Valar Morghulis: Who’s most likely to die in “The Winds of Winter”?

Valar morghulis: All men (and women) must die. But when?

Well hello there. Has everyone remembered to breathe after last week’s incredible “Battle of the Bastards?” Those ninth episodes are always fun, although for such a large-scale battle, it was relatively light in the body count department.

This week we have the season finale, “The Winds of Winter,” and the great thing about season finales is that all bets are off. Jon Snow isn’t going to die in the third episode of any given season, but in a season finale? Sure. So be afraid for your favorite characters.Be very afraid. Before we get to who we think meets their makers this week though, let’s see who we got right last week.

1. Ramsay Bolton: 99%. In the last column, I threatened to throw my replica of Needle through my TV if Ramsay survived the episode. Everyone will be happy to know that my TV is safe. Ramsay is on the Mount Rushmore of villains in the Game of Thrones universe, and we doubt anyone is mourning the Bastard of Bolton. After losing his army and losing Winterfell, Ramsay was devoured by his own dogs, much to the delight of fans worldwide. Read our detailed Iwan Rheon Curtain Call here.

2. Wun Wun: 90%. This was the pick we did not want to get right, but sadly we did. Wun Wun survived until the waning moments of the battle, but Ramsay had to take one more victim with him before he went, and sadly that was the ever hilarious Wun Wun. Could nobody have gotten this poor guy a shield? Read our detailed Curtain Call for Ian Whyte here.

5. Smalljon Umber: 75%. This guy paid the price for betraying House Stark. Going one on one with Tormund is not the best idea in the world, and despite putting a major dent in the wildling leader, the Smalljon’s neck was no match for Tormund’s teeth. Not sad to see this guy go.

8. Rickon Stark 50%. Yet another pick we were sad to be right about, even if Rickon was mostly a non-factor through most of the series, he was still a Stark. And we love the Starks. But for crying out loud, if a madman tells you to run across a field, zig zag! Read our detailed Curtain Call for Rickon Stark here.

15. Those Slaver Guys. (Belicho Paenymion, Yezzan zo Qaqqaz, Razdak mo Eraz): 75%. Two out of three isn’t bad, is it? The only shock about how this played out was that Daenerys allowed one of the slavers to live. Lucky him.

Honorable Mention: That one guy who saved Jon only to immediately be killed himself before Jon could thank him. Poor guy.

Okay. On to the main event of the season, “The Winds of Winter.”

****Percentages refer to how likely the character is to die, not survive.****

1-10. Jory-Cassel-picking-fight-with-Jaime-Lannister surprised

You had, like, three scenes in Season 1. Why did you pick a fight with the Kingslayer? These are the characters we think most likely to die this week. We hope they all have their affairs in order. 

1. Kevan Lannister: 90%.

Ser Kevan has been nothing but a thorn in Cersei’s side since he returned to the Small Council back in Season 5, and we have long thought this season would be the last for him. It would certainly require Cersei to cross a very big line, killing another Lannister, but we think she could do it. She may well get the Frankenmountain involved.

2. Pycelle: 80%.

He hasn’t quite been the thorn in Cersei’s side that Ser Kevan has been, but Pycelle has still been an annoyance to Cersei for a very long time. Remember Cersei sending him away from Joffrey’s wedding feast? She has not liked Pycelle for a while, and it’s time to clean house in King’s Landing.

3. Lancel Lannister: 75%.

Has this kid ever made a smart decision in his life? When you come from one of the most powerful and privileged families in the Seven Kingdoms, you don’t ditch your upbringing and become a beggar thug. And has anyone else forgotten that Lancel slept with Cersei? That makes Lancel the star witness in Cersei’s upcoming trial, and I think we have all seen enough mafia movies to know what happens to star witnesses. This one even has a target carved into his forehead.

4. Melisandre: 75%. 

Last week, Ser Davos found the remains of Shireen’s stag, the one he carved for her back in Season 5, near the pyre where the young princess was burned alive. With that sort of evidence in hand, how does the Red Woman talk her way out of this one? Perhaps Jon feels some sort of gratitude towards Melisandre for bringing him back from the dead, but we aren’t so sure. It would be hard for the always honorable House Stark to allow Melisandre not to pay for her crime(s).

5. The High Sparrow: 75%. 

There aren’t many players in the great game as crafty or as smart as the High Sparrow. The old man has outmaneuvered the Lannisters and Tyrells at every turn, and made them look like utter fools in the process. Still, as a wise woman once said, “Power is power.”

The High Sparrow has been playing with fire for the past two seasons, and at some point, he’s bound to get burned. Cersei is clearly getting backed into a corner, and it’s only a matter of time until she lashes out.

6. Loras Tyrell: 50%. 

We haven’t seen Loras in quite some time, although Margaery continues to mention him, and we know from this week’s teaser that Loras’ trial will happen. Does Loras become a Sparrow and renounce his name and titles to live the rest of his life a common beggar? Whatever he decides, he risks getting caught in the crossfire of Cersei’s revenge plan.

7. Dolorus Edd: 50%. We haven’t seen Castle Black since Jon and Sansa departed south in “The Door,” but we think that Bran will reach the Wall this week. And remember: Bran was marked by the Night’s King back in that same episode. That could have disastrous effects on both the Night’s Watch and the Wall itself.

Edd has pledged to defend the Wall against all enemies to the north, but the Wall may not stand much longer. If it falls, or if the White Walkers make it past by some other means, Edd will be the first one to fight them, and that doesn’t help his chances.

8. Walder Frey: 50%. This is our second out-of-left-field pick for the week, but we find it odd that Jaime would travel to the Twins after expressing such a strong desire to get back to Cersei. The hairs on the back of our neck are screaming Red Wedding 2.0. We Frey making a callback to the Red Wedding. “The Lannisters and the Freys send their regards.” Wouldn’t it be deliciously ironic if Walder Frey was killed at another feast?

And if that’s not enough for you, remember that a certain girl with a list is headed back to Westeros. And its a very short list now.

9. Septa Unella: 50%. This pick largely depends on how things play out during Cersei and Loras’ trial. Our guess is that things do not go well, and that there are some casualties. As tough as Unella is with that little spoon or whatever she uses to pop people, it won’t do much against an armored soldier.

Thanks to Cersei, the trial might turn into an all-out bloodbath, who once promised that she would be the last thing Unella saw before dying. So yeah. Sorry, Septa.

10. Tommen Baratheon: 50%. Little Tommen is being pulled in a hundred directions by a lot of powerful people. How long until one of those people decides things would be easier without the last Baratheon? Tommen has never shown the ability to anticipate other people’s intentions, and we doubt that changes any time soon.

The woods witch predicted the death of all of Cersei’s children, so we assume Tommen’s number comes up at some point, and we think that point could be in this episode.

11-20. Wun-Wun-smashing-that-dude-into-the-wall surprised

When you shoot a giant with a crossbow, what do you think is going to happen? We wouldn’t be surprised if any of these people kick it soon.

11. Margaery Tyrell: 50%. Look, basically everyone in King’s Landing could be dead by the end of the episode, and Margaery can’t feel safe no matter what she is wearing nowadays.

12. Mace Tyrell: 50%. We’ve saw Mace hanging out in the throne room alongside Ser Kevan, and we don’t think hanging around Kevan Lannister right now is a good idea.

13. Qyburn: 40%. Sure Qyburn is on Cersei”s side, but if Cersei does go bonkers and start a killing spree, it’s possible he’ll be killed carrying out her orders.

14. Edmure Tully: 35%. Despite receiving Jaime’s promise of safety, Edmure still remains in quite a bit of danger. If Edmure is returned to the Twins and Walder Frey’s care? Bye bye, Tully.

15. Olenna Tyrell: 35%. Yes we know that Olenna hightailed it out of King’s Landing after being warned by Margaery. But who said the High Sparrow’s reach (or Cersei’s) doesn’t extend beyond King’s Landing? Olenna has made plenty of enemies, and the roads are dangerous.

16. Littlefinger: 35%. Littlefinger’s safety or lack thereof largely depends on how much Jon and Sansa know about what went down with Ned Stark way back in the day. It doesn’t seem like much, but you never know…

17. Meera Reed: 35%. If Bran’s party is somehow waylaid on it’s way south to the Wall, Meeera could easily be a casualty.

18. Bran Stark: 30%. Bran is headed south, still marked by the Night’s King. That allowed the Night’s King to find him once before, and we can’t believe that was a one-off. Despite Benjen’s skill at killing wights, we imagine it would be different if an actual WhiteWalker showed up. Or the Night King himself.

19. Davos Seaworth: 25%. This might appear to contradict what we said about Melisandre, but if the Starks do deny Ser Davos the justice he seeks, we would not put it past the Onion Knight to take matters into his own hands. And that could end badly for him.

20. Benjen Stark: 25%. Benjen should be escorting his nephew south to the relative safety of the Wall, and he may not survive the trip. There is an army of undead on their trail.

21-30. Tywin-Lannister-sitting-on-the-toilet surprised.

It was surprising, but the way he treated his family had to come back and bite him sooner or later. If these characters died this week, we’d raise an eyebrow.

21. Cersei Lannister: 25%. Cersei Lannister makes her highest appearance of the season, rising from the bottom of our rankings to close to the top half. Why? Cersei is about to have a meltdown of epic proportions, and it’s possible she’ll become a victim of her own plan. It’s a long shot, but there’s a chance. 

22. Bronn: 25%. We seem to all be in agreement that something is going to go down at the Twins, right? Who’s to say Bronn doesn’t get caught up in it?

23. Theon Greyjoy: 20%. Theon joined forces with Daenerys last week, but the Greyjoys are now faced with a dangerous trip back to Westeros with their crazy uncle Euron lurking about. 

24. Yara Greyjoy: 15%. Yara is in slightly less danger, as it appeared that she and Daenerys hit it off rather well.

25. Euron Greyjoy: 15%. If Euron is still back in the Iron Islands making those thousand ships, he’s safe. If he somehow made it halfway around the world to anywhere near Meereen, well, we saw what dragons do to wooden ships.

26. Daario Naharis: 15%. Daario and Dany looked to be having the breakup conversation in this week’s teaser, which could mean that Daario is staying behind in Meereen for one reason or another. And we doubt all those Sons of the Harpy just suddenly gave up the cause.

27. Brienne of Tarth: 15%. We imagine Brienne and Pod are somewhere in the North, which isn’t the safest place in the world right now, even if House Bolton was wiped off the face of Westeros last week.

28. Podrick Payne: 15%. Everyone wants to hit a squire, Pod. We don’t want them to. We love you, Pod.

29. Samwell Tarly: 15%. Last we saw Samwell Tarly, he was making off with his father’s sword after having the most awkward dinner of all time. Sam’s father hardly seems likely to forgive the theft of Heartsbane.

30. Gilly (And little Sam): 15%. If Randyll Tarly is willing to kill his own son, he wouldn’t hesitate to Gilly, what with his self-professed hatred of wildlings.

31-40. Ned-Stark-getting-his-head-chopped-off surprised.

Everyone thought Ned Stark was the main character, right? It would be a major shock if anyone in this group died at this point in the story.

31. Jaime Lannister: 10%. Jaime is stopping by the Twins before heading back to King’s Landing? What’s that all about? Might some skulduggery be in order?

32. Grey Worm: 10%. It looks like Team Dany is headed to Westeros, but might there be some final lurking danger in Meereen?

33. Missandei: 10%. Missandei and Grey Worm remain linked, and despite howbad ass her boyfriend looked last week, we are guessing Meereen has one last surprise in store for our heroes.

34. Thoros of Myr: 10%. We know the Brotherhood are headed north, but might they make a stop at the Twins first?

35. Beric Dondarrion: 10%. Beric has been living on borrowed time for years, and if the Brotherhood makes a stop at the Twins on its way north, it might finally run out.

36. The Hound: 10%. It appeared as if the Hound was at least considering signing on with the Brotherhood, and who better to suggest a stop at the Twins than a man who was there during the Red Wedding?

37.  Arya Stark: 5%. If Arya makes it back to Westeros quickly, so may make a beeline for Walder Frey, who’s still on her list. Could get fairly crowded at the Twins.

38. Varys: 5%. It’s hard to predict the danger level for someone when we have no idea where they are or who they are with. And yet, somehow we think the spider is safe.

39.  Sansa Stark: 4%. Sansa, more than Jon, won the Battle of the Bastards, and might have a marriage proposal to consider this week. Either way, Sansa is safe for the finale.

40. Tyrion Lannister: 4%. We highly doubt Tyrion dies over in Essos without ever seeing his family again, but like we said: all bets are off in the season finale.

41-50. Red-Wedding surprised

We would stake our life that these characters making it through this week.

41. Tormund Gianstbane: 3%. Unless Tormund drinks himself to death on sour goat’s milk, we say the wildling leader is safe.

42. Jon Snow: 1%. Jon isn’t going to die in the season finales of two seasons is he? And one week after winning the Battle of the Bastards? Nah.

43. Randyll Tarly (And Dickon): 1%. If Samwell turns up in the finale,Randyll may not be far behind. Still, it’s hard to imagine Sam defeating his father in combat.

44. Kinarva: 1%. Kinarva drops in the rankings quite a bit, from the top to the bottom, but mainly because we aren’t certain she will even appear.

45. Jorah Mormont: 1%. Our gut tells us that we have seen the last of Ser Jorah. Either way, he’s not likely to pop up only to die. See you in Season 7, Ser Mormont.

46. Daenerys Targaryen: 1%. It appears that Game of  Thrones fans might finally get their wish and watch Dany heading back to Westeros. She’s got stuff left to do.