Fan Theory Corner: The Northern Fool Fallacy and Jon Snow’s Motivations in season 7

Jon vs Daenerys

Daenerys Targaryen has done things worthy of praise, and certainly sees herself as a beleaguered hero — we can hear that when she gives a speech about herself to Jon Snow upon their first meeting. “Do you know what kept me standing through all those years in exile?” she asks him. “Faith. Not in any gods, not in myths and legends. In myself. In Daenerys Targaryen. The world hadn’t seen a dragon in centuries until my children were born. The Dothraki hadn’t cross the sea, any sea. They did for me.” Daenerys sees herself as someone special.

But as the seasons wore on, Daenerys did plenty of things that were questionable, even villainous. We season 7, we can see this slide as she speaks to the surviving Lannister soldiers after the Loot Train Attack:

"I know what Cersei has told you. That I have come to destroy your cities, burn down your homes, murder you and orphan your children. That’s Cersei Lannister, not me. I’m not here to murder, and the only thing I want to destroy is the wheel that has rolled over rich and poor, to the benefit of no one but the Cersei Lannisters of the world. I offer you a choice: Bend the knee and join me. Together, we will leave the world a better place than we found it. Or refuse… and die."

Compare this to the war-mongering speech Daenerys gives to the Dothraki in season 6, where she asks them to “kill my enemies in their iron suits” and “tear down their stone houses.” We’re left to wonder if Daenerys even comprehends her own intentions. Has she come to destroy cities and homes (stone houses) and orphan children (killing enemies in iron suits) or not?

Daenerys’ own advisors express concern over her methods, as when Tyrion and Varys’ speak after she executes the Tarlys:

"TYRION: “All rulers demand that people bend the knee. That’s why they’re rulers. She gave Tarly a choice, a man who had taken up arms against her. What else could she do?” VARYS: “Not burn him alive alongside his son?” TYRION: “I am her Hand, not her head. I can’t make her decisions for her.” VARYS: “That’s what I used to tell myself about her father. I found the traitors, but I wasn’t the one burning them alive. I was only a purveyor of information. It’s what I told myself when I watched them beg for mercy: I’m not the one doing it. And when the pitch of their screams rose higher: I’m not the one doing it. When their hair caught fire and the smell of burning flesh filled the throne room: I’m not the one doing it.”"

As Varys points out, a lack of action is still an act of complicity. “You have to find a way to make her listen,” he tells Tyrion. But there’s the rub: Daenerys isn’t listening to Tyrion anymore, so he needs to find a new angle. He’s already seen her seek Jon’s counsel over his own, so let us speculate that Tyrion — like Jon — uses Daenerys’ feelings for Jon to universal benefit.

"DAENERYS: “Jon Snow’s not in love with me.” TYRION: “I suppose he stares at you longingly because he’s hopeful for a successful military alliance.”"

I’ll humor Tyrion and say that we explicitly saw Jon looking at Daenerys “longingly” rather than like this. And my answer would be: Yeah, he looks at her that way precisely because he wants a successful military alliance. Jon ascertains Daenerys’ character, needs her help, and knows that looking at her longingly may be the right way to get it.

But does Tyrion even believe what he’s saying, or has he simply “[found] a way to make her listen,” as Varys advised? Daenerys’ vulnerability lies in her feelings for Jon, and her vulnerability makes her softer, more heroic, and perhaps less likely to act upon that temper Tyrion calls out in the same conversation.

Where is this all headed? Despite Daenerys’ romantic feelings for Jon, what it boils down to is another round of the Dance of Dragons, the Targaryen civil war that ripped Westeros apart nearly 200 years before the start of the series. There is foreshadowing for such a turn of events. Note the final words Jon says to Daenerys in “Eastwatch” before he leaves Dragonstone: “I wish you good fortune in the wars to come, Your Grace.” These are the same words spoken by Mance Rayder to Stannis Baratheon before Stannis burns him, and by Arthur Dayne to Ned before their battle at the Tower of Joy. This dialogue sets up a scenario where Jon and Daenerys break their alliance and become enemies.

But what could account for such a shift? The answer is simple: Daenerys’ claim to the Iron Throne will be threatened by Jon and Cersei alike.

"DAENERYS: “I can’t forget what I saw. But I can’t pretend that Cersei won’t take back half the country the moment I march North.”"

Quoth Jon in the season 7 premiere: “[E]verything before the word ‘but’ is horseshit.”

Even though Daenerys rescued Jon from peril beyond the Wall, she remains less than fully committed to his cause because she has her own. Cersei has summoned the Golden Company to replenish her army, and we can bet that Jon’s true parentage will soon be revealed. Both of these things threaten Daenerys’ goal of sitting the Iron Throne.

Jon Snow is an ally, a man whom Daenerys loves…but who will Aegon Targaryen be to her? Jon may have forfeited his title as King in the North, but will she believe that he’ll forfeit his claim to the throne as well?

"DAENERYS: “I haven’t given you permission to leave.” JON: “With respect, Your Grace, I don’t need your permission. I am a king.”"

This seems like the sort of thing she’ll remember when Jon’s true origins are revealed. Daenerys knows that Jon didn’t want to bend the knee, and will remember the fight he put up when she finds out his claim threatens her own.

Then there’s the title of the season 7 finale: “The Dragon and the Wolf.” There are other titles like this one, and they all follow a similar pattern:

• “The Wolf and the Lion,” season 1: Stark vs. Lannister — Jaime and Ned’s confrontation.
• “The Lion and the Rose,” season 4: Tyrell vs. Lannister — Olenna conspires to murder Joffrey, paving the way for the Tyrells to take power via Margaery’s marriage to the more impressionable Tommen.
• “The Mountain and the Viper,” season 4: Martell vs. Clegane/Lannister — Oberyn attempts to get vengeance for his murdered sister, niece and nephew by killing the Mountain and by implicating Tywin, who gave the Mountain the order, in their deaths.

Following this pattern, “The Dragon and the Wolf” implies a rivalry between Targaryen and Stark, both within Jon’s heart as he struggles with her personal identity, and externally as a military conflict between him and Daenerys.

Another point to consider is that Daenerys still doesn’t know of Jon’s murder and resurrection, although between Melisandre and Jon there were plenty of opportunities to tell her. Should she learn of this, it will likely prove to be yet another point of contention between her and Jon. How will she react to the revelation that Jon was brought back to life by some divine intervention, for a higher purpose? Remember: Daenerys thinks she is special in part because “The world hadn’t seen a dragon in centuries until my children were born”…because she made something impossible happen. When Melisandre tells her of the prophecy of the Prince That Was Promised, Daenerys immediately intuits that it could apply to her. When happens when she finds out Jon Snow also did something impossible?