Last week was a big one for Westeros, but it may have only been a precursor to even larger things yet to come. HBO has officially renewed A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms and House of the Dragon for another season each, meaning viewers will be satiated by new Game of Thrones franchise shows until at least 2028. That's A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms season 2 and House of the Dragon season 4, for those keeping track.
This news is exciting enough as it is, but in addition, HBO CEO Casey Bloys cast doubt on the idea that House of the Dragon will end with its fourth season, which was widely reported to be the plan because of comments by showrunner Ryan Condal confirming it. But according to Deadline, Condal and his writers are currently working on season 4, and he will make the final decision about House of the Dragon's future once those scripts are complete.
"For all of our shows, we generally try to leave it to the creators to make that decision," Bloys said. "We’ll work with them. Sometimes, people will work through the season to feel like, ‘Does it feel like a natural end? Does it not?’ So, I don’t have updates for you on any of that. But when we do, I’ll let you know.”
This raises a fair question: does the source material for House of the Dragon actually have enough left to justify stretching things out into a fifth season? We're going to dig into that topic today, but in order to do so, we have to get into MAJOR SPOILERS from Fire & Blood, the book by George R.R. Martin on which the show is based.
Does House of the Dragon have enough material for season 5?
The short answer to the question of whether House of the Dragon could feasibly extend past season 4 is yes, I firmly believe there is more than enough in the book to justify the extra season. Truthfully, I've been concerned for a while now that House of the Dragon was going to have to make major cuts to fit everything into four seasons, so it might actually be ideal.
This wasn't always so. Early predictions for the overall arc of the series put the Battle of the Gullet near the end of season 2, followed promptly by Rhaenyra's capture of King's Landing, just like in the book. And indeed, the Gullet at least was originally slated for season 2, but was forced back into season 3 when HBO ordered House of the Dragon to cut its second season back from 10 episodes to eight. Because of this, the overall flow that originally seemed fine for four seasons has been thrown totally out of whack.
Now, season 3 has to spend its first few episodes covering ground that we should have seen in season 2. It's not yet clear how that will affect the overall narrative and where things leave off in season 3, but obviously there will be some effect.
Most of the major events of the Dance of the Dragons are still to come. There's the Battle of the Red Fork, the Fishfeed, and the Butcher's Ball in the Riverlands, all of which we're expecting to see in season 3. There's a whole campaign in the Reach that includes the Battle of the Honeywine and the first and second battles of Tumbleton. There's a duel above the God's Eye lake between Daemon Targaryen and his nephew Aemond. And of course, there's Rhaenyra's attempt to rule King's Landing, which eventually leads to the Storming of the Dragonpit and her flight to Dragonstone, where the war enters its final phase.
Then after all that, there's an extended epilogue referred to as the Hour of the Wolf, after its chapter title in Fire & Blood, where Cregan Stark comes down to King's Landing and tries to restore order in the bloody wake of the war.
And I'm just giving the broad strokes here. There are some events that are likely to be cut out based on changes the show has already made, like the tragedy at Bitterbridge where young Maelor Targaryen is torn apart by a mob. The show cut Maelor, so it's very possible we won't see that scene play out on screen. But most of what I listed above are the events that are too integral to cut. As you can see, House of the Dragon has a lot of story left to tell.
What will happen in House of the Dragon season 3 and 4?
Based on behind-the-scenes leaks and my own analysis of the source material, I'd guess that we're going to see most of the Riverlands campaign happen in season 3, as well as Rhaenyra's rule of King's Landing and the campaign in the Reach, culminating with the first Battle of Tumbleton. It's possible the show go even farther and shoot for the second Battle of Tumbleton as a finale, since it's a tragedy of the highest order with betrayal and multiple dragonrider deaths, but I think that might be a tall order. Regardless, even if we see both Tumbletons in season 3, there's still a lot of story left to go.
With everything we either know or reasonably suspect will happen in season 3, a few events I don't expect with some certainty are the Battle above the God's Eye, the Storming of the Dragonpit, Rhaenyra's return to King's Landing, and everything that follows. There's already so much going on in season 3 that I think it's extremely likely the show will save all of that material for season 4. And in my opinion, the second Battle of Tumbleton as well.
But could all that even reasonably fit into one season? That's the big question the show now faces. From the start, I've imagined Rhaenyra's return to Dragonstone landing somewhere around the middle of season 4, which would leave the final few episodes of the show to cover the fallout and resolution. The epilogue to the Dance of the Dragons is long and complex, and while the show doesn't need to cover every single bit of it, it does at least need to do the Hour of the Wolf and a few other bits to provide a satisfactory ending. Given that Cregan Stark has already appeared in HBO's series, I think that's a safe bet.
Ultimately, I think that Condal and his team taking their time to see what works most naturally for House of the Dragon is the right course. Their original four season plan has been altered by changes in the industry outside their control, which rearranged their sophomore season. At this point, the best thing they can do is feel out what works best for the narrative ahead of them. It's fortunate that the show has a studio partner in HBO that will give it all the leeway it needs to find that sweet spot, and hopefully bring about a solid conclusion to the network's first Game of Thrones spinoff.
There's plenty to look forward to while the writers figure that out, though. The other Thrones spinoff, A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, premieres its first season on January 18, 2026. After that, House of the Dragon returns for season 3 sometime in the summer.