House of the Dragon season 3 is off to a rough start for Daemon Targaryen, and it gets even worse in episode 3, "Rhaenyra Triumphant." Daemon makes another crucial mistake that is bound to come back to bite him in the very near future.
In the beginning of the episode, Daemon (Matt Smith) meets Ormund Hightower (James Norton) in the field and makes him swear fealty to Rhaenyra (Emma D'Arcy). He also orders the Hightower force to return to Oldtown, but before he leaves, Daemon also makes him hand over Daeron (Benamin Evan Ainsworth), the youngest son of Alicent (Olivia Cooke) and brother of Aemond (Ewan Mitchell), Aegon (Tom Glynn-Carney), and Helaena (Phia Saban). Daeron has been serving as a squire for Ormund, and Rhaenyra wants to take him captive with Aemond and Aegon in the wind. This is where Daemon goes wrong.
As we learn at the end of the episode, Ormund double-crossed Daemon and gave him a fake Daeron. Instead of surrendering, Ormund and his army take the town of Tumbleton and embed themselves within the city, which basically nullifies Rhaenyra's ability to send in Daemon, Ulf the White (Tom Bennett), Hugh the Hammer (Kieran Bew), and Addam of Hull (Clinton Liberty) and their dragons to destroy the Hightower army.
It also means that the real Daeron, the one person who can challenge Rhaenyra's claim to the throne if Aemond and Aegon are dead, is with Ormund and his army.

Daemon keeps making huge mistakes in House of the Dragon season 3
Ryan Condal and the House of the Dragon writers definitely took a swing with the Daeron/Fake Daeron twist and reveal. Honestly, it wasn't shocking to me because I knew who Daeron was the second we saw him in the season premiere with Ormund, but it added a layer of shock value to the episode.
It also highlighted a concerning trend in House of the Dragon season 3. Daemon has become a massive liability.
So far in season 3, Daemon has created an enemy out of Alys Rivers (Gayle Rankin) in Harrenhal, who just had a chance to kill Aemond. Did she do it? She sure would have if Daemon promised her Harrenhal, as she asked.
Then, later, Daemon lies to Rhaenyra about the rider who bonded with Sheepstealer to protect his daughter, Rhaena (Phoebe Campbell).
Then, to cap it all off, Daemon gets duped by Ormund and brings back a fake Daeron, leaving the real Daeron with his enemy and allowing them to take the town of Tumbleton. On top of it all, and perhaps the most egregious oversight, Daemon forgets or doesn't think to take Daeron's dragon, Tessarion, the Blue Queen.
Now, Tessarion isn't a big dragon by any means. I believe she's younger and not battle-ready yet. Still, Sheepstealer just caused a ruckus in the Battle of the Gullet simply by getting in the way, and it led to Jace's death. You're going to leave a dragon with the army of the person who was on their way to King's Landing to kill you and the queen? It makes no sense, Daemon.
Sure, Daemon is also winning battles and wiping out the Lannisters, and he delivered King's Landing and the Red Keep for Rhaenyra. It was her plan that he helped execute by his City Watch connections and ability to slay some guards. But, man, my guy is not making good choices.

What happens now?
Well, Ormund committed treason by double-crossing Daemon and Rhaenyra. He's clearly decided that he's not going down without a fight, for better or for worse. Based on my knowledge of the story, we're headed for a massive showdown in Tumbleton, but there have already been key changes to the story that have me thinking things are not going to play out exactly as I might have expected heading into the season.
Now, Rhaenyra, if she were just, would send the fake Daeron home and help save his mother, but she's probably dead by now. Daemon is going to take this loss on the chin, and he's going to have to make some magic happen if he's going to stop the Hightowers, the richest house in Westeros, and their army from creating another problem for the Black in the early days of Rhaenyra's reign.
On top of all that, Rhaenyra has to kill Aemond, Aegon, and now Daeron to stop anyone from actually challenging her claim to the Iron Throne.
In other words, this is a huge mess. It's not all Daemon's fault, but it's like 90% his fault. He could have burned the entire Hightower army in the field had Rhaenyra given the order, so she takes some of the blame. The execution of his strategy is just tragic. It's like they forget we're playing the game of thrones here and how ruthless it is.
Daemon's going to have to step up and make some better choices if he's going to keep Rhaenyra in power throughout the rest of House of the Dragon season 3. We'll just have to wait and see if that actually happens.
