Movie theaters will die soon and we might as well get used to it

Disney has announced plans to focus more on streaming and less on theatrical releases, which means one thing: movie theaters are on their way out.

Recently, Disney announced a massive reorganization of its business, with much more emphasis put on streaming and much less on traditional theatrical releases. Instead of Disney movies being released into theaters as a matter of course before eventually showing up on the new streaming service Disney+, individual studio and network chiefs will now decide where their programming should go, “as opposed to somehow having it pre-determined that a movie is destined for theaters or a TV show is destined for ABC” (that’s according to Disney CEO Bob Chapek, speaking to CNBC).

So, for example, Disney could choose to release big upcoming movies like Thor: Love and Thunder or Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness into theaters, but if Marvel thinks it’d be better to send them straight to Disney+, it can do that. Why not give the people direct access to it? The streaming service already has over 60 million subscribers, far beyond what Disney had forecast it would have by this point in time, and with COVID-19 having shuttered theaters around the world, the home is best place to watch new movies now, whether they were once bound for theaters or not.

Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic will eventually end (or at least, I’m crossing my fingers, toes, arms and legs that it does), but when all this is over, Disney’s strategy will still be in place. After all, as Chapek told CNBC, it’s been coming for a while — the pandemic just sped it up. And that makes perfect sense. Why release something into theaters and run the risk that viewers may not be interested in actually going out to see it when you can release it on streaming and maybe draw in several thousand new subscribers who will pay by the month from now until who knows when?

Ever since Netflix released its first original shows, streaming was always the future of movies (and TV); it was just a matter of quickly studios would catch on. And that means we’re on the cusp of a sobering new reality: movie theaters will be a thing of the past.

Granted, that’s really only a problem for people of a certain age who, like me, had some of their fondest movie-going experiences in a theater. For the younger set raised watching most things on their phones and laptops, it probably won’t be much of a bother. And it’s not like all movies will go straight to streaming. I used Thor and Doctor Strange as examples above, but Disney probably knows that it can make a ton of money off releasing Marvel movies into cinemas, so I think they’ll proceed as planned…for now.

But smaller and mid-sized movies that aren’t part of huge franchises? Yeah, those are going straight to streaming. And that means that theaters will have less to entertain people with, which means fewer people will go, which means some will close down, which means even less revenue, which means more will close down, and so on until movie theaters become something akin to what drive-in theaters are today: a fun curiosity to visit every once in a while, but no longer a vital part of the movie distribution landscape.

You might accuse me of being apocalyptic; after all, Disney is the only studio who’s announced plans to do this. Other studios still plan to release their stuff to movie theaters. That should be enough to keep them afloat, right?

Maybe, but I doubt it. For one thing, if Disney is making this move, other studios probably won’t be far behind, although admittedly, none of them have a wildly successful streaming service like Disney+ as an alternative to theaters. (Sorry things aren’t going as well as you’d hoped, HBO Max.)

Still, they’ll adapt. And Disney is so powerful that it may be able to force this shift all on its own. Including its recent acquisition of 20th Century Fox, Disney accounts for nearly 40% of the U.S. film market. That’s almost half of movies now possibly skipping theaters and going straight to streaming. Even if people rush back to theaters post-COVID, Disney has enough clout to kick this trend into high gear all by itself.

So if you ask me, movie theaters are on the way out; they’ll still be around, but no longer the force they have been for the past century. I say this not in celebration or in mourning, but as a statement of something close to fact: movie theaters are dying, and we’re all gonna have to get used to it.

Heaven knows I’ll miss them. For introverts like me, going out to see a movie is one of the few ways I can go out without being at all uncomfortable. It’ll suck to lose that experience, but I don’t see a way around it, so I’d better start adjusting before it’s too late.

Besides, there will be benefits, too. With a guaranteed revenue stream from subscribers, streaming services will be more likely to let filmmakers try out interesting ideas and concepts, whereas movie theaters tend to encourage a one-size-fits-all approach to movie-making that flattens everything out. Disney is turning over the sands of the desert, and it will find diamonds. Sure, we’ll have to enjoy those diamonds at home, but better that than not have them at all.

Restaurants will come back in full force, though. I’m looking forward to that.