House of the Dragon vs The Wheel of Time vs The Lord of the Rings

First there was nothing. And then there was Game of Thrones.

Okay, that’s not true: the success of Game of Thrones was the end result of many trends that reached their apex in HBO’s fantasy epic, adapted from George R.R. Martin’s A Song of Ice and Fire novels. But just as Game of Thrones was born of these forces from the past, so are a crop of new fantasy shows born of it. The Witcher, Shadow and Bone, His Dark Materials…all of these shows and more got made because Game of Thrones proved to studio executives that big, splashy fantasy series could be hits, and there’s a lot more where that came from.

In particular, I’d like to focus on three big upcoming shows: House of the Dragon, HBO’s own follow-up to Game of Thrones; The Wheel of Time, Amazon’s adaptation of Robert Jordan’s 14-book fantasy series; and The Lord of the Rings, Amazon’s trip to J.R.R. Tolkien’s Middle-earth. Is the fantasy craze a passing fad or here to stay? With the amount of money being poured into these three projects, their success or failure will determine the answer to that question.

So how might each fare? Let’s dig in:

House of the Dragon

Pros

• Game of Thrones is still fresh in people’s minds. It was the biggest show of the past 10 years and people will definitely be curious to check out this prequel series.
• The source material is really good. House of the Dragon is based on Fire & Blood, a history of the Targaryen dynasty. It tells the story of the Dance of the Dragons, a Targaryen civil war that tore the realm apart over 100 years before the events of Game of Thrones. The cast is full of interesting characters and the plot provides both the shocking twists fans remember from the original show and the quiet, contemplative moments that made the big set pieces land.
• HBO knows how to make a show like this; they had eight seasons of practice with Game of Thrones. Co-showrunner Miguel Sapochnik directed some of the best episodes of the mother show, so the technical aspects should be no problem. Co-showrunner Ryan Condal is newer to the franchise, but he clearly has a ton of passion and know-how. With the institutional pipeline laid, House of the Dragon can hit the ground running.

Cons

• Game of Thrones is still fresh in people’s minds…particularly the ending, which was famously divisive. Did the ending of the mother show sour fans on giving the follow-up a try?
• The source material is thin. While Game of Thrones was based on a series of thick books, House of the Dragon is based on several chapters of one book. The writers will need to fill out the story with their own imaginations, which could be good or bad; it depends entirely on them.
• House of the Dragon looks promising, but are people tired of the Game of Thrones brand of fantasy that combines epic visuals and fantastical situations with grounded storytelling? Maybe they want something a little more traditional, in which case we have our next entrant:

House of the Dragon premieres on HBO sometime in 2022, probably on the earlier side.

The Wheel of Time

Pros

• The Wheel of Time is a beloved fantasy series that has been waiting for a proper screen adaptation since the first book debuted way back in 1990. At 14 books strong, the series is anything but thin; there’s a good meaty journey to adapt here, and one that fans are very hyped to see onscreen.
• As with House of the Dragon, the talent is strong with The Wheel of Time, particularly at the top: showrunner Rafe Judkins is clearly very passionate about the series. If fans can trust anyone with the stories of Rand, Nynaeve, Mat and all the rest, it’s him.
• The Wheel of Time is the only one of these shows to come out this year. As the first out of the gate, it has a chance to set the tone for the battles to come and score an early victory.

Cons

• The Wheel of Time’s story is huge…possibly too huge. The books are famous for getting a bit bloated in the middle, and the producers have their work cut out for them when deciding what needs to say and what should go, and things will definitely have to go.
• This will be Amazon’s first big show of this nature. It may have to learn the hard way what does and doesn’t work, and while the company certainly has the money to make a few mistakes, it can be hard to get over a bad first impression.
• While The Wheel of Time is beloved among fantasy readers, it’s less well-known among the general TV viewing public than Game of Thrones or The Lord of the Rings. That novelty could serve it well as viewers find a whole new world and cast of characters to fall in love with it, but it could also make it hard to build buzz for.

The Wheel of Time premieres on Amazon Prime Video this November.

The Lord of the Rings

Pros

• Whether you know it from Tolkien’s books or Peter Jackson’s movies, The Lord of the Rings is a huge name, probably the biggest fantasy has to offer. This show will have a built-in audience right from the start.
• While all of these shows have huge budgets, Amazon is spending an especially large amount on The Lord of the Rings: $465 million on the first season alone. You’ve got to tune in just for the spectacle, right?
• While HBO is bringing only the one epic fantasy show to this fight, Amazon has two, so if one falters, the other can pick up the slack.

Cons

• While this show is set in Middle-earth, it is not the story everyone is familiar with. This series takes place during the Second Age, thousands of years before The Lord of the Rings. Once again, this means that the writers are going to have to get creative, as there’s even less source material here than there is with House of the Dragon. That could be a boon or a curse; it depends on how the team plays it.
• Speaking of the team, they’re probably the least tested of any of the ones on this list. Sometimes newbies can think of things their more established colleagues wouldn’t, but with such a huge budget to spend, is this team wise enough to use it on the right things?
• With all of their resources, you figure Amazon might have spread them around to some different projects rather than make two epic fantasy series. The Lord of the Rings and The Wheel of Time might cancel each other out rather than make up for each other’s shortcomings.

The Lord of the Rings series premieres sometimes in 2022, probably on the later side.

The Lord of the Rings show is probably the one I’m most worried about: it has the most unknowns and a lot of the people in charge are relatively untested.

With HBO’s pedigree, I’d be shocked if House of the Dragon wasn’t at least competent; the question is whether it can stand on its own and be great. Finally, The Wheel of Time could be the shot in the arm the fantasy genre needs since it takes place in a world most TV viewers won’t be familiar with.

I don’t know who will win this coming fantasy war, but I am serious when I say that the outcome will determine how fantasy is treated on TV in the coming years. If they succeed, we can expect more good series for a long time to come; it may only take one big success. If they fail, Hollywood will move on to something else.

See you in the ring.