Game of Thrones Theorycrafting: Southron Ambitions
“…Rickard Stark had great ambitions too. Southron ambitions…”
Lady Barbrey Dustin, A Dance with Dragons
With the Tower of Joy flashback having been filmed this week, and with both the North and the Riverlands looking like they’ll figure prominently in Game of Thrones Season 6, it’s time to take a look at the next big fan theory having to do with the Great Houses of Westeros. The last theory we examined, the Grand Northern Conspiracy, dealt with the Northern Lords and their plot to reinstall the Starks in Winterfell, and I firmly believe we will see some of it come to fruition in Season 6. It’s also important to remember that every House not from the North is considered a Southron House.
Barbrey Ryswell, by Delaney02©
Today we are going to talk about Southron Ambitions. In his blog, A Song of Ice and Fire University, Stefan Sasse—a contributing writer to Tower of the Hand—discusses how Lord Rickard Stark (Ned’s father) wanted to marry members of his family into Southron Houses to shore up his alliances with the big players in Westoers. We get our first hint of this from Lady Barbrey Dustin in A Dance with Dragons. Despite being from the North, Lady Dustin despises the Starks because Lord Rickard refused to let her marry his eldest son, Brandon, even though the two had some sort of an affair. Then, once Brandon and Lord Rickard were murdered at King Aerys’ court, Lady Barbrey thought she would have the chance to marry Ned, but the second eldest son of House Stark chose to honor the marriage pact his father had made for Brandon and married Catelyn Tully instead.
Lady Barbrey was then betrothed to Lord Willam Dustin, a bannerman of House Stark and a companion to Ned Stark, who was now the Lord of Winterfell. Lord Dustin was one of six companions who accompanied Ned to the Tower of Joy to help rescue Ned’s sister Lyanna. Sadly, Lord Dustin died in the ensuing skirmish with three Kingsguard knights. Ned did not return his bones to Lady Barbrey, and she has always resented the Starks for it.
Another important part of the Southron Ambitions puzzle are the House Maesters. Lord Rickard’s trusted Maester, Walys, is hated by Lady Barbrey and is said to have instigated the entire Southron Ambitions plot by suggesting the Southron marriages to Lord Rickard. This irked Lady Barbrey so much that she distrusts all Maesters now, and calls them ‘Grey Rats.’
Lord Rickard Stark
In his essay, Stefan Sasse notes that many of the Lords of the Great Houses were friends:
"“There are several great lords, all knowing each other better than usual because they fought together in the War of the Ninepenny Kings a few years prior. Jon Arryn, Steffon Baratheon, Rickard Stark, Hoster Tully and Tywin Lannister are all war buddies. With the exception of the latter, they seem to have taken kind of a friendship out of this war.”"
This is very important to the Southron Ambitions ambitions theory, as the companionship between Lords Stark, Arryn, Baratheon, and Tully appeared to go beyond friendship: in time, it started to look more like an alliance, an alliance that would only be strengthened by inter-marriage. And what would the Lords of these Great Houses have to ally against in peacetime? How about Aerys “the Mad King” Targaryen, the increasingly unstable ruler of the Seven Kingdoms? The Southron Ambitions theory holds that the Lords wanted Aerys out, and that their network of alliances was an attempt to shore up their political power and pressure Aerys to abdicate his crown to Rhaegar, his much saner son.
Here’s what that network of alliances looked like before Robert’s Rebellion broke out:
- Eddard and Robert were best friends being fostered in the Eyrie by Lord Jon Arryn in the Vale, which united Houses Stark, Baratheon, and Arryn.
- Brandon Stark was promised to Catelyn Stark in order to unite Houses Stark and Tully.
- Robert Baratheon was betrothed to Lyanna Stark in order to unite Houses Stark and Baratheon.
There was one piece missing: Tywin Lannister. If the Lords Stark, Tully, Arryn, and Baratheon could bring the Lannister patriarch into their conspiracy, they would be a mighty force indeed. True, Tywin was Hand of the King, but his relationship with Aerys was strained, and he could probably be won to the other side if wooed. To that end, Lord Hoster Tully began talks to betroth his daughter Lysa to the heir to Casterly Rock, Jaime Lannister. However, Aerys threw a wrench in that plan by making Jaime a member of his Kingsguard, meaning that he could never marry. It’s likely that Aerys knew about some of the plots forming against him, and this move may have been his attempt to keep Tywin out of the network of alliances. If so, it ended up backfiring later.
Aerys II Targaryen The Mad King
Now, to understand the cunning and the madness, of Aerys Targaryen, one need look no farther than the Tourney at Harrenhal. Ser Oswell Whent of the Kingsguard, a close friend of Prince Rhaegar Targaryen, convinced his brother Lord Walter Whent to host a grand tournament. It was said that the rewards offered by Lord Walter were three times greater than those offered by Lord Tywin Lannister in the tourney at Lannisport to honor Prince Viserys’ birth. Hundreds of challengers attended, including representative from all the major Houses of Westeros.
According to the theory, Prince Rhaegar knew and supported the conspirators’ plans, and was going to use this great gathering to hash out the details of his rise to kingship. Jaime Lannister was raised to the Kingsguard at the age of 15 at Harrenhal, but his father Lord Tywin did not attend. His relationship with King Aerys had been souring for some time. However, after Aerys appointed Jaime Lannister to his Kingsguard, Lord Tywin left the tourney for Casterly Rock in a huff, and the plan was stalled. WiC commenter Jstar correctly points out that Lord Tywin Lannister did not attend the Tourney at Harrenhal. From A Storm of Swords, Bran II, The Knight of the Laughing Tree tale:
"“The king himself was there, with his son the dragon prince. The White Swords had come, to welcome a new brother to their ranks. The storm lord was on hand, and the rose lord as well. The great lion of the rock had quarreled with the king and stayed away, but many of his bannermen and knights attended all the same. ”"
House Tyrell was a known Targaryen loyalist and therefore could not be trusted, and though Maester Walys was a Flowers from the Reach, he did not try to bring House Hightower of Oldtown into the alliance, probably because of House Tyrell.
This is where things began to fall apart for the Southron Ambitions Alliance. With Lord Tywin brooding in Casterly Rock over the loss of his heir (he still had Tyrion, but we all know how Tywin felt about him), the backing of the Westerlands was uncertain. To make an already precarious situation worse, Prince Rhaegar absconded with Lady Lyanna Stark (or the two ran away together, depending on who you believe) to the Tower of Joy in Dorne. Brandon Stark, thinking Rhaegar had taken his sister to King’s Landing, rode to the capital city and demanded the prince come out and fight him for his sister’s freedom and honor. Aerys took this as treason and detained the heir to House Stark, and summoned Lord Rickard to King’s Landing to answer for his son’s crimes against the crown.
Once there, madness took hold of Aerys, and he commanded Lord Rickard to be roasted alive in his armor, while his son Brandon watched helplessly, as he was bound with a cord around his neck and a longsword just out of reach. Brandon strangled himself trying to get to the sword and save his father. King Aerys then demanded that Lord Jon Arryn send the heads of Ned Stark and Robert Baratheon to King’s Landing. Lord Arryn refused, called his banners, and Robert’s Rebellion began. However, the Southron Ambitions Alliance was all but over. Hotter heads (King Aerys, Brandon Stark, Robert Baratheon, and Rhaegar at the Tourney) had prevailed over cooler ones (Rickard Stark, Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully, and Rhaegar at most other times).
Brandon Stark strangles himself while his father burns to death.
With Lord Tywin out and Lord Rickard dead, Lord Hoster made a marriage pact with Lord Arryn for his daughter Lysa’s hand. This united House Tully and House Arryn. The young lord of House Stark honored his father’s pact and married Catelyn Tully, thus uniting Houses Tully and Stark, but instead of five Noble Houses backing a beloved prince’s bid for the throne, they were now three Noble Houses united by marriage, and marching to war. Lord Steffon Baratheon had died at sea, in sight of his home at Storm’s End as his ship sank.
Robert Baratheon defeats Rhaegar Targaryen at the Battle of the Trident
Robert Baratheon, incensed by what he considered a kidnapping and probable rape of Lyanna by Rhaegar, called his banners, as he was the Lord of House Baratheon in the wake of Steffon’s death, and he and his best friend Lord Eddard went to war. When the bulk of the war was over, Ned and his six companions (including Lord Dustin) rode to the Tower of Joy to rescue Lyanna. There Ned met Ser Arthur Dayne, Ser Gerold Hightower, and Ser Oswell Whent, three famed Kingsguard knights who stayed at the Tower of Joy to guard Lady Lyanna, despite their prince dying on the Trident.
Ned brought his sister’s bones home and buried her in the crypts below Winterfell, and there he stayed, in the North. Lord Jon Arryn became Hand of the King to Robert, who took up the crown in place of Aerys. However, the Southron Ambitions Alliance was all but through, and might as well have been buried in the Winterfell crypts alongside Lyanna’s bones.
Lyanna is buried in the Winterfell Crypts
Next: Game of Thrones’ Wolf Unit In Peñíscola (UPDATE: Varys, Missandei, and Tyrion in the area)