear that Rickon might get strung up. Ramsay, after all, is a maniac known for his brutality. We hope we’re wrong about this one.

9. Jon Snow: 25%. Yes, we know. Jon Snow is leading a numerically inferior force up against a better-equipped and organized army. And yes, there is that image of Jon foolishly standing alone in front of a heavy cavalry charge. But we still don’t see Game of Thrones producers ending two seasons in a row with the death of Jon Snow.

Producers are really attempting to show us Jon’s death might be possible, even going so far as to have Jon request Melisandre not bring him back if he falls, but we still aren’t buying it. Somehow, Jon survives this battle. 

10. Sansa Stark: 20%. We think Sansa will make it through the battle as well. We doubt very much that she’ll be an active participant, and thus should remain fairly safe for most of its duration. If the Battle of the Bastards ends in a Stark victory, as we predict, we believe Sansa will be there to see the demise of her husband, Ramsay.

Sansa has come into her own this season, and if it holds, we are excited to see her transition into a more stately, Lady Catelyn-type role (although we expect she’ll be friendlier towards Jon). If Sansa does somehow perish in the battle, we aren’t sure where that would leave House Stark.

The characters that might participate.

11. Littlefinger: 15%. Thanks to some rather clever Redditors, we know that Sansa wrote to Littlefinger for aid back in “The Broken Man.” As Baelish seemed rather keen to help out Sansa in “The Door,” we assume the Knights of the Vale will show up at some point. When they do, we think their first priority will be protecting Littlefinger, allowing him to squirm away once more.

12. Brienne: 10%. We know that geography has no place in the world of Westeros, so it’s not out of the question that Brienne and Pod rowed their way up to Winterfell in just one episode, but we aren’t sure. If Brienne does arrive during the battle, our guess is it that it would be rather late, so she should remain safe for this week.

13. Podrick Payne: 10% Remember that everyone wants to hit a squire, so if Brienne and Pod do somehow show up, it could be Pod that pays the price.

14. Arya Stark: 5% Could this episode bring us another Stark family reunion? Arya did state at the end of “No One” that she was headed home, and she may have meant Winterfell? It would take a long while to get from Braavos to Winterfell, but like writer Bryan Cogman said, not everyone’s storylines occur at the same time.

Next: Are you ready for a surprise? Spoilers follow the jump.