When is evidence not evidence? When it’s opinion, of course! I’m not here to try and dunk on anyone or drop a searing hot take. What I am here to do is write a rebuttal to a previous opinion piece by Joel Wagler here on WinterIsComing that argues that the Slog — the name fans sometimes give to a stretch in author Robert Jordan's The Wheel of Time epic fantasy series where the story slows down and reading becomes a chore — is a myth. Do I think that the Slog is real? Yes! I’m here to convince you using my two best friends: graphs and data. Without further ado, let’s get into it.
I am proud to say that I finished the main Wheel of Time series for the first time this year. After reading 14 volumes and thousands and thousands of pages, I am satisfied with the story that Robert Jordan began and Brandon Sanderson finished. The journey and the destination made my effort worth it. Indeed, it is also something to be proud of, because I heard from too many other readers that they ‘couldn’t get through the middle volumes and decided to not finish the series.’ Friends, co-workers, and my own partner have faced this dilemma and decided to enjoy what they have already read and not continue.
Typically, people who stop reading cite books 7-10 as the stopping point. That is the Slog. Oftentimes, disaffected readers will finish a book in the Slog and decide to not start the next. Readers, feeling at a low point in their enjoyment of the saga or perhaps becoming busy or interested in other things, decide to not expend the energy needed to continue.
So far, we agree on the definition of the Slog: Books 7-10. Joel Wagler writes quite persuasively of the strong parts of these books and why they are still worth your time. I agree that these books are overall worth reading if you are enjoying the journey and relate to these characters and their struggles. But now I have to contend with the available data about The Wheel of Time series. There is a very reputable site that amasses reader data and present it to laypeople so they can make their own decisions and come to their own conclusions. You may have heard of it: Goodreads.
Is it an old wives’ tale that Wheel of Time readers largely stop in the Slog? What are the numbers? Can we determine the largest drop-off of readers from volume to volume? What about average rating? While people qualitatively feel the Slog inside their brains, does that translate to their quantitative ratings? Can a novel that's part of the Slog still be a 4 or 5-star book?
The data of The Wheel of Time
While we’re discussing methodology, we should examine the quality of our data set. We know that these publicly available rating sites are vulnerable to organized campaigns of ‘review bombing,’ where people (probably with too much time on their hands and a chip on their shoulder) drop in with 1-star reviews to try and ruin the average rating.
A good example is The Doors of Stone, the third volume of Patrick Rothfuss’ Kingkiller Chronicles trilogy; it's been over 14 years since the second novel in the series was published, and The Doors of Stone may well never arrive. There is, however, a Goodreads page for The Doors of Stone and people are posting on it. Currently, The Doors of Stone has 5,389 ratings with an average of 3.54 stars out of 5, but a full 27% of the reviews are 1-star. Compare this to The Wise Man’s Fear, volume #2 of The Kingkiller Chronicle, which has a 4.55-star rating with 597,029 ratings, and 0% of those reviews are 1-star.
For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for The Doors of Stone. But the point is that if thousands of people can review a book that isn't even released, reviews are not always to be trusted. The good news is that pages for The Wheel of Time books on Goodreads are seemingly devoid of any review trolling. (Although I’m not sure it isn’t a matter of time until someone who had their feelings hurt by the TV series takes it out on the source material.)
The number of total ratings logged for The Wheel of Time series goes down precipitously over the course of the first five volumes as readers decide if they really want to embark on this 14-volume series or not. The data suggests that if you’ve made it through book 4, "The Shadow Rising," you’re more than likely to finish the whole series. Congratulations, you’re trapped now!
The sixth book in the series and the last before the Slog begins, Lord of Chaos, has a total of 187,811 ratings logged. Book 10, Crossroads of Twilight, the last book in the Slog, has 133,456 ratings, 54,355 fewer. That represents a loss of nearly 30% of all readers over the course of the Slog. Furthermore, the first six volumes of The Wheel of Time have around a 4.24 average star rating (out of 5), but volumes 7-10 only have an average of 3.94. This average rating jumps back up after the Slog, when Robert Jordan picks up the pace of events in book 11, Knife of Dreams, and Brandon Sanderson completes the series with the final three volumes; Sanderson took over following Jordan's death in 2007.
The difference is especially noticeable if you create a combined score by multiplying the total number of reviews logged by the average rating. You can see the low point in the series is between books 7-10.
What we can see from the breakdown of reviews for the entire series is that the proportion of 4-star reviews remains pretty steady for the first 11 volumes of the series, which are the ones written exclusively by Robert Jordan before Brandon Sanderson takes over; for that set, 4-star ratings make up about 31-38% of all reviews. Generally, people are enjoying reading the series.
However, the number of 5-star reviews decreases between books 7-10 by about 10% when compared to the first six volumes. Around 45% of reviews for the first six books in the series are five stars. That goes down to ~32% for books 7 through 10. So where do these 5-star reviews go during the Slog?
Within the Slog, the proportion of 2 and 3-star reviews increases dramatically. Before the Slog, 2-star reviews only accounted for 2-3% of all reviews, but for book 10, Crossroads of Twilight, that metric triples to 9%. The number of 3-star reviews doubles. My hypothesis is that readers who gave previous Wheel of Time books 5-star reviews resign themselves to giving Crossroads of Twilight four (or fewer) stars. Meanwhile, the fans who gave the previous books four-star ratings drop their scores to three or even two stars. Crossroads of Twilight also has the abysmal distinction of having 2% of all reviews being one-star, a nadir for the series.
But hark! There is hope around the corner!
Leaving the Slog
The scores for the last three books in the series, written by Brandon Sanderson from notes by Robert Jordan, are wildly great and represent a real light at the end of the tunnel. Brandon Sanderson is the hottest fantasy writer working today, and I would be remiss if I didn’t discuss his impact on The Wheel of Time. While total ratings logged bump up only slightly for these final three volumes, the average rating goes up significantly, with each volume beating the last. Furthermore, the number of 5-star ratings skyrockets, going from 57% to 60% to 69%. These volumes have a dearth of 1, 2, or 3-star ratings, with 90% of all ratings being four stars or above!
I have my own quibbles with the pacing of the last four books, but I think those problems carried over from the pacing of books 7-10. I find it unimaginable that Jordan planned to end the series at book 12, which was apparently the plan before Sanderson stepped in and split that book into three very long novels. I still don't think that the last three books provide the space necessary to completely tell the story with all of the weight and importance it needs.
Is there a slog in The Wheel of Time series? Data would say yes, there absolutely is. Readers rate these volumes on average lower than the novels that come before and after, dropping their scores from fours and fives to threes and fours. Some readers decide they don’t want to continue reading the series at this point. However, we can also see a huge resurgence in the regard for the final volume book written by Robert Jordan and the final three co-written by Brandon Sanderson. So, reader, if you are in or about to enter the Slog, have hope. There is a bright, shining light at the end of this tunnel.
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