HBO is only going forward with one Game of Thrones prequel, but is it the right one?

Game of Thrones will air sometime in the first half of 2019, meaning that this time next year, the show will be over and done. But HBO is preparing for the end with a prequel series set during the Age of Heroes, thousands of years before any of the characters we know and love were born. “Taking place thousands of years before the events of Game of Thrones, the series chronicles the world’s descent from the golden Age of Heroes into its darkest hour…From the horrifying secrets of Westeros’s history to the true origin of the white walkers, the mysteries of the East, to the Starks of legend … it’s not the story we think we know,” reads the logline. Sounds exciting.

The show doesn’t have a name yet, but let’s call it The Long Night for simplicity’s sake; that the name A Song of Ice and Fire author George R.R. Martin prefers.

The Long Night wasn’t the only prequel series HBO was considering. At one point, it was developing as many as five separate ideas, each with a different screenwriter and each set during a different period in Martin’s richly imagined history. It was rumored that one other idea — Empire of Ash, a show all about the fall of the Valyrian Empire from writer Max Borenstein — was close to moving forward, but HBO programming president Casey Bloys shot down that idea when speaking with Entertainment Weekly at the Television Critics Association press tour:

"EW: “I heard Max Borenstein’s prequel script also had some interest. Is there any chance of a second GoT prequel pilot greenlight this year or are those on the shelf until you see how this turns out?”"

"Bloys: “No. The development process was very positive. Other people got busy, things didn’t come together … It’s fair to say we’re excited about this pilot, we’re hoping to shoot it in the first quarter of ’19, I don’t anticipate any movement on any other prequels until we [see what this one is].”"

So Empire of Ash isn’t happening, at least not right now. But considering the enthusiastic fan response when it leaked, I have to wonder: Did HBO choose the right prequel idea to develop?

Of course, we haven’t seen anything concrete about The Long Night yet — no footage, no casting notices, not even a detailed synopsis. But upon hearing the general outline, a potential problem stood out: Is this show going to be too similar to its big brother?

On one level, of course not; that’s stupid. It’ll have a different cast, and be set during a very different period of Westerosi history. At that point, the Seven Kingdoms were seven kingdoms in truth, independent parts of Westeros not beholden to any one ruler. The political aspects of the show, should it choose to explore them, will feel very different, and more primitive.

There’s also the fact that The Long Night will have new management. Game of Thrones showrunners David Benioff and Dan Weiss are moving on from this universe, and X-Men: Days of Future Past writer Jane Goldman is stepping in to shepherd the new show. It’s hard to tell what kind of tonal shift she’ll bring to the franchise, but if gives the show a different feel from its predecessor, I’m all for it.

But I worry that The Long Night will have the same basic structure as Game of Thrones. In the long run, Game of Thrones is a show about warring kingdoms too preoccupied with their own squabbles to realize that an existential threat is bearing down on them in the form of the White Walkers. With The Long Night tracing “the world’s descent from the golden Age of Heroes into its darkest hour,” it sounds like it could be more of the same, and that would be a shame.

Even the note about “the mysteries of the East” gives me pause; are we in for another side story on Essos that eventually merges with the main one on Westeros, as happened with Daenerys Targaryen?

To be fair, Bloys addressed some of these concerns in his EW interview. “The story’s time period, another 8,000 years before [the events in GoT], it’s far enough away so it feels like a different story, a different world, because it is,” he said. “[T]he kingdoms do not exist at this point. So it felt distinct.”

"We’re not trying to do Game of Thrones Part II. No one is going to duplicate what [GoT showrunners David Benioff and Dan Weiss] did. By setting it when we did, there’s a lot going on, a lot of dynamics that are related to Game of Thrones, but it’s different enough with its time period and characters [so as to not be] duplicative."

That’s definitely good to hear, but as George R.R. Martin is happy to remind us, words are wind. I’ll have to see something solid before putting my fears to rest.

On the other hand, Empire of Ash sounds like it truly was forging a new path. There was never any possibility of the White Walkers showing up here. And rather than being set in Westeros, it would take place on Essos and Sothoryos, at the height of a civilization capable of technological feats beyond anything we’ve seen on Game of Thrones. Yes, characters like Cersei live in luxury, but it’s nothing compared to the opulence of the ruling families of Valyria, just as medieval upper-class living paled in comparison to what the rulers of the Roman Empire enjoyed.

On top of that, the leaked information about Empire of Ash promised a cast of characters diverse in race and sexual orientation, an area where Game of Thrones falls short. The dynamic of this new show — an empire ruling over far-flung territories in different parts of the world — mirrors the relationship between the Roman Empire and its client states and gives all kinds of different characters good reason to be caught up in the same drama.

Also: a sky full of dragons; that’d be new.

Now, I should qualify that we’re not even 100% sure Empire of Ash existed in the first place, although the leak was very comprehensive. But if it’s not real, I understand why it had to be made up; it’s too good an idea to let lie.

Bloys’ comments don’t mean that Empire of Ash — or any of the other ideas HBO developed — isn’t happening ever, just that it’s not happening now. Instead, HBO has gone with what I think is the safer and more predictable idea. That doesn’t mean The Long Night won’t be terrific, or even that it won’t surprise me and be different from Game of Thrones as different can be, but it’s set up a situation where it’ll have to fight its way of its older brother’s shadow, rather than beginning in the light.

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