A Game of Thrones movie about Valyria could set up HBO's Aegon the Conqueror show

Earlier this month, we learned that HBO is in very early development on a Game of Thrones movie. This news came via The Hollywood Reporter, who had discovered that the studio is quietly working on a film. A of right now, we don't have a writer, director, or plot outline; the literal only thing we know about the Game of Thrones movie is that HBO is in the very early stages of making it. And considering how many Thrones spinoffs the studio has tinkered with over the years, there's no guarantee it'll actually get made or that we'll even learn anymore about it.

But perhaps that's a bit too pessimistic. We've speculated a fair amount about what a Game of Thrones movie might be about, because we know so little about it that we can get fully into theory mode. But it's possible there's another piece to this puzzle that's been sitting right in plain sight. If you'll allow me to put on my tinfoil cap, I think there's a pretty exciting possibility for what this Thrones movie could be about...and if it's true, it means that we actually heard about this film for the first time last year in an entirely different report.

Back in April of 2023, Variety learned that HBO was developing a series about Aegon the Conqueror, the first Targaryen king of Westeros who united the Seven Kingdoms under his rule. (Minus Dorne, which resisted Aegon's rule and wasn't formally brought into the fold until centuries later.) According to Variety, this show is in the very early stages of development, but in the months since, we've learned that The Batman Part II writer Mattson Tomlin is working on the script for the series. So it seems like things are moving along for Aegon Targaryen and his sister-wives Rhaenys and Visenya.

The Variety report also contained a very interesting detail: that this new Aegon the Conqueror show might have a feature film component. "i.e. HBO and Warner Bros. would produce a feature film that would then lead into the potential series, though plans remain in flux at present."

If that's true, and HBO was considering making a movie which leads into an Aegon's Conquest show, then perhaps we've already got the clues we need to puzzle out what this newly reported Game of Thrones movie could be. My guess? The movie is about the Doom of Valyria.

What is the Doom of Valyria?

The Doom of Valyria is a historical event which occurred around 400 years before the events of Game of Thrones, and a little less than 100 years before Aegon's Conquest of Westeros. At the time, Valyria was the unrivaled superpower in the world of A Song of Ice and Fire, having conquered nearly the entirety of western Essos, including most all of the Free Cities, the Ghiscari slaver cities, the kingdoms built along the River Rhoyne, and more. It was ruled by houses of dragonlords, with hundreds of dragons, powerful sorcerers, and armies of soldiers and slaves under their yoke. Valyria's dominance was uncontested...until a cataclysm struck at the Freehold itself and wiped it out in a single day: the Doom.

The Valyrian Freehold was built on a peninsula and nestled between 14 mighty volcanoes, known as the Fourteen Flames, which were believed to be instrumental to the empire's success. While the exact details of the Doom are shrouded in mystery, the one part that we do know is that the Fourteen Flames all erupted at the same time, scorching Valyria with fires so hot that even dragons were burned out of the sky. But why did those volcanoes erupt? Was it divine justice, or something more sinister?

The World of Ice and Fire speculates about the exact nature of the relationship between the Valyrians and the Fourteen Flames. Some Westerosi historians say that the volcanoes were kept tame by the tireless work of incredible mages, and posit that perhaps all the backstabbing of the Valyrian nobles eventually killed off too many of those sorcerers, leading to the violent eruption. Another theory is that Valyria, which was infamous for enslaving the people of its neighboring nations, was actually using those slaves in dark rituals to keep the volcanoes in check. Once they ran out of other nations they could easily enslave, the magic failed and the volcanoes erupted. Others still believe it was a natural event. The truth remains lost to time.

Whatever the cause of the Doom of Valyria, it left a massive power vacuum in Essos. Wars raged for the next several centuries as the Free Cities vied for dominance after the sudden demise of the Freehold.

Why the Doom of Valyria would make sense as a movie

Before we discuss how the Doom related directly to Aegon the Conqueror, let's pause to consider why it would make way more sense as a movie than a television show. Right now, one of the biggest challenges facing HBO's Game of Thrones prequel House of the Dragon is budget. Author George R.R. Martin has a wild imagination, and bringing dozens of dragon to the small screen gets costly fast. House of the Dragon season 2's budget has been reported at $20 million an episode, a number I have good reason to believe is actually lowballing the final cost of those eight episodes of television.

A huge slice of that budget goes to the dragons; House of the Dragon has shown over a dozen of the beasts so far, and there are still more to come. According to showrunner Ryan Condal, there are 17 dragons around at this point in Westerosi history. The Dance of the Dragons civil war happens at the height of Targaryen power in the Seven Kingdom, so that's the most dragons they'll ever have at one time.

But there are hundreds of dragons alive during the Doom of Valyria. To make it work on television, HBO would have to be extremely creative and judicious about when it showed dragons and how many of them it could afford to give the sort of detailed treatment they get in House of the Dragon. And that's not even taking into account the landscape and city-state of Valyria itself, which consists of shining towers set amidst smoking volcanoes, surrounded by the sea. Oh, and don't forget the Valyrian sorcerers, who use magic way more freely than any culture we see in Game of Thrones or House of the Dragon.

Frankly, there are just a lot of ways that the budget on a Doom of Valyria show could get outrageous. The alternative, to pare it down and make it an intimate affair, restricted to castle corridors like House of the Dragon often is, would be a disservice. That works for HOTD because of the nature of the show, which is an intimate family political drama in a setting we're largely familiar with.

That wouldn't work nearly as well with the Doom of Valyria. The Freehold has never been properly explored in Martin's books; all we know about it we know from historical accounts. So far, the author hasn't given any indication that will change, since he has other priorities like writing the long-awaited sixth A Song of Ice and Fire book, The Winds of Winter. That means that any screen depiction of the Doom would be the first and possibly only time that fans will actually get to see what the Valyrian Empire was like during its prime. There's no point in doing a Doom of Valyria show unless you actually get to show Valyria, otherwise it would make more sense for HBO to stick to the more recognizable locales of Westeros.

By doing the Doom as a movie instead of a TV show, those budgetary concerns would become much more manageable. Instead of eight to 10 hours of television, HBO and Warner Bros. Discovery could dump the same amount of money into a two to three hour movie, which would give them way more flexibility to make Valyria and its legions of dragons look as magnificent onscreen as they deserve.

Why the Doom of Valyria would be a perfect lead-in to an Aegon the Conqueror show

So that's why I think it would make sense for HBO and Warner Bros. Discovery to do the Doom as a movie. But why would they tie it to an Aegon the Conqueror show? After all, Aegon the Conqueror isn't even alive when the Doom happens.

As with most Westeros-related things, the answer lies in the source material. Before the Doom hits Valyria, the dragonlords establish an outpost far to the west, near a foreign continent they have set their eyes on: Westeros. That outpost is Dragonstone. It was the Valyrians who built the mighty Citadel there, from which Rhaenyra Targaryen will one day wage her war for the Iron Throne in House of the Dragon.

Back in the heyday of Valyria, the Targaryens are just one great house among many, and not even a particularly strong one. But shortly before the Doom, a Targaryen named Daenys the Dreamer has a prophetic vision, warning her that disaster is coming for the Freehold. So she and her father Aenar Targaryen set sail for Dragonstone, where they begin new lives at the very edge of Valyria's territory.

Daenys' dream comes to pass and Valyria is wiped off the map. For several more generations, the Targaryens live on Dragonstone, building up their strength and making alliances. It's here that Aegon comes into the picture. He and his sister-wives Visenya and Rhaenys are the great-great-great-grandchildren of Daenys the Dreamer.

I could see it making total sense to do the Doom of Valyria as a film, then leave off with Daenys and the other Targaryens setting up shop on Dragonstone. Maybe one of them has a kid or two. And then, HBO could bring us back to Dragonstone with a television show to meet their descendants, Aegon, Visenya, and Rhaenys, as they set off to conquer Westeros. House of the Dragon has even introduced a new element to the story where it was a prophetic dream from Aegon which led to his campaign to unite Westeros, so there's a strong parallel to be made between how Daenys' dream saves the Targaryen family and how Aegon's saves Westeros.

They could even do something really crazy and condense the timeline, so that Aegon is Daenys' son, and the Doom of Valyria movie ends with him being born. I don't know that I would necessarily like that twist on the source material, but there are options HBO could easily explore to tie Aegon and the Doom tighter together.

Don't expect an official announcement about the Game of Thrones movie anytime soon

For now though, all this is speculation. I imagine HBO will take its time with any official announcement related to the movie or its Aegon the Conqueror series. After all, there are two Game of Thrones spinoffs underway already, so it probably wouldn't make sense for the studio to launch a new one until after House of the Dragon has ended its run, at least. That won't be that long; House of the Dragon reportedly began pre-production on its third season late last month, and is only expected to run for four total.

And before more House of the Dragon, before Aegon the Conqueror or The Doom of Valyria or whatever else HBO and Warner Bros. Discovery has in store for fans of Westeros, there will be A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms. That show adapts George R.R. Martin's Dunk & Egg novellas, set around 90 years before Game of Thrones. Dragons are extinct by the time of that series, so it'll be a very different sort of show to House of the Dragon. Its first six-episode season premieres in 2025.

For my part, I hope HBO takes its time with whatever it's got cooking for this film. If it's in the name of portraying something like the Doom of Valyria well onscreen, there's no need to rush things. We'll have plenty of ways to spend time in Westeros in the meantime.

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