Sometime this month, filming will begin on House of the Dragon season 3. The show has a lot to prove this season, after its second ended on a series of cliffhangers that left more fans frustrated than satisfied. But judging by the source material ahead, this could be an epic season for HBO's Game of Thrones prequel series.
As with the original Game of Thrones show, House of the Dragon is based on the works of George R.R. Martin, and you know what that means: expect heads to roll. Martin is notorious for killing off characters in his stories. We've already seen plenty of deaths in House of the Dragon, but there will undoubtedly be more to come. We know this because the entire Dance of the Dragons civil war is laid out in the book Fire & Blood; the fates of characters like Daemon Targaryen, Rhaenyra Targaryen, and Alicent Hightower are already set, unless the show deviates wildly from the source book.
The other reason we know there are lots of deaths on the way is because, well, these characters are historical figures in the world of ice and fire. As such, we can safely say every single House of the Dragon character will die before the time of Daenerys Targaryen and Jon Snow. But who will live to ripe old age, and who will meet an untimely end? That is the question.
Today, we're going to talk about Rhaenyra Targaryen, the Black Queen who is vying for the Iron Throne against her half-brother Aegon II Targaryen and his Green faction. Played by Emma D'Arcy, Rhaenyra is the beating heart of the series. It's hard to imagine House of the Dragon without her front and center...but this story is a tragedy. And thanks to the book, we have a pretty good idea of where Rhaenyra's story is headed.
FULL SPOILERS for Fire & Blood beyond this point.
How does Rhaenyra Targaryen die?
Of all the character in the Dance of the Dragons civil war, Rhaenyra has one of the craziest, most devastating story arcs. She begins as a young, bright-eyed princess who is named heir to the Seven Kingdoms, but over the course of the story transforms into a bitter, paranoid woman whose choices lead her to a bloody end.
Following her grief over a horrific loss at the Battle of the Gullet, Rhaenyra leads her dragonriders to King's Landing, where she finally takes the city and claims the Iron Throne. Her rule is brief. While at first it seems like she may be a liberator who frees the city from the grip of its previous regent, her half-brother Aemond, Rhaenyra ultimately doesn't do a great job of overseeing the city. Unrest grows in the streets, stoked by a fanatic known as the Shepherd. Meanwhile in the castle, Rhaenyra makes one paranoid decision after another, alienating herself from her allies and her subjects.
Eventually, the simmering unrest in King's Landing boils over in one of the most terrible events in the history of House Targaryen: the Storming of the Dragonpit, where five dragons are killed by an angry mob of peasants and religious fanatics. Rhaenyra's dragon Syrax is one of the dragons killed.
Following the Storming of the Dragonpit, Rhaenyra is forced to flee King's Landing and surrender the Iron Throne to the mob. She goes to the only place she thinks will be safe: Dragonstone. Unfortunately, her ancestral seat has already fallen to her enemies, unbeknownst to her.
Who kills Rhaenyra Targaryen in Fire & Blood?
Much changed on Dragonstone in secret before Rhaenyra's return: her half-brother Aegon, horribly burned and crippled from the Battle of Rook's Rest, snuck into the castle and took it with the help of Ser Alfred Broome, another lord who felt spurned by Rhaenyra's disregard of his counsel.
By the time Rhaenyra arrives, Dragonstone is fully under Aegon's control. Rhaenyra is promptly captured and brought to the courtyard to be sentenced by Aegon and his dragon, Sunfyre. Aegon wastes no time in having Rhaenyra put to death; the dragon Sunfyre burns her alive, and devours her.
After this, Aegon II finally leaves Dragonstone and recaptures King's Landing for himself. He doesn't rule it for long, however...but that's a story for another day.
Will Rhaenyra die in House of the Dragon season 3?
So that's how the fate of Rhaenyra plays out in the book. But what about the TV show? Will she die in the same manner? Could it even happen in season 3?
Obviously we can't answer whether she will die in exactly the same way (the safe money is that the show will change things, as it has with so many elements of the story), but I do think we can safely say that we won't see Rhaenyra's demise in season 3. She dies around 3/4 of the way through the Dance of the Dragons; there's still plenty of story left after Sunfyre chomps her to bits. But her death signals the beginning of the end for the saga.
We know for sure that season 3 is starting with the "beastly" Battle of the Gullet. If I had to guess, we'll see Rhaenyra take King's Landing soon after, and then likely spend the rest of the season ruling it. I would be surprised if the Storming of the Dragonpit goes down in season 3, because just as with Rhaenyra's death, there are a few other important events that have to happen first, like a bloody duel for Rhaenyra's husband Daemon at the God's Eye.
If I had to guess, I'd say we'll see Rhaenyra die around halfway through season 4, or even a little later than that. In terms of the story, it would be ideal for the television series to leave itself a generous off-ramp after Rhaenyra's death to wrap up this complicated battle for the Iron Throne. But even if they push her demise closer to the very end of the series, she's almost certainly safe for season 3.
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