The second season of HBO's Game of Thrones prequel show House of the Dragon wrapped up earlier this year, ushering in a long night through which fans will have to wait for more episodes. We've heard that preproduction began on October 31. Now a new rumor making the rounds says that actual shooting will begin in March of 2025.
Rumor or not, this does more or less line up with what we've heard from folks like House of the Dragon showrunner Ryan Condal, who's said that expected shooting to start "earlyish 2025." March is on the tail end of earlyish, so it checks out.
The show has a lot of ground to cover after the second season ended on many matters unresolved. Criston Cole and the Greens were marching on the Riverlands while Daemon Targaryen and his army of rivermen waited to meet them. King Aegon had fled King's Landing and a fleet of Triarchy ships was sailing for Westeros, intending to attack Rhaenyra Targaryen's stronghold on Dragonstone or Corlys Velaryon's home of Driftmark. Rhaenyra had drafted several peasants to ride dragons, although they had yet to be tested in battle. Hopefully, season 3 will hit the ground running.
But it won't be for a while. Even if the shooting began on January 1, we wouldn't be seeing new episodes until 2026. That's worrying to some fans like Quinn The GM, who wrote on Twitter/X, "I truly think if anything is going to kill House of the Dragon it’s the two-year gaps between seasons. Ending the show in August and not filming until March is NUTS."
It's true that two-year waits have become the norm for big-budget fantasy and sci-fi shows like House of the Dragon, The Wheel of Time and The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power. Is that indeed killing the show?
Well, in the case of House of the Dragon, ratings did fall a bit between seasons 1 and 2, but not by much; by any measure, the show remains a big ratings success for HBO. So at first blush, the answer is no, two-year waits do not necessarily kill shows. Just looks at a series like Stranger Things; that show has only gotten more popular over the years despite fans occasionally having to wait three years between seasons.
Also, HBO is going to try and tide fans over in 2025 by debuting a new Game of Thrones prequel called A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms, so even if they can't see what happens next on House of the Dragon next year, they'll at least get to return to Westeros. Still, with season 2 of House of the Dragon not being as warmly received as season 1, the show could be at higher risk during this next waiting period.
A lot of fans would like shooting to begin earlier, and I think it's reasonable to ask why things take so long, especially since new seasons of Game of Thrones came out once a year for most of its run. I suspect the answer mainly has to do with House of the Dragon being a more complicated show to shoot than Game of Thrones. While the original series worked its way up to mounting fabulously complicated battle scenes with expensive special effects, House of the Dragon started there. All those dragons take time and money to animate.
It's also true that HBO didn't renew House of the Dragon for season 3 until season 2 was already airing, just as it didn't renew the show for season 2 until season 1 had started. Would it have made a difference had they renewed the show earlier? We can't know for sure, but I have to think so. If you want good news on that score, it sounds like the plan is to make two more seasons of House of the Dragon to wrap things up. If that plan is already is place, maybe seasons 3 and 4 can be shot a little closer in time, which could shorten the wait times.
Finally, and this one is a big stretch, it's possible that filming on House of the Dragon season 3 is getting started a little later than planned to give the writers the opportunity to adjust things in response to public criticism from Fire & Blood author George R.R. Martin, who sounds none too happy about the show straying far from his source material. But that's almost certainly wishful thinking on my part.
In any case, expect A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms season 1 one in 2025 and House of the Dragon season 3 in 2026.
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