House of the Dragon season 3 is easily the biggest show of the summer. After, potentially, the best season of the Game of Thrones prequel, one would assume HBO would want to put the pedal to the metal and get House of the Dragon season 4 out as soon as possible.
That's not necessarily the case, though. We already know that House of the Dragon season 4 won't premiere on HBO until 2028, at the earliest, but that's not really a bad thing. There are a few key reasons that it's actually a good thing that HBO allows Ryan Condal and the creative team to take the time they need to make these seasons as good as they can possibly be.
Currently, House of the Dragon season 4 is not in production. Condal and the creative team have written the season, but they have not started shooting yet.
I've noticed a lot of fans complaining about the long wait between seasons, and I get it. I do! In a perfect world, I would love to see new seasons of House of the Dragon and other fantasy shows every single year. I wish we didn't have to wait three years between seasons of Stranger Things. I'm simply looking at the situation as objectively as I can. It takes a long time to make great shows, and House of the Dragon is a great show. It takes time to make that happen.
In scope and scale, House of the Dragon is the most ambitious story on TV
Compared to other shows on TV right now, House of the Dragon is the riskiest story for HBO to tell.
There are so many moving parts with a show like House of the Dragon. Yes, they have controlled sets on sound stages, which reduces cost, but the show also shoots on location around Europe. That creates logistical challenges that would bring other shows to their knees.
On top of that, you have all of the VFX required to bring the dragons to life and give them something to do. Can you imagine House of the Dragon with fewer dragons? That's what you're asking for if you want a shorter gap between season 3 and season 4.
No other show is doing what House of the Dragon is doing by bringing these dragons to life. The battle sequences, while we would love more, are so good. If you cut down the time between seasons, you directly impact the ability to bring the dragons and big battles to life. Without those two things, House of the Dragon is basically every other fantasy show with stellar actors.
House of the Dragon would likely have to make even more changes from Fire & Blood
House of the Dragon already endures a barrage of criticism for making weird choices with the story from George R.R. Martin's Fire & Blood. Now, some of those changes are necessary for budget reasons. Other changes happen for story reasons. Condal and his team don't necessarily know all the ins and outs of some of these characters because Fire & Blood is not like A Song of Ice and Fire. It reads like a history book because that's what it is.
To roll out House of the Dragon season 4 before 2028, it also requires a lot of money. More hands need to be hired to offset the heavy workload. And, look, no one is getting more money in 2026 for a lot of reasons. So, there would have to be budget cuts, which means cutting out locations, characters, and more, to make everything fit within the budget.
I could drone on and on about the disappointing state of TV and film after the industry disruptions of 2023 and the COVID-19 pandemic, and that would be very boring. The long story short is TV and film production in 2026 are more expensive and simply take longer than they did before the world changed. It started changing before the pandemic, but it's definitely true now.
If you want shorter gaps between seasons of House of the Dragon, you must ask yourself a few questions. How important to you is the source material? Do you really want them to cut more characters, locations, and story? That's what happens when you compress the timeline, which means fewer shooting days, and take away the budget, which means fewer actors, fewer set pieces, and more.
Now, I'm not saying that Condal and his team are above criticism. I have no idea why they make some of the big changes and leave things directly out of the story. I do know that with a smaller budget and less time, more things would end up not happening, and that's not the show I want to watch.
The long waits between seasons make the show bring fans together
There aren't many shows left that bring together the masses. When you watched an episode of Game of Thrones, The Walking Dead, and Breaking Bad, it felt like the rest of the world was watching with you. In the streaming era, there are only a few shows like that. Luckily, House of the Dragon still happens to be one of them that brings the masses together.
No, it's not as popular as Game of Thrones, but it's still pulling huge ratings every week. After that shocking and epic season 3 finale, I don't think fans are going to be deterred from watching season 4 by the time the premiere rolls around sometime in 2028.
As long as House of the Dragon feels like an event, fans are going to tune in. We have seen it over and over again with shows like this and Stranger Things and the big Marvel movies. Fans will tune in if you give them a reason and if it feels like the thing everyone else is doing.
Of course, I would love to see a new season of House of the Dragon every year, but I also think that getting that season every year takes some of the novelty away. You know you can fall behind and catch up. When there's such a long gap between seasons, it feels like you'll miss the moment if you don't pay attention. I don't have any experiments, studies, or analysis to back up that claim, but that's how it feels. There's a sense of urgency to not miss an episode or to avoid spoilers online until you can watch.
With all of this said, there are shows that benefit from new seasons every year. The broadcast shows, like Grey's Anatomy, and others still pull huge numbers. They are fundamentally different shows from House of the Dragon, but the passion for those shows is still there. Other streamers, like Apple TV, have great success with their shows that land new seasons every year. Even HBO wants to reduce the time between seasons of A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms. There's an annual release model of TV that still works, for sure.
I just don't think it works for House of the Dragon for all the reasons listed above. We would lose epic VFX and action sequences. Even more key characters and storylines would be lost. Plus, absence makes the heart grow fonder. I'll be watching House of the Dragon season 4 if it takes two years, but I'll also be watching if it takes 10 years. I might whine and complain a little, but the way I see things, it's a miracle we even get the pleasure of watching something like this at all.
We'll share more updates for House of the Dragon season 4 as we find out! Stay tuned for more news about the final season of the series.
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